2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[Philsmania]

MLBTR is not reporting on it and they usually have a pretty reliable radar. I'm always skeptical of lone voices--with "sources", no less--on Twitter.

[zambonir]

Seems safe to say the guy with less than 3,000 followers who claims to have "broken" the Bryce Harper and Joe Girardi news isn't really a good source. Especially if none of the usual suspects haven't even tried to chase this down in the last six hours.

But the rumor would fit the Phillies position, which is that they'd only go over the tax for a really good opportunity. Ryu is very good and two years would be a good opportunity. Arrieta leaving gets you back under the tax next year and then you have the $ to play with again in 2022 w/o Ryu.

I think he's still getting his 3-4 years. Surely the Dodgers would do that.

[allentown]

It's very possibly true. But... it's far different to make an offer than to have your offer accepted, especially when your offer is half what was expected in years. I hope the Phillies haven't returned to their old PR habits of making 'offers' to calm critics. I well remember the huge offer, reportedly made to and spurned by Scott Rolen. From everything I've read then and after the fact, that 'offer' was purely imaginary and solely for PR purposes to paint Scott as the bad guy. When the Phillies actually do make a significant signing, it tends to be very clear, quite fast, that they have done so.

[andyb]

If it is any consolation most of our analytics staff was probably in preschool when that Rolen offer was made.

[zambonir]

I seriously would not read anything into this random tweet, let alone insight into the Phillies' process (or history) or PR strategy. Besides, it they (or Boras) wanted this out there just to have it out there (or for any reason) we'd be getting it from real baseball writers.

[allentown]

The analytics staff may be salivating for this signing, but not their decision. This is ownership and whether or not they will go over the cap by $10-15 mill. It seems every major Cuban who signed thid decade did not sign with us, but management made sure we heard that the Phillies had done their due diligence and made a fair offer.

[zambonir]

There ain't no signing! Or offer.

Would love to be wrong. I don't imagine we'll find out before Christmas if so.

As Andy noted:

Ken Rosenthal on Twitter

So we'd probably have to go $23-24 AAV for two years. And even at 21 if you still want Bettances (or similar) you're gonna wind up going over by more than $20 million (adding a 12% charge).

I doubt Klentak and MacPhail want to make another deal like this. So it's not only up to Middleton to go over the tax, he'd also be the guy talking to Boras (as with Keuchel and Harper).

[andyb]

Not much new, but an overview of the changes in the infield from Fangraphs:

The Phillies Have Been Putting Together an Infield With a Bunch of Pieces

[schillingfan]

Well, that article really left me feeling confident about Phillies management.

[allentown]

Yes, we've not had good results playing our players out of position, but that remains our organizational philosophy.

[zambonir]

In theory, if everyone is healthy, they are putting everyone where they belong this year, just not until Bohm gets here (and Kingery simply remains the same multi-tool, technically not in the starting eight. Of course he could also still be our SS again next year (since they clearly think he's a better SS than Segura and Segura is a better 2B than shortstop).

But their philosophy certainly didn't prompt them to try Hernandez on the other side of the IF, or be willing to play Dickerson or Williams in CF (and Cutch only reluctantly). The good defensive players can do it. Herrera was a 2B. I couldn't even tell you what position Nick Senzel plays at the moment. It's kind of crazy to think that the Hoskins to LF experiment never happens - so maybe Santana never happens - if they hadn't originally done it to also keep Joseph in the line-up in 2017.

[Austinfan]

There's some luck involved, Franco was developing into a solid 3B, with a big half season at 22 and respectable at 23 until he lost his mind (well, at least the ability to hit).
Hernandez steadily improved until he didn't, that is, his 2016-17 seasons, instead of setting his baseline, became his high water mark at age 26-27.

Galvis was always a stopgap for Crawford, and that was just a kid who never developed, and while his defense improved, his 86 RC+ and 1.3 WAR suggests they were right to move him. Now maybe he steps up, but I think 3 WAR is probably his ceiling.

But at the time, Franco - Crawford - Hernandez, with Kingery behind them, looked pretty solid.

Segura has his worst season in 4 years and still put up 2.3 WAR, a rebound and move to 2B could get him back over 3.0 again.

Didi buys a year for Bohm to arrive and fit in at 3B.
Then you have Bohm - Kingery - Segura - Hoskins, until Stott arrives in 2022?
Or you resign Didi for a couple years and move Segura.

[David_Criss]

So let me get this straight: Kingery a 2B the team tried to make a CFer is going to play 3B while Segura, a SS is going to play 2B......Wouldn't Segura be better at 3B than Kingery? I still remember when Quinn was on the mound while Velasquez was in left field, so anything is possible

[andyb]

The better alignment is probably Segura at 3B based on tools though Segura has never played there (SS all but one year when he played 2B). Kingery probably has better range and Segura has the better arm at this point.

Remember we have a new manager. I think he goes to Spring Training and tries both players at both positions and then makes a decision there. We also have a 50-50 chance of Bohm claiming 3B at some point, and if that happened I think we definitely want Segura at 2B and Kingery in CF if we don't make any further deals. There may be some logic in not rocking the boat and having Segura learn a new position.

[Lawman]

I think we definitely want Segura at 2B and Kingery in CF

Is that true? Doesn't that depend somewhat on how Haseley/Quinn/Herrerra are playing?

[andyb]

Well obviously if Haseley and/or Quinn is playing well then we would re-think. Maybe trade Segura for some pitching to remain under the threshold at some point. Not expecting anything from Herrera of course, though maybe hoping he latches on somewhere for the minimum and we can then get a nominal few hundred K of room off our salary threshold.

I guess now we are all thinking through the most likely scenarios. And I do think it is likely that Bohm plays well enough in AAA that we will want to recall him. To me that mean the best move for the club will be to continue with Kingery in that utility role. That means Segura is at 2B or trade bait (with us picking up a fair chunk of salary). Hey if we are talking all possibilities, we might trade Hoskins and put Bohm there....

[zambonir]

Yeah the best team has a thriving Bohm and Haseley and Kingery as the 9th guy. He'll get his ABs, especially given Bohm's not here yet. To some extent Kingery gets "punished" for being the best defender, and it could still happen again next year if Segura stays at 2B. Segura also wants to play 2B (must be nice, to be the $14.5 million veteran).

I hope Segura has a good enough season that we want to keep him because 2018 Segura won't be tradeable. The only difference is we'd take nothing for him, to shed as much of the $ as possible, whereas Hernandez was cheap to keep until this year.

I like Harper but I still wonder if we signed the right guy. Always easier to find other OFs but being set at SS for three years (and then moving Manny to 3B when Bohm moves to 1B) would have been nice. And Segura could have just started playing 2B last year (or of course they could have kept Crawford and he would have been the in the Kingery role, if not necessarily CF. But nobody knew that was going to happen last spring).

[BostonRoss]

The probability of Bohm and Haseley both being plus offensive players in 2020 is very small. Even Kingery is not a sure thing, nor are Gregorius, Hoskins, and McCutchen. Even with Harper and Realmuto, this is not likely to be an above average offense.

It seems like the Phillies knew that they would not be contending in 2020 (it was reasonable to assume they would not be adding Cole or Rendon) without some really good luck and made moves that should pay off beyond this coming year (Wheeler) or won't hurt them going forward (Gregorius).

[zambonir]

I too would have preferred to add another bat. But if they're not contending in 2020 they're probably not contending in 2021.

I don't think Haseley has to be a plus offensive player, if he's a plus defensive CF. We'll see. But you've got Kingery or even a deadline acquisition to upgrade there at the deadline if necessary (Haseley could even be optioned if he's struggling).

And sure, if Gregorius, Hoskins, Cutch, Kingery and Segura all falter, they're not even going to contend. At that point you're stuck wondering what to do about Cutch and Segura next year, and Hoskins, going forward, and maybe even re-thinking Realmuto (though I assume he'll put ink to paper early in the season. But (aside from adding Gregorius) they have no choice but to find out.

League-average offense last year was .754 OPS. Phillies were .746 (9th of 15 teams, behind Arizona which had a .757 OPS). Average runs scored was 774 which the Phillies matched exactly (ranked 8th). They were 11th in HRs and 11th in OPB and 9th in OPS. I do think they'll be above average which just means getting to 6th or 7th in those categories. Certainly it could all go wrong.

[andyb]

It really seems that the variable in contending is more on the pitching side. The offense will probably be a bit better with Gregorius and hopefully some bounce back years from veterans that disappointed or were hurt (Hoskins, Cutch, Segura).

The starting pitching could easily get better if Arrieta is back to where he was 2 years ago and Wheeler duplicates his last couple of years. That would also give us time to see if Eflin, Velasquez, and Pivetta (and maybe Howard at midseason) are worthy of rotation spots or need to be replaced. The bullpen of course is another variable though we still probably add a pitcher or two there. It is the starting rotation where it seems we can make the biggest improvement and even if we end up one arm short, that is probably a midseason move we could make if it was the final piece.

This franchise absolutely had to spend to the luxury tax. It looks like they are doing that. They also need to buy some time for some prospects. If it ends up at 85 wins then so be it. I still would have preferred them rolling the dice and exceeding the luxury tax threshold but also understand the mindset where they do not. Hopefully they have an open mind and don't essentially throw in the towel like they did last season though. Second half collapses are starting to become a pattern and the front office needs to see that.