2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

zambonir 2019-12-19 18:49:00 UTC #902

It really does turn on Bohm being fast-tracked. He needs to thrive in Lehigh, at least live up to his Reading #s after what he did in the AFL, so that they can get him up in June at the latest. That way they also have 6-8 weeks to see how he does, which determines what else they may or may not have to address.

It is true about the pitching though. Just getting four more wins from Arrieta and Wheeler (two each, that is) and one more from Nola (not too much to ask) would go a long way, and even an adequate bullpen (supported by a better rotation) is gonna be better than what we had in August.

Taudawg 2019-12-19 21:37:49 UTC #903

Small sample size (51 games - 45 starts) - yet so far, 3B appears to be Kingery best position. Segura has zero experience at 3B.

Austinfan 2019-12-19 23:27:45 UTC #904

Basically the pitching has to hold up for half a season, I don't see the same lack of development this year as last year for their AA and AAA pitchers. Last season Pivetta and Velasquez both regressed, Eickhoff couldn't bounce back, SD and Arano got injured, DLS, Irvin, Anderson, Davis, Ramos all failed to step up, Garcia wasn't ready.

Out of all the potential arms, only Suarez showed up, and Hammer for 20 games.
I got to think they'll do better this season, they just have to hit on 2-3 (5th starter, a couple back of the pen guys).

DLS has another season under his belt
Damon Jones, Seabold, Howard are 3 additional LHV starters going into this season
Irvin flashed LOOGY potential
Brogdon has the FB, slider combo with a pasable changeup
Garcia has the stuff and is a year older
Romero, Gilbert, Dohy, Davis and Hernandez from the left side and Hammer, Ramos, Dyer and Russ from the right side.

EDmuch 2019-12-20 00:14:53 UTC #905

Right side looks very weak.

schillingfan 2019-12-20 00:44:50 UTC #906

He’s forgetting Seranthony and Neris.

zambonir 2019-12-20 01:15:20 UTC #907

Joe Sheehan sent out his Phillies preview today, a friend forwarded it to me.

In a nutshell, he actually likes the offense. No holes, even if a few guys are 95 wRC+ at worst. So much so that he thinks they should sign a defensive CF, especially since he also doesn't buy Haseley there. His quote:

It’s the Nick Senzel thing again; show me the team is playing you up the middle because you’re an up-the-middle player, not because they’re out of options and you’re standing there. Haseley played twice as much on the corners as he did in center coming through the Phillies’ system. They knew the player and his skills and they didn’t treat him like a center fielder.

I don't know if that's exactly correct though. Moniak was simply better-suited.

He also doesn't like the rotation, thinks we need to bust the tax for a third starter (he doesn't think Arrieta will come back, or Eflin can sustain last year's strand rate).

Thinks the bullpen is actually a strength, and Girardi will help with both the pen and in general (even though he also thinks Gabe was a scapegoat).

If you subscribe his assessment of the "rebuild" is both withering and accurate.

EDmuch 2019-12-20 01:22:17 UTC #908

I am not forgetting Siranthony. I think he is damaged goods.

bkeich 2019-12-20 02:03:52 UTC #909

I honestly don’t see how someone can see the bullpen as a strength. We have almost no proven pitchers there, only Neris and a bunch of maybes.

The idea that Haseley isn’t really a CF because Moniak was taking up the reps is just silly. Haseley isn’t a corner OF because of playing more innings in the minors in the corner, that just shows a lack of simple understanding of what the franchise was trying to do.

schillingfan 2019-12-20 02:43:10 UTC #910

Actually I was not referring to you, but to AF’s list of pitchers on the roster. I don’t think Seranthony is damaged goods. He’s a pitcher who was overused in his first year as a reliever, and did not require surgery. In fact a predicted a bad year for him with a sore arm. No reason he can’t bounce back after all the rest last year.

mdougherty12 2019-12-20 03:29:27 UTC #911

Haseley actually played a bit more than half of his minor league innings in CF:

CF - 1063.2
LF - 512.0
RF - 354.0

Mickey Moniak has played almost exclusively in CF (90% of his innings), but they haven't always been on the same team.

zambonir 2019-12-20 04:44:58 UTC #912

AF actually mentioned Seranthony (higher in his post). The point of the latter part of his post was to list the guys who might step up and contribute, not the proven guys (he didn't mention Alvarez, Morgan or Arano down there either, and Neris not at all because he's a given and didn't get hurt last year).

But Ramos is not on the Phillies anymore is he?

I think there is good reason to be nervous about Seranthony. Maybe he's fine, like Nola was. Maybe he pitches for six weeks and then has surgery.

I like Sheehan's insight but when you are trying to write about 30 teams there's stuff you just get wrong, and if your info is bad so are your opinions based on the info. He also questioned whether Didi was worth $10 million more than Cesar (if that were the case, no!) and includes Robertson in the bullpen (maybe that's why he's optimistic!)

Last year I think Sheehan predicted Harper would set the MLB career home runs record at CBP. He's off to a slow start.

andyb 2019-12-20 14:38:03 UTC #914

The pitching contributors from the minors this year should be better than last year, though that is not saying much. While Suarez contributed, we really got almost nothing from Irvin, Garcia, Hammer, EDLS, and others. The biggest reason is probably that this group is just not that good. If we salvage a couple of middle relief arms out of that group that will be good.

This year obviously Howard profiles as a much more important and talented contributor. Romero also is a potential plus contributor out of the bullpen to me if they do that conversion (stuff plays up - could be a 2-inning LHP that sits in the 94-95 range out of the bullpen). I am not buying Jones as a serious contributor yet and Dohy probably needs another year learning command. Seabold is another 5th starter/AAAA option though likely not much more.

But Howard and Romero may be more talented than anyone we brought up last year and getting one of VV and Pivetta to be a plus bullpen arm seems plausible too. We still need to add a veteran arm or two, but I think there will be some discount options on the market in January that might sign for $2 million and incentives.

Austinfan 2019-12-20 16:50:36 UTC #915

I thin you're selling Seabold short, he's up to 91-95, which is more than good enough for a back of the rotation starter, and actually out pitched Howard in the AFL, which is a hitter's league. He doesn't have to be the next Nola to help this team, a better Kendrick would be just fine.

If the farm system could have provided a couple middle RPs last year, it would have been a big help.
My candidate this year is Brogdon, flying under the radar. Hammer is another good shot for that role.

I wouldn't sell Arrieta short, bone spurs aren't a career ender, just a season killer. He'll have plenty of time to heal before ST and throwing without pain will not only help his velocity but his mental approach as well, he may not be the guy he was in Chicago, but all we need from him is one season as a solid #3 before Howard is ready.

bigegypt0417 2019-12-20 17:16:40 UTC #916

I think with Seabold you'll need to wait for some continued success at the higher levels before we decided anything. If he does continue to progress then you may have someone for the back of the rotation in 2021.

BostonRoss 2019-12-20 17:33:02 UTC #917

zambonir:

I too would have preferred to add another bat. But if they're not contending in 2020 they're probably not contending in 2021.

I don't think Haseley has to be a plus offensive player, if he's a plus defensive CF. We'll see. But you've got Kingery or even a deadline acquisition to upgrade there at the deadline if necessary (Haseley could even be optioned if he's struggling).

And sure, if Gregorius, Hoskins, Cutch, Kingery and Segura all falter, they're not even going to contend. At that point you're stuck wondering what to do about Cutch and Segura next year, and Hoskins, going forward, and maybe even re-thinking Realmuto (though I assume he'll put ink to paper early in the season. But (aside from adding Gregorius) they have no choice but to find out.

League-average offense last year was .754 OPS. Phillies were .746 (9th of 15 teams, behind Arizona which had a .757 OPS). Average runs scored was 774 which the Phillies matched exactly (ranked 8th). They were 11th in HRs and 11th in OPB and 9th in OPS. I do think they'll be above average which just means getting to 6th or 7th in those categories. Certainly it could all go wrong.

I wouldn't go so far as to say they couldn't contend in 2021 if they don't content in 2020. They will have money coming off the books after 2020 that can be used to improve the team, and Bohm and Howard are more likely to contribute in 2021.

I also am not expecting all of Gregorius, Hoskins, Cutch, Kingery and Segura to falter though I am not expecting them all to succeed, either. When you have a large number of question marks, usually some work out and some don't.

I don't expect the Phillies to be above a league average offense as presently constituted. They've essentially replaced Hernandez, Franco, Dickerson, and Milller with Gregorius and more of Cutch and Haseley. That just doesn't seem like a big improvement to me.

andyb 2019-12-20 17:40:12 UTC #918

Seabold generally sits in the low 90s. 92-93. Decent slider (not plus) and his other pitches are below average at this point. I think his best rating was 15th in our system in that recent Baseball HQ list with a 7C projection which is a 50% chance of being an average regular which to me is back end starter.

His stock has risen in the last few months because he got healthy and had some success in Arizona. At the same time though the stuff is pedestrian and he'll be 24 making his AAA debut so he is not super young. Scouts in Arizona did not put him on any of the best of Arizona lists, so they seem skeptical of his stuff too. There is just no reason to think he is any better than a Cole Irvin type at this point and Irvin is likely a middle reliever (though maybe can succeed in this role).

Let's celebrate the good in that Howard and Romero could be better than any pitcher we brought up last year. Everybody else is a question mark as to who can contribute on a major league roster and Howard and Romero of course are question marks too. It is just not a deep system on which we could count on a steady stream of major league performers at this point. Medina's disappointing year will not help either. I wonder if at some point they pare him back to a bullpen role as well since they seem to want to build up a harder throwing back end of the bullpen.

bigegypt0417 2019-12-20 17:49:54 UTC #919

This is the closest he came to being on a list...

andyb 2019-12-20 17:51:01 UTC #920

Rosenthal hedging on his $80 million number for Ryu:

At the time, two people with knowledge of the starting-pitching market predicted Ryu would receive a minimum of four years, $80 million. But two others expressed skepticism about that prediction after I published it, citing Ryu’s age (he will pitch next season at 33) and injury history (he averaged just 53 1/3 innings from 2015 to ’18, missing all of ’15 due to a shoulder injury that required surgery, before working 182 2/3 last season).

Austinfan 2019-12-20 17:55:44 UTC #921

Connor Seabold, RHP, Phillies No. 30: 17 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 22 K, 1.06 ERA, .125 BAA, 0.59 WHIP
While he made just four AFL starts, Seabold showed his stuff and advanced feel for pitching will facing advanced hitters. He mixed his solid fastball with life, a slider with good depth and a very good changeup successfully across all of his outings.

Sounds like Seabold has been refining his secondary stuff.

andyb 2019-12-20 17:57:25 UTC #922

I am not really down on Seabold. It is just nobody in baseball thinks he is more than a back end of the rotation type of projection. Just trying to be realistic. The reality is that our minor league system is not that good for various reasons (promotions, trades, bad drafting, down period in Latin America). It needs to get better. We just should not count on it, especially our high minors prospects, to make the big club much better.

Most teams have a half dozen arms in the high minors that might contribute each year. When you run through close to 30 pitchers each year you need them. I just don't think the half dozen names we might promote are better than average compared to other clubs.