2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[zambonir]

They just have to get Betances down to $6-7 million. Any more than that and they'd actually have to trade Pivetta or Velasquez (or Bruce) Clearly they are not going to go over the tax for a 4th starter and reliever. They can go over it in July when they acquire Mookie Betts and Robbie Ray

But the point of Bettance is he should be cheaper and shorter-term. You're paying for high upside high risk but the Girardi connection aside you could also just get Will Harris or Daniel Hudson. MLBTR sees those guys as two-year $5-6 million and Bettances as $7 million.

Hunter's gone, CD. I'd actually try to bring him back on a minor league deal given the limitations!

[andyb]

It would be interesting if they got Betances for that and tried to squeeze him in with a secondary move like Bruce or Velazquez or Pivetta. Not sure the Bruce move would do enough (replacing him with Williams saves only a little more than a million). And moving VV or Pivetta would increase the need to add another starter.

One also assumes we'll need a few million for DL replacements. I guess if they got Betances it is more likely they exceed the threshold. Whether that means they try to get under during the season or then would be free to add another starter like Keuchel is unclear. If they tried to get under during the season it might be a dual move of promoting Howard or Bohm while then moving a player with more salary at the same time.

[zambonir]

What is the actual rule, you just can't be over the threshold at the end of the season?

I thought Bruce's tax hit for the Phillies was 2.75 million. Williams would still be minimum, no? (Though I don't necessarily think it would be Williams. Miller - though he would obviously make more - could also take that spot.)

They could probably delay this decision until the end of spring training. See which guy wins the last rotation spot and trade or release the other one. MIght be hard to sign Smyly though, even on a minor league deal his major league guarantee would probably have to be $6-8 million.

Be a lot easier if Suarez or Irvin could actually be the 5th starter. You get your lefty and you save the money. And you could probably get a reliever plus a modest prospect if you did trade Pivetta or VV.

Still can't rule out trading Segura, even at the deadline if Bohm comes up (though I think that would be challenging and if he's playing well you wouldn't want to).

[mdougherty12]

I thought Bruce's tax hit for the Phillies was 2.75 million. Williams would still be minimum, no?

Cot's has Bruce's CBT value for 2020 as $1.375 million.

[andyb]

It is not a cap like the NHL so the team can be on a pace to be over the threshold during the year.

Example - we go $10 million over and then find a taker for Arrieta at the ASB and save $12 million of his pro-rated AAV. That would technically get us under even if it is a fictional scenario. We might also have an injury and promote someone like Gosselin who makes more than the major league minimum to take a roster spot. That money for Gosselin would add to our competitive balance threshold number since he is not under the limit now.

Only point is that if they went into the year only a few million over they still might have options to get under during the year if they chose to (or they could go further over in a trade). We don't have any relievers near as good as Betances, so if he would take a $7 million deal I think we have to consider it.

[Lawman]

Not that I disagree with this in anyway, @allentown but as between Bryant or Arenado, which are you willing to include Bohm in a package for?

[allentown]

Yes, it is fun to dream on either of those guys on the Phillies, but we can't afford them. Arenado is $35 million for the next 4 seasons and then another $60 mill total over the next 2 years. Bryant would only be for 2 years, and likely around $16 mill this season and $20 mill next. If ownership wanted to, they could certainly make that work, but he'd have to be willing to blow by the lux tax limit by at least $10 million and go with a pitching staff with a lot of holes.. Bohm certainly won't get the deal done, so it depends on the rest of the package. We are adding stars, so we need low-$ homegrown positive WAR contributors, so we can't just keep trading them away. I'd include Bohm in the right package for Bryant, realizing that our window in narrowed substantially by the farm gutting. The next two years are likely our best shot this cycle, anyway and Bohm may have to be on 1B or LF after those two years. After two years, Bryant is going to want more years/$ than we can pay him. I do not put Howard in the trade.

[Lawman]

@Allentown - You and I agree, but I'm having fun playing the speculation game. Because, why not?

I'd be more inclined to trade for Arenado, money aside. I think he's a higher ceiling talent then Bryant it.

[andyb]

Arenado is certainly much more likely to stay at 3B if one is thinking long term. I just don't think dealing for either is realistic. I think I prefer to roll the dice with Bohm and hope he is good enough defensively (pretty sure he'll have the offense at 3B to help us).

[zambonir]

We don't have any relievers near as good as Betances, so if he would take a $7 million deal I think we have to consider it.

I would say we don't have any relievers as proven as Betances. That in and of itself doesn't always work out, but since we are talking about a guy who's recovering from both upper body injuries and an Achilles, he seems like as much of a crapshoot as Seranthony or Arano.

Of course that's why you get him for Tommy Hunter money instead of David Robertson money.

[andyb]

His velocity was off about 3 mph when he came back in September (2 batters, hitting 95). That could easily be arm strength that would recover more. Still had a good 10 mph separation with his breaking ball that was also a plus pitch.

Clearly we don't know if he could come back all the way, but the assumption here is that we would get a discount AND he passes a physical. I love the fact that he misses bats and keeps the ball in the park. I think he knows how to pitch even if his stuff never quite recovers to what it was. Neris really does not keep the ball in the park when he misses. I like Neris as more of a setup man than a closer (though ideally I want a manager who does not care who his closer was and strives to use his best pitchers in the most important situations).

[fish]

They need to stockpile relievers to see what shakes out from every potential avenue. Waiver wire pickups alone won't make this group look any better.

[phillychuck]

I think a major part of the Phils' reliever problems is that they don't know how to separate the good relievers from the bad ones during the "shake out" period. Hope the new coaching staff helps with that.

[allentown]

$7 million for Betances spends all we have available to spend. That seems a big bet on first year back from injury. Often the team that does a 1 year deal with such a player just pays for his not-very-good-get-healthy-and-strong-again season. A post up above says relievers are almost all fungible. I think that's true, especially for guys coming back off of injury. Yes, it may just be a question of regaining strength, but a 3 mph loss on the FB isn't trivial. If we sign Betances, and stick to a budget under the cap, that means any other relievers we try out will be a cattle call of AAAA guys.

[schillingfan]

Becaus Relief Pitchers destined for the DL are kind of our thing?

There is no such thing as a reliable, noninjured reliever. If he is good, the manager will overuse his arm, constantly going back to the well. Signing a reliever coming off a good year is fool’s gold.

[andyb]

On the positive side, Girardi does have a good reputation for not abusing his bullpen. He really tries to not use players 3 days in a row, plus have more 2-inning outings and fewer overall outings. His reputation at least is managing for the long haul and not the immediate game.

[zambonir]

It is hard to know what they will or should do without being certain of the financial intentions/options. If the threshold is inviolate for now, it's about choices.

Would you rather have one Betance at $8 milion or two Pat Neshek/Tommy Hunter types (circa 2016 that is, financially)?

Is it more important to have a proven late-inning reliever than to keep both Velasquez and Pivetta (whether it's as 6th starter or reliever)?

And what about the bench, is it truly set or might they need $1-2 million to fill it out? We don't even know what Harrison's major league salary might be, or if Miller's in the mix.

I don't think the Phillies had any problem recognizing good relievers. They may or may not have overused some guys, but it really is a crapshoot. Overuse a young guy and you say, oh, his body wasn't ready. Overuse an old guy and it's, oh, he didn't have enough miles left. Three years ago I couldn't have told you which of Arano, Rios, Ramos and Morgan would turn into something/have staying power. And it's no easier with all but the best veterans (i.e. your Luis Garcias. To say nothing of a Joely Rodriguez!)

I'm optimistic some of the youth and waiver guys will produce this season; the question marks are more the proven but injured guys.

[julio]

Just saw this. No idea how reliable...

Vin on Twitter

[andyb]

I guess if you exceed the threshold you might as well exceed it by up to $20 million (where a 12% surtax kicks in). Not sure I believe it of course.

FWIW the expectation out there is that he was looking at 4-year deals that would exceed the $17 million AAV that Madison Bumgarner got with Rosenthal tweeting that it could go as high as 4/80. 2/42 would not get it done if that were the case.

[Lawman]

Ryu on a 2 year deal...he's got durability/health issues, so 2 years is the maximum I'd sign him for. Would give the Phillies a good lefty in the rotation.

Nola
Wheeler
Ryu
Arrieta
Eflin

Not bad.