2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[zambonir]

Interesting I knew they were close in age, didn't realize he was actually older.

I think the 2019 team was better than that. The offense as constituted, even without McCutchen and a reliable CF, still would have won 86 games with a better bullpen and one other consistent starter (a healthy Arrieta or an Eflin who didn't hit a rough patch). Heck, even Nola could have (should have?) been two wins better without necessarily pitching like he did the year before, between his bumpy start and poor finish.

The thing is, if Cutch begins to level off (and I don't think he will be better, even w/o the injury - a 2016/2018 type year seems most likely), Hoskins is a bust, Segura continues trending downward and Kingery is merely a solid regular (he wound up exactly average OPS+, and awful OBP) signing someone like Rendon (per Rosenthal, he wants 7 years) is probably a waste of money, because that team isn't going to the World Series anyway.

I am not someone who necessarily think the coaching staff makes a difference either but they fired three people, so they'd better.

[BostonRoss]

Segura really didn't have that bad a season compared to his previous performance. He was .280/.323/.420 compared to lifetime numbers of .286/.326/.406, In 2018 he was .304/.341/.415, a bit better, but not all that much.

[BostonRoss]

I'm thinking less about how much better the 2019 team would have been with better injury luck than I am comparing the projected 2020 team to the 2019 team than played, whose performance we know. Looking at the injured players who are coming back, how much improvement do we expect from (hopefully) a full year of McCutchen, compared to the what we got from LF last season, including Bruce, Dickerson, Haseley, etc. I would like to think that at least one of Seranthony and Morgan will return to form, but it seems a big ask to expect both to come back all the way (especially Morgan, who's about to turn 30 and has never really had a very good year). Arrieta ended up missing only 7 or 8 starts though he had a few toward the end that were clearly injury-affected. His WAR was 2 below 2018, and so maybe we could get that back if he's healthy.

So I am looking at maybe an 85 win team. They could certainly be better with good things happening such as a Hoskins comeback, a 2018 Nola, and no backsliding by the likes of Neris or Kingery.

How many more wins might we expect from the addition of a Rendon? I guess the odd man out of the lineup would be Haseley, so may 5 more wins? That puts them in the 90 range even without above average luck.

[allentown]

You don't seem to have accounted for the addition of Wheeler, which is an added 2-3 wins. It might actually be more than that, because the starting pitching last season was so bad that it was one of the things pulling down the bullpen. It would be great to have Rendon. I don't see it happening. You are correct that his addition would be the serious upgrade to the line-up that Gregorius would not come close to being.

[BostonRoss]

I did include Wheeler in my thinking but did indeed forget to list him in my post. I had been thinking that the 2019 team was really a bit below average (even though they did finish at .500), and that Wheeler, Arrieta's return, and maybe something from Seranthony/Morgan could get us to 85 wins.

Maybe I am a bit conservative in my thinking. I am usually more of an optimist, but I am not feeling it right now.

[zambonir]

I think it is a really fine line between "in for a penny in for pound" and "good money after bad." Maybe we ultimately get Betts or Lindor (in the future) if we don't get Rendon. Or maybe they have to blow it up completely before 2021 if this core doesn't cut it..no Cutch no Segura no Hoskins. Maybe not even Realmuto (thought I still assume he will be extended and kept).

[BostonRoss]

If they are really serous about cutting payroll, maybe the Red Sox would entertain a Betts deal centered on Hoskins? They don't really have a first baseman now (they could play Michael Chavis there, but they might need him at 2B since Pedroia's return is very iffy, and Holt is a FA). They also might move J.D. Martinez to the OF if they trade Betts, and Hoskins is really better suited to DH. The Sox might prefer a major league ready player than someone who won't help this year.

Probably pie in the sky, but the Sox won't get a huge haul for a one-year rental.

[nycphils]

The offense as constituted, even without McCutchen and a reliable CF, still would have won 86 games with a better bullpen and one other consistent starter (a healthy Arrieta or an Eflin who didn't hit a rough patch).

Biggest risk to the offense is that Harper was unusually great in high leverage situations (only about 115 ABs) - 1.037 OPS, 10 HR, 50 RBI. He’s unlikely to repeat that.

[zambonir]

The Sox seem to have a lot of balls in the air (JBJ, Benintedi, Price, Eovaldi).

I've always felt that Klentak likely had a major trade in him this off-season, having made two last year. Hoskins as a trade piece is interesting, you're selling low but in a salary-dump deal his value is service time and upside as much as recent performance. No one is truly untouchable besides Harper and JT.

Salisbury joining Gelb in countering the national gossip guys with realism.

Phillies officials head to winter meetings looking for an infield bat

The Phils had probed the market for third basemen and, according to sources, had seriously pursued Mike Moustakas before he signed with Cincinnati. The Phils are still monitoring the markets for free-agent third basemen Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rendon, but don’t get too excited because they appear to be more interested bystanders than active pursuers.

__There is competition for Gregorius. If the Phillies don't sign him, they look at Starlin Castro, Todd Frazier or Brock Holt as short-term fits at third base or other infield spots.

Even with Wheeler on board, the Phillies will continue to look for more pitching, though any further additions will probably come from the third and fourth tiers of the market. The Phils are speeding toward the $208 million luxury tax threshold and Wheeler, by all indications, will be their top wintertime expenditure.

[BostonRoss]

Yeah, it's hard to know what the Sox will do. I was a little surprised they tendered JBJ since even if they trade him, I don't think they'll much of a return. We don't know what Bloom's strategy is, but it seems to me as likely as not the Sox will roll the dice and hope for rebounds from Sale and Price, and if so they could keep Betts and let him walk. They did that with Ellsbury in 2013.

Of course, any hypothetical trade suggestion like this has an extremely low probablity of happening. I would like the Phillies to think creatively, and the idea of trading Hoskins is appealing even though hsi value is down from a year ago. He probably isn't an important part of the Phils' long term future, and he has value because he's still cheap and controllable for a while.

Part of my dreaming is probably related to the fact that I have a selfie with Mookie!

[zambonir]

I'm ok with dreaming on any 6 WAR player at one of the Phillies' two obvious positions of need!

To NYC's point, Harper is usually pretty good with RISP no matter what. He also had a lot of valleys... and would have had an even better season if we'd been a better OBP team (despite that supposedly being an emphasis, but once Cutch went down there wasn't really anyone else besides Hoskins). The real question is, will he ever approach his overall 2017 or 2015 numbers again? He is getting paid to be that 5-6 WAR player but could probably go in either direction this season (last year he was 4.2).

[mdougherty12]

The offense as constituted, even without McCutchen and a reliable CF, still would have won 86 games with a better bullpen and one other consistent starter (a healthy Arrieta or an Eflin who didn't hit a rough patch).

Biggest risk to the offense is that Harper was unusually great in high leverage situations (only about 115 ABs) - 1.037 OPS, 10 HR, 50 RBI. He’s unlikely to repeat that.

Harper had large splits with respect to RISP/nobody on in 2018, too. I would guess that the effects of defensive shifts account for a sizeable chunk of that observation. Ryan Howard generally had huge splits for RISP/nobody on, probably for similar reasons.

[zambonir]

You mean it's not PURE CLUTCH? There must be data for that, though maybe not a large enough body that's public.

[Austinfan]

Harper isn't being paid to be a 6 WAR player, he's being paid to be a 4 WAR player well into his 30s.
I use a more conservative $7.5M per WAR, but even then, 4 WAR is $30M a year.

I'd rather have (2) 4 WAR players than a 6 WAR player and be forced to play a replacement level (0 WAR) player due to budget constraints.

[zambonir]

I don't really care about WAR costs per se. He is signed to the kind of contract that calls for multiple All-Star appearances and an MVP candidacy or two, though it's more on the Phillies than him if he's unable to do that in this middle portion of his career. He was excellent, the plays hard, he sells tickets but if you've got one of the 10 highest-paid players in all of baseball you'd like to have one of the 10 highest-WAR players in baseball too. Especially if you're up against the CBT threshold with no young players over-delivering WAR (though we very much need Kingery and Hoskins to do just that).

4 WAR "well into his 30s" also seems like a pipe dream. He's 27 now. In great shape, lives clean, but has also played 8 years already, so may have already hit his peak (I hope not, but the numbers say yes for now. And most 27 year-olds who are at their peak have only played 5-6 years, or less).

When Harper is 32, 33 we'll be happy/lucky to have 2-3 WAR, he won't be playing great defense (or maybe not RF at all) by then either. But that's a problem to worry about later.

[Austinfan]

Harper can sustain 4 WAR for an extended period, while he may lose some range, he has RF arm.
And he has the batting eye to remain effective as a hitter well into his 30s.

What he'll probably have to do is sacrifice tape measure HRs for more consistent contact, which he should do in any case, while it's gratifying to hit the ball 450+ feet, a shorter, quicker stroke would result in more consistent power.

[zambonir]

Not familiar with this reporter, but not some rando blogger with 2,000 followers at least.

Bruce Levine on Twitter

[andyb]

Writers tend to connect us to every big dollar player even if it does not make sense. The part that does not make sense is parting with the prospects needed to get him. There are more credible rumors out there with Bryant and the Braves because they do seem to have the prospect base and the payroll room.

[zambonir]

I will take the report at face value - that they talked. Which is not really anything. And that it's not a match at this time. Which will probably remain true.

But it's also not impossible. Obviously it starts with Bohm. Would they have any interest in Hoskins? Segura to help with money? But the big question would be what the 2nd or 3rd prospect piece might be. And it seems impossible to make a fair offer w/o resolving the grievance, unless a conditional deal is possible.

Phillies did well last the last two years, even though they didn't get results (and overpaid some for Santana) because it was a cold market. Not a cold market this year, it seems.

[andyb]

If there is a possibility the grievance would give him free agency in 1 year as opposed to 2 then his valuation would change accordingly. 2 years probably means we would need to include Howard in addition to Bohm. At 1 year it might be Medina instead.