2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[zambonir]

Right, but when will the decision be handed down? Could be next week, could be February. And if he wins, would you even be able to trade Bohm for him (unless the deal led to an extension)?

Seems to me the grievance has to be all-or-nothing, right-or-wrong, not just, "yeah, this was squirrelly but we're only going to award you lost salary and damages."

[Austinfan]

So we'll have Harper, Bryant, Nola and Wheeler, and nothing else for the next five years.

[zambonir]

That's the same thing we have now, except without Bryant (though don't forget JT, assuming his extension is a given).

Signing Rendon would certainly be a better move than trading for + extending Bryant (or Lindor).

[zambonir]

Scott Lauber on Twitter

[ahb]

No idea what it would take in the end, but if we get two years of control and we could do a deal that is Bohm, Medina, Segura and one other prospect that is not Howard or Stott, then I'd be very interested.

Then sign Didi and that's a heck of a lineup.

[zambonir]

Or you just keep Segura and don't sign Didi. Either way the main thing is you're going with Haseley (and whoever else) in CF with Kingery committed to the infield. That seems like of an issue with Bryant (or Rendon) in your offense than with Didi.

Philly.com reported today that there's no trade interest in Herrera.

[fish]

What are the chances Klentak would actually play the game of trying to manage with an eye towards accumulating draft picks and just give Didi a large 1 year deal? None of they really care about the tax, but that seem like an artificial boundary if they were to go over just a little

[Dirk41]

Just feels like with Boras and the Phils warming up to one another last year, Bryant is within reach.

[Lawman]

Oh, definitely Bryant is in reach. But, no way the Cubs can trade him until they know his value. And, won't know that until the grievance is heard. Unless he wants so badly to be out of there that he drops his grievance, which I doubt will happen.

[bkeich]

I guess one way they could get around the whole mess is to sign him to a 2 year, split the difference type contract. Basically buy out 1 year of FA (if he would have been) at near market value in order to facilitate a trade. 2/22? More?

If the Cube really want to move him they might have to do something like that. It would also avoid the really bad precedent of this court case.

[andyb]

That certainly is a good idea, though I wonder if the contract would have to be something like a 7-year deal (around what Rendon will get) now. Looking at Bryant the last couple of years he is starting to get hurt more and starting to be a sub-par defensive player in both the OF and at 3B. I suppose he could play 1B for the Phillies, but he really does not look to be a defensive upgrade on Bohm there even now.

If you are Bryant, you really want the long term deal now or at most after a prove himself healthy single season because in 2 years some teams might look at him as a DH.

[fish]

Would I be correct that the calculation the phillies have 20 million to spend under the tax is based on the assumption that Realmuto would get something like 7 million in arb? But if he signs an extension the average annual value will likely be more like 17 - 20 million.
I think the talk of staying under the luxury tax is just lip work for bargaining and to manage expectations after how the show Middleton put on last winter. They would have to load up on retreads to fill out the rest of the roster to stay under.

[andyb]

I think they have been using the arbitration estimates from MLB rumors. Cot's does this and has $18.2 million left to spend with an $11 million arbitration estimate.

One thing the Phillies could do to get a little more room would be to agree on a 1-year deal below that estimate with the understanding that the money would be made up in the subsequent long term deal where the AAV would apply to 2021 and beyond if the deal were signed after opening day.

Cots:

MLB Philadelphia 20

[Lawman]

Pirates are looking for young, controllable, catchers. Would packaging Grullon in any deal for Marte make any sense?

[David_Criss]

Grullon and Medina along with Haseley has been rumored to have been discussed with them for Marte. I have to think the Pirates could get a lot ore than that for Marte.

[zambonir]

Yeah supposedly the plan is not to extend JT until after spring training so it won't count against the 2020 AAV.

I agree it seems hard for them to not bust the tax. Didi could cost as much as $18-20 million if he takes a one-year deal and even if he takes $14-15 million you still need two pitchers, and probably a bench piece. They could nip and tuck in a few spots but otherwise trading Segura (and then picking up someone much more cheaply, like Holt or Schoop) the only other way.

[fish]

Yeah supposedly the plan is not to extend JT until after spring training so it won't count against the 2020 AAV.

Ok, So if I'm reading the rules correctly, after he signs for this coming year through the arbitration process or whatever, then they can do a good ol' fashioned Ryan Howard-style extension that starts later, so the only obstacle to that is getting the 2019 contract resolved. It probably costs the Phils more in contract value to do it that way- maybe even more than the luxury tax implications to just do the extension now.

[zambonir]

I think they will quietly agree to terms on both his 2019 salary and the outlines of his extension, then sign it at the end of spring training or whatever the cut-off is. And yeah it might cost them more in real money by not giving him a bigger raise (spread out over the longer deal) this season.

The reality is I think MIddleton is happy to write bigger checks/spend money. Not going over the CBT is still as much about politics as economics.

[bigegypt0417]

That seems like either enough or a little too much for Marte...two ML ready prospects and a pitcher with a live arm is a good return.

[Philsmania]

Dellin Betances may be inclined to stay in NY, either with the Yankees or Mets.

MLB Winter Meetings Notebook: Dellin Betances to ultimately choose between Mets...