Indeed, a lot has to go right. It almost reminds me of some of the Lee Thomas/Wade years in that sense. But it's not that bad of course. Also, we don't really know what moves are coming still. And I don't think Gregorius is a downgrade from Hernandez. He's younger and better, just coming off surgery.
This is an expensive team of hitters in the prime of their career (if on the wrong side of their peak). Only McCutchen is "old" (and could have a glitchy year regardless, just as Didi did last year). If Hoskins, Harper, Realmuto, McCutchen, Kingery and one new addition don't have good seasons the team is not going anywhere anyway. But I still believe last year's team could have won 86-90 games. It may be rare for everything to go right but it's pretty rare for all three things (pen, starters, hitters) to go so dramatically wrong too.
If this season is a bust than not only did the rebuild fail, but the three years of being post-rebuild failed, i.e. the draft picks were lost for nothing, Crawford and Sanchez and Alfaro were lost for nothing and (as is already the case) we hung onto a lot of players who provided neither production nor trade value. That's why they shoudln't shy away from the tax. Being one piece away from the World Series shouldn't be the only reason.
But it's also entirely reasonable to think they can compete for the WC and the division and see what they need in July. With money and assets saved for then.
The funny thing is, the actions of the team say they thought the players were already there, that it was the fault of the field staff. Middleton's theory is a new manager will make the same team better. Klentak's theory is that luck/health/adjustments will make the same team better. But it's not gonna be the same team, and already isn't.
Our roster is basically frozen until Thursday (unless they sign a FA or already have guys on waivers) so I wouldn't put much stock in the gossip mill in the meantime.
Nightengale does claim to have two sources, FWIW.
