2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[zambonir]

That's your personal assessment of Eflin but you're also not wrong.

The bullpen does strike me as the biggest question assuming Gregorius is actually coming. Are they going to pass on a Hudson, Betances etc. and just go with all the unproven/converted starters in hand? I think Irvin and even Pivetta could still wind up in AAA as the 6th starter/long man (since Suarez is the third LHP in the pen for now).

[andyb]

That's your personal assessment of Eflin but you're also not wrong.

Of course it is. But it is also looking at every news story that assumes Eflin is head and shoulders above everybody else and that is off a stretch of a half dozen starts last year that were really not definitive. He is a pitcher who gives up a lot of hits and does not really miss bats. He is useful because he is better at pitching deep in games than his competition but he is just clearly not head and shoulders above that competition.

VV's off speed pitches regressed a bit last year so that could clearly steer him to the bullpen if he does not improve, but he also was good enough for the Phillies to offer him arbitration so there is not really evidence the Phillies don't like him yet. And he had stretches late last year that were also pretty good.

Pivetta is the one that came out of last year messed up. But his stuff may be better than the other two because his breaking pitches were really good 2 years ago. Clearly the staff did not like him last year as well (from the public comments), so the new pitching coach may be key with him.

I just don't buy the fact that the pitcher with the 4.13 ERA (his best ever) that strikes out only 7.1/9 batters is head and shoulders over anybody.

[bigegypt0417]

We can't afford MadBum. Not sure we can even afford Keuchel or Miley. Smyly or one of the one-year, slightly-over-the-hill guys seems more likely.

I'm not really sure that is true...I believe the phillies will surpass the threshold if the right opportunity comes along. With the signing of wheeler, I would find it hard to believe they would pass on taking the next step if it presented itself.

[xogfog]

Agree, because Arrieta comes off the books next year.

[zambonir]

I just tend to think Gelb and Zolecki are pretty good at their jobs:

The front office is operating under a directive to remain below the $208 million threshold that triggers the luxury tax, according to multiple team sources.

That's not vague or speculative or worded in a way that makes you think it came from an agent or another team. That came from up high (at least two people somewhere between an assistant GM and the President). I guess you could interpret it as a leak designed to send a message to agents but that's meaningless if other teams have better offers anyway (as with Hamels).

That doesn't mean Middleton won't change his mind - or do exactly as he said, and bust the tax if he believes it's a situation where the team is one piece away from the World Series. And until they actually sign Gregorius (or not) or trade Segura (or not) it's kind of a moot point. But it's also not entirely up to him, and I'm not sure Middleton is really different than the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers or Nats owners (granted, they have all previously busted the tax, but have moved away from it, and it's practically collusion).

Arrieta coming off the books next year means we can sign another pitcher next year (or maybe pick up some $ in July). I don't think it means they'll happily go over to the tax just because they could be back under next year (and they also have to pay JT next year).

I think they targeted Wheeler because they knew they couldn't afford Cole or Strasburg and they're targeting Gregorius because they can't afford Rendon or Donaldson. To me that $9 million offer to Hamels tells you what they are looking to spend, and on what caliber pitcher. And there's still a bench and bullpen to address. Hope I'm wrong!

[bigegypt0417]

Again...I believe they have marching order but I also believe middleton wrote some verbal checks to Harper and Boras in saying they would spend and be in the top 5 in payroll. I don't think they would want Boras to believe they weren't being truthful. That is not to say that isn't the current message being sent...I believe in the right circumstance they would go higher.

[zambonir]

But they would still be in the Top 5 in payroll without going over the tax. They could be as high as second, even (only three teams exceeded it last year and two of them might get back under. Nats are the only team that might exceed again, but they don't want to either). The threshold is $208 million. The problem is Robertson and Herrera still count, so right now they only have (per Zolecki) $16.5 million left to play with before they've even signed Gregorius. Just signing Gregorius won't even leave them with much left for pitching. To land Gregorius, another top free agent pitcher and additional depth, they would even push into the second level of taxation (past the first $20 million).

All of which they can afford, but that doesn't seem to be the sole issue.

I think Segura's still on the market if they get Gregorius, and trading for a controllable starting pitcher still might be too. Moving Bruce and Velasquez are also options to free up some loose change. Trading Herrera likely wouldn't provide much relief.

[andyb]

Didn't all the reporters report that the Phillies did not want to pay compensation picks for free agents either?

Staying under the luxury tax threshold seems more a desire than a mandate, no matter how it is reported. I think they would prefer a way to stay under through creative trades. That does not mean it is a mandate though.

Is it really much different than the quote in this piece: “I’m more bullish on the farm system than some. One of the things we gotta try not to do, if we can, is to not forfeit draft picks, and that’s hard when you’re fishing in the deep end of the free agent pond. But we’ve lost our second round pick last year and our second and third round picks the year before, and that may not sound like a lot, but that’s where Scott Kingery comes from, that’s where Spencer Howard and Connor Seabold come from. That’s where some good players come from... we gotta try to hang onto that as much as we can.”

How much will the qualifying offer affect the Phillies’ plans for free agency?

[zambonir]

Yeah but that's Klentak talking off the cuff on a radio show during the off-season. This is multiple sources saying something privately the day after they handed out a giant contract (and lost the pick to boot!). I recognize it's not inviolate, and if they've misread the market (i.e. it's most costly/hotter than expected) they may have to change course. But right now I'll be surprised if they go into spring training over the tax. Creative/surprising trades to stay under, yes. If you go back to Middleton's original comments, nothing's changed. We're not one more expensive piece away from winning a championship.

Of course if I'm Klentak I'll spend as much $ and give up as many draft picks as I can at this point. What's it matter to him?

[fish]

Of course if I'm Klentak I'll spend as much $ and give up as many draft picks as I can at this point. What's it matter to him?

Not winning will matter plenty to him if that's what happens and he's given the boot next year. Kind of a bad situation to have your GM be in a must-win position as it can force mistakes, maybe even bigger than the ones that got him into the hole he's in.

[zambonir]

Yup, that's what I'm saying. In reality I think his job is safe until 2021 (which is when MacPhail's contract is up, one year before Klentak's). Assuming this year's team is at least competitive. And it probably should be safe, for these very reasons. You don't want a GM making all kinds of bad short-term moves (at least, no unless you really i a World Series team, like Amaro inherited). But his mistakes are also Middleton's mistakes (not just because he's Middleton's guy but because of the owner involvement in certain contracts. He didn't go recruit Wheeler though!)

[zambonir]

Bob Nightengale on Twitter

[andyb]

Well that sentiment lasted 12 hours.

If they actually added Rendon I might turn around and trade Bohm for a low cost something.

[el-pietro]

Nightengale doesn't have the best track record so I wouldn't read too much into that if hes the only one saying that.

I see Heyman is saying something similar but hes Boras' personal mouthpiece so not exactly a reliable source.

I've probably asked this before but is it possible to trade an injured player? Robertson isn't going to contribute to the Phillies in 2020, is there anyway to get even partial salary relief by moving him to a bad team for a couple of lottery ticket prospects in the lower minors?

[bigegypt0417]

Rendon is exactly what this line-up needs and really gives them an infield that you can win with...i'm having trouble seeing them going all in for him.

[andyb]

He definitely is the patient but still high contact player this lineup can use. If they go all in it is on Middleton. It probably locks them into being over the luxury tax threshold for at least the next 2 years. Beyond that would depend on whether the threshold increases with the new CBA.

The long term issue is still developing good, young regulars that play inexpensively for a few years. That is where trading Crawford hurts and if you block Bohm you eliminate one more possibility. Which is why you look to trade Bohm for an equivalent high level young player at a different position (maybe SS or CF). You could trade for a pitcher of course, but my guess is we are not looking for pitching prospects at this point if we want someone that can help in the next year or two.

[xogfog]

I'd rather sign Donaldson to a shorter deal.

[el-pietro]

If Rendon is an option I'd go all in for him. Hes a genuine MVP candidate and the story on him is he doesn't apparently want to play for ever. You could maybe get him on a 5-7 30m deal. Hes one of the best hitters in all of baseball.

[andyb]

All the rumors out there seem to be for 7-year contracts. More likely to be closer to $35 million a year than $30 million. Arenado is already at $32.5 million.

[zambonir]

Yes while I posted without comment, if Nightengale (and Heyman) are saying it it probably won't happen. But I'd love it to be true. Boras is out there calling out his old pals in DC for not being willing to do it so maybe his new pal is.

And who knows, maybe Gregorius has 3-4 year offers out there that are expensive enough that they figure they may as well buy top-shelf. But I'll believe it when I see it. Remember, we are the Yankees now, everyone will always associate us with every top $ guy, especially the agents.