2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[flyers19rw]

Andy, I have to go another way here. The club that gets the best player wins the trade. All hinges revolve around the Phillies having the money to make trades work that look uneven. Crawford will never be the player that Segura has been/is. (Check Crawford’s second half of ‘19 says) Segura has a bigger contract but the Phillies could afford it especially when they were shedding Santana’s.
The same pretty well goes with Alfaro and Realmuto. JT is special. Whatever has done for the Phillies as far as game calling, pitch framing and tossing base runners has been as good as any that I have seen as a Phan. He’s better than Boone, Daulton, Chooch or whoever. If it cost Alfaro and Sixto to get him, it was worth the price. When extended, JT will hold down a crucial position for five years. To get that you need to pay and Realmuto is worth the price. You can’t deny that a Phillies lineup on opening day with Segura and Realmuto is not better than one with Crawford and Alfaro.

[zambonir]

Definitely with Realmuto but he has to re-sign, and even then, we'll see what he's doing in 2022 2023 (if the Phillies don't win anything in 2021). Jury's still out on Segura vs. Crawford though you can't leave out Santana in that equation (which is ironic. But he seemed hard to move at the time). Right now Segura looks more like a bust to me - he's never going to deliver the offensive or defensive value he did in his peak years and if he's moved to 2B he's probably pretty ordinary and overpaid. Certainly there is a chance (and I hope) that Segura gets back to 2-3 WAR this year but there's also a chance he stays at 1.5 and Crawford matches or exceeds him for the next several years.

[bkeich]

Addison Russell? 12.1 WAR in 4 seasons before a replacement level season last year. Had a domestic violence incident.

One time mega prospect who hasn’t been terrible (he gets very high defensive marks, marginal offensive).

Was non-tendered today. This will be his age 26 season

[andyb]

You can’t deny that a Phillies lineup on opening day with Segura and Realmuto is not better than one with Crawford and Alfaro.

If it has Gerrit Cole starting, then the Crawford and Alfaro lineup is part of a better team.

Yes the best player in a deal matters. It is harder to get stars then average players. Everything adds up though and there is a cost to spending money and a cost to giving up prospects (Sixto Sanchez would likely be our number one prospect this year). Realmuto is a good player. He is not "special" though. He is one of the best 40-50 players in baseball at a position where he is not likely to be one of those best 40-50 players in 3 years when he costs $20 million plus a year.

[Squire]

Maikel Franco and Cesar Hernandez have both indeed been non-tendered. Knapp signed and all other eligibles tendered

[allentown]

Trading top prospects for MLB players at the expensive end of arb and then extending them, very quickly has you paying FA rates for the guys you extended, but without the low-cost/positive performance prospects you traded away to get the MLB guys. You still end up paying for the guys you traded for in their waning years, just as you would with a FA. So all you actual gain from the trade is the one or two remaining arb years.

We ne Bohm, Stott, and Howard both to remain with the Phillies and to be successful MLB players. That is the only way you balance your budget going forward, since FAs ang trade guys are very expensive.

[flyers19rw]

That’s a lot of hypotheticals. Last year Cole wasn’t here. Segura and Realmuto were. Team broke even at 81-81. I doubt if they did that with Crawford and Alfaro instead. I don’t see where adding Cole means that Segura and Realmuto are not here.
You and I will disagree on JT. I see him as special where you don’t. Extrapolating out to where he is three years from now is anyone’s guess. Physically, I see him as a freakishly durable athlete who will hold up well at the position. Is he worth 5X$20M or so? Time will tell. Even if he declines, he’ll still be better than Alfaro as a catcher/player. Show me a team that is a winner and usually there’s a competent catcher behind the plate. JT is that guy.

[zambonir]

I am pretty happy to have one of the 2 or 3 best catchers in baseball for a while, if that's the case. But they could have signed Grandal last year and probably won 81 games. I think Wilson Ramos and Alfaro also combined for 3.0 WAR.

I like the aggression that got us JT though. He was available, the price was acceptable, they knew it would also appeal to Harper, they pulled the trigger.

Pass on Addison Russell. May as well just keep Herrera. Or Franco (I realize Russell can play much better defense but that is just the vibe I get off him, and when you throw in the domestic violence, no thanks.)

Who's the longest-tenured Phillies player now, Neris?

[zambonir]

Good Phight writer thread:

Alex Carr on Twitter

He also thinks this is the year to go over the tax because they can get back under - and still sign a big FA - next year w/o Arrieta and Robertson (though I'm not sure he's factoring in JT yet).

[xogfog]

I think if you want a stopgap to cover 3B until Bohm is ready, I'd take a flier on Travis Shaw who the Brewers non-tendered today. He had a down year, but hit 30+ HRs in 2017 and 2018. Also can play 2B and 1B, and bats LH.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't not look at him, but his floor last year was lower than Franco's. Were there injuries?

Gelb has a detailed rundown of the options going forward. The most notable points: three sources say Segura would rather play 2B. It also repeats the fact that the Phillies still rate Kingery highly at SS.

The Phillies' offseason begins with an infield...

I think we're probably going to sign Gregorius. Kingery can play 3B but someone like Shaw (or Miller) could be in the mix too. Gelb seems to think fast-tracking Bohm is very much in the cards, as he mentions manipulating Bohm's service time, which doesn't even seem like a thing to me (i.e. there is no reason he should make the team out of spring training, even with a hot performance).

He also reiterates that Bohm's future is not at 3B and we could easily trade him if we sign Rendon or Donaldson but it doesn't feel to me like the cards are lining up for that.

[andyb]

I see him as special where you don’t. Extrapolating out to where he is three years from now is anyone’s guess. Physically, I see him as a freakishly durable athlete who will hold up well at the position. Is he worth 5X$20M or so? Time will tell. Even if he declines, he’ll still be better than Alfaro as a catcher/player.

This misses the point. It does not matter if he is better than Alfaro. 2 years of Realmuto for 5 of Alfaro and 6 of Sanchez is a high price. It is better if we re-sign him, but then that costs $100 million which could have been used for something else. And to predict a catcher will get better after age 27 is generally foolish. He has been a good 4-5 WAR player. That made him somewhere between the 22nd (on Fangraphs which values framing highly) and 55th (Baseball Reference WAR) best player in baseball this year. That is good. It is not special.

[zambonir]

I thought Realmuto was among the Top 10 in MLB in WAR at one point last season. Or was that just NL? The funny thing is framing was not one of his strengths before he joined the Phillies.

Still, I think you can only compare him to other catchers, and have to factor in how much offense he gives you from the catcher position when so many teams don't get that (and don't get defense from it to boot if they do).

[flyers19rw]

Realmuto had over four times the WAR that Alfaro had last year. Two years of that alone would out perform five seasons of Alfaro. No one can accurately predict what the future holds for a player. However there’s no reason to think that Realmuto will not seriously out perform Alfaro going forward. Keeping in mind that JT is only two years older than Alfaro, and is a fitness freak, it’s possible that the productive span of their careers will end close to the same time.
The money to be spent on Realmuto is the cost of doing business. Catching is probably the most important defensive position on the field. To obtain an AS at that place is worth the price. I don’t see that as a poor allocation of resources. As for Sixto, he’s an unknown.

[bigegypt0417]

Realmuto had over four times the WAR that Alfaro had last year. Two years of that alone would out perform five seasons of Alfaro. No one can accurately predict what the future holds for a player. However there’s no reason to think that Realmuto will not seriously out perform Alfaro going forward. Keeping in mind that JT is only two years older than Alfaro, and is a fitness freak, it’s possible that the productive span of their careers will end close to the same time.
The money to be spent on Realmuto is the cost of doing business. Catching is probably the most important defensive position on the field. To obtain an AS at that place is worth the price. I don’t see that as a poor allocation of resources. As for Sixto, he’s an unknown.

Andy has taken a fairly militant view on this trade from the start and it seems to be that he feels Alfaro is better than he's actually shown himself to be.

If i'm ever going to regret this trade it won't be because Alfaro...it will be if a certain pitcher we traded becomes an ace or something close to it.

[EDmuch]

Since we decided to let Cesar go, I an disappointed that we did not add a second baseman with 30 HR power like Moustakas. I take it that instead of going after Moose, we are going to move Segura to 2b and add Gregorius at SS. I just worry that this may be another example of Klentak outsmarting himself.

[andyb]

Andy has taken a fairly militant view on this trade from the start and it seems to be that he feels Alfaro is better than he's actually shown himself to be.

It has been a fact-based view. We traded for 2 years of a guy that is a 4-5 WAR player. We traded 5 years of a guy projected to be worth 1-2 WAR AND Sixto Sanchez who could easily be worth 10-20 WAR on his own.

FWIW there is probably a 30%-40% chance we "win" the Realmuto trade, not necessarily on total WAR but if we make the playoffs this year and Sanchez is a bust. There is maybe a 10% chance we "win" the Segura trade especially when you consider the value Santana bought. I want trades where we actually get more value than we give up.

People tend to love certain players more than they are actually worth. Hoskins gets that love too. I love Realmuto as a player. He is probably the best catcher in baseball now. He might be for a couple of more years, mainly because there are no Buster Poseys out there now. It is a pretty weak field of catchers so best is not a 6-8 WAR player as it has often been in the past. Realmuto is very good. We gave up a lot to get him and did not win in the first of the 2 years we traded for. Facts.

WAR Rankings:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders

And he is much better as I said on Fangraphs (22nd). That is very good. It is just not special.

[julio]

Since we decided to let Cesar go, I an disappointed that we did not add a second baseman with 30 HR power like Moustakas. I take it that instead of going after Moose, we are going to move Segura to 2b and add Gregorius at SS. I just worry that this may be another example of Klentak outsmarting himself.

You mean that you're disappointed that the Phils didn't sign Moustakas, specifically (as opposed to someone "like Moustakas")? It's a bit early in the off-season to assert that the Phils "didn't" do something in a more general sense.

Moustakas signed for 4 years / $64 million. You wanted the Phillies to outbid that? You assume that because they didn't sign him, they didn't "go after" him (e.g., didn't call his agent/didn't make any offer)?

I'm mystified as to how you get from Moustakas signing with Cincinnati to "Klentak outsmarting himself." Just felt the need to take (another) dig at Klentak, with or without any information?

[EDmuch]

No, I simply expressed my view that I am concerned about the assumption that Gregorius will be a productive enough addition. I guess that requires you to leap into your self-appointed role as enforcer of board ideology.

[saycheese]

I am not a huge fan of Gregorius, especially at the dollars that some are reporting he is looking for. I think they should look into the trade route for a 2nd baseman, use Kingery at SS and Segura at 3rd until Bohn is ready. I don't want to spend big money at SS and that takes us out of fixing the pitching staff. For some reason the 2nd base position is devalued in the marketplace. So paying Cesar 12 million never made sense.