2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

zambonir 2019-12-02 05:18:30 UTC #542

Rosenthal back at work after the holiday.

He says Hader is available, doesn't mention Phillies. Jackie Bradley Jr. a possible non-tender. Thinks Sox will have trouble finding anyone to offer them enough for Betts. Thinks Franco and Cesar are gone (mentions Gregorius rumor, and also notes the glut of 2B out there).

Austinfan 2019-12-02 06:04:04 UTC #543

Don't you usually have to make the playoffs after a 8 year absence before you start thinking of yourself as a WS contender?

andyb 2019-12-02 12:12:26 UTC #544

A wild card team just won the World Series. The Astros went from not making the playoffs to winning a World Series a few years ago We don't have the young talent in the minors that might make one want to wait. Our best players are in their prime.

Why can't the Phillies add 5-10 wins in the Winter, then get 5 wins healthier next year than they were last year? Why keep waiting? Until we are terrible again?

Austinfan 2019-12-02 13:57:38 UTC #545

Bust the cap to get to 85 wins and you may have to wait another decade.

allentown 2019-12-02 14:03:42 UTC #546

Miss making it this cycle and we definitely have to wait another decade. Nothing on the farm speaks to any 2021-2028 year looking more promising than 2020. I would not trade young talent for vets to make it next season, but would certainly take a shot with FA.

andyb 2019-12-02 16:22:15 UTC #547

We just won 81 games while experiencing injuries that were above average. They have an 85-win quality team now. So your basic position is that they should not try to improve at all? And just rely on a farm system rated as below average?

The reason they probably need to exceed the cap is that their young players are not good enough. None of that means they should stop paying attention to the farm. That also does not mean they should not try to get better and improve on a team that has guys like Harper and Realmuto and Hoskins and Nola in their prime.

bigegypt0417 2019-12-02 16:26:20 UTC #548

this is 100% correct.

AF constantly wants to wait on mediocre Minor league talent to bail us out while spending no money.

It would not take much to make this a 90 win team especially if we can stay healthier next season.

Also...Boras and Girardi would not be here if they thought we'd all of the suddent decide to stop spending cash.

David_Criss 2019-12-02 16:38:06 UTC #549

Todd Zolecki
@ToddZolecki
Source says #Phillies avoided arbitration with Andrew Knapp, agreeing on a one-year, $710,000 contract.

Austinfan 2019-12-02 16:55:10 UTC #550

It's not about not spending, it's about spending wisely - or do you want to build "Angels East?."

Phillies actually have some minor league talent, Bohm within a year, Stott probably 2-3 years, Howard sometime next year, Seabold showed back of rotation stuff in the AFL, DLS et al can provide bullpen depth. And this system has a history of players coming out of nowhere, especially in the pen.

The key will be better coaching, both hitting and pitching, too many hitters had subpar seasons, young pitchers took steps backward. Just get Hoskins back to his "norm," have Kingery and Haseley build on their early success, etc., get Segura closer to his career norm and so on.

Then you make strategic purchases, but don't think you can buy your way into contention - as we've seen, FAs are a total crap shoot, one may add 3-4 WAR but the next may go belly up. So you really need to build a 90 win team that's sustainable, then add the one or two players that can put you over the top. Which is why I keep saying, either 1-2 year patches or core players in FA (Harper), but not big money to 30+ year olds who are likely to el foldo on you.

andyb 2019-12-02 17:07:07 UTC #551

Austinfan:

It's not about not spending, it's about spending wisely - or do you want to build "Angels East?."

Phillies actually have some minor league talent, Bohm within a year, Stott probably 2-3 years, Howard sometime next year, Seabold showed back of rotation stuff in the AFL, DLS et al can provide bullpen depth. And this system has a history of players coming out of nowhere, especially in the pen.

The key will be better coaching, both hitting and pitching, too many hitters had subpar seasons, young pitchers took steps backward. Just get Hoskins back to his "norm," have Kingery and Haseley build on their early success, etc., get Segura closer to his career norm and so on.

Then you make strategic purchases, but don't think you can buy your way into contention - as we've seen, FAs are a total crap shoot, one may add 3-4 WAR but the next may go belly up. So you really need to build a 90 win team that's sustainable, then add the one or two players that can put you over the top. Which is why I keep saying, either 1-2 year patches or core players in FA (Harper), but not big money to 30+ year olds who are likely to el foldo on you.

Nobody is arguing to spend un-wisely.

You are probably the only person that thinks the farm system is good. We have 2-3 top 100 prospects. There are 30 teams so 3.3 should be the average. There is no reason to think that Stott is especially great. Just about every team had a number one pick last year and Stott seems to be doing about average.

Coaching is not the answer either. That is just an excuse. We changed managers more because we did not win, not because they were bad at their jobs.

When does this team compete using your strategy? Should we wait till Harper and Realmuto are in their 30s and Howard has had his Tommy John surgery?

allentown 2019-12-02 18:36:36 UTC #552

And we have no top 10, 20, 30, and by at least many rankings, no top 50 ranked prospects.

zambonir 2019-12-02 19:24:13 UTC #553

We're certainly not the Astros, who actually won their division and lost a five game DS before missing the playoffs the next season and then making the World Series. But the fact that we're not the Astros is also why we have to buy talent. Fundamentally, this team is in Year 2 of trying to make the playoffs and had an 86-90 win team last year if healthy. They're going to try to add 5-6 WAR via free agency or trade - as CD would say, they just are.

The argument has become tedious inasmuch as, there's not actually any doubt or debate about what the Phillies will do, nor should there be. They've added top free agents and given up draft picks each of the last two seasons. They traded away two young major league players and one top prospect last season. The die is cast. If they prefer Wheeler to Gerrit Cole to save a little money, fine, but there's really no reason to worry about the 6th or 7th year of an elite pitcher's contract at this point. This team isn't just trying to win before Cutch, Segura and possibly Realmuto leave, or before Harper turns 30 and an extended Realmuto begins declining; they have to win before Nola's deal is up and Hoskins isn't worth keeping.

My argument about Betts and the luxury tax is that it's actually a less costly path - lower trade cost, no long-term commitment - than some of the alternatives. If they are deliberately waiting on Realmuto's extension to keep his AAV lower this year that should be to help make other moves, not specificially to stay under the tax.

This only applies if they can actually get the high-end talent. But Cole or someone like Betts (or Rendon) is worth it.

Also the top free agents aren't apples-to-apples even if they are comparable players. Rendon is 29 and Donaldson is 34 so if you were seriously considering the latter on a 2-3 year deal may as well get the former for five-seven. Same goes for a 29 year-old pitcher vs. a 31 year-old pitcher.

andyb 2019-12-02 20:02:53 UTC #554

Those Astros teams were 86 and 84 win teams. We are not that far from where those teams were. Biggest difference is fewer prospects so we need to spend money to compensate. We are lucky we can.

Philsmania 2019-12-02 20:13:56 UTC #555

Yeah, it does kind of stink that the best we can hope for is to try to prop the window of opportunity open for a year or two.

andyb 2019-12-02 20:18:21 UTC #556

Phillies use the last 40-man spot to claim Trevor Kelley:

Red Sox. High 80s sinkerballer. Was good in AAA but bad in the majors last year. He probably won't last the winter on the 40-man (or December), but the Phillies would likely love to see if they could get him through waivers to AAA at some point after the winter meetings when everybody has a full roster.

zambonir 2019-12-02 20:23:37 UTC #557

Agreed (and they didn't even win the division, crazy. They led by 3 games on September 1 and finished 2 out).

I don't think the future is lost, but there's no waiting for it. We will still have the money to fill holes as they open or prospects don't pan out. Next year Arrieta and Robertson come off the books. Cutch the year after that. Eventually Segura and maybe Hoskins (and Herrera's small hit will be gone after 2021).

If we could really field a 2022 team with Bohm, Haseley, Stott and Moniak on the 25-man and two homegrown starters that'd be great, but likely one or more of them won't make it, or won't be here.

You can certainly make the case that the Phillies should have stayed in full rebuild/tank mode for the last two seasons - that what they were trying to grow didn't actually grow and they had no chance to compete with the top teams and could have really used those draft picks (and higher position). But that's not what happened. And the Nats disproved that both years - we could have won the division last year with them hitting a bump and a wild card team could beat LA and win it all.

andyb 2019-12-02 20:31:37 UTC #558

In terms of general strategy I want them to do as much as they can to maximize the current window which is probably defined as the next 2 or 3 years WITHOUT impacting their reserve of top prospects.

Ideally that means they bet on Bohm, Stott, and Howard to be good. If they trade any of them they really need to think about bringing back other prospects in some deals. Any trades of top prospects also need to come with multiple years of control (not just 1 or even 2). I am comfortable with a short term luxury tax hit especially if it is built on getting a top player like Cole or Strasburg. Trading top prospects for 1 year of Betts should be a non starter though. Maybe in July I would do it if it was clearly the last piece (and potentially if a couple of other top prospects like Rojas or Morales developed by then).

We made our bed to some degree last offseason with the Harper, Segura, and Realmuto moves. They were 2-4 year plays on being really good. We can't change course now when we are not too far away from competing. 92 win teams compete all the time. They can be that even if they are probably not going to be a 100-win team without improvement from some place we can't predict now.

fish 2019-12-02 21:15:36 UTC #559

The other problem with trying to outspend your problems is that they need to keep young guys for cost control. Especially pitchers- you need all the talent you can possibly accrue to try to survive attrition.

andyb 2019-12-02 21:22:40 UTC #560

That is exactly my point in not wanting to diminish the prospect base. The goal should always to have a significant portion of the roster filled by inexpensive players in their prime who are also good (so not just talking bench and bullpen).

I was not wild about either of the trades last year because of that. Segura for 4 years was the right length of control, but also cost us a prospect who could be better than Segura as soon as this year. And getting Realmuto for 2 years at the cost of Alfaro for 5 years and Sanchez for 6/7 is also expensive. Realmuto is better than Alfaro. But maybe Cole and Alfaro are better than Realmuto and Eflin (or any other low cost pitcher needed because we'll shortly be spending $20+ million on Realmuto).

Money matters, but also getting players in their prime matters. If we decide to trade Bohm, we ideally have a prospect coming back in that deal or another deal who might be as good as Bohm.

zambonir 2019-12-02 23:05:48 UTC #561

It's unfortunate we are (presumably) about to lose Franco, Hernandez and (also presumably, eventually) Williams and Herrera for nothing, or next to it. Would have at least liked a few lottery tickets.

I think they only trade Bohm if they sign Rendon or Donaldson (and I don't really see that, especially not Donaldson). I would not want to include Haseley in a Betts deal but might for a longer-controlled CF (but he could also be our LF, at least in a platoon, as soon as next year).

Not hard to lament missing on Moose at that price, I wonder if the Phillies were already focused on Didi because they knew what the 3B guys were going to cost (never mind that he's going to play 2B) or if this puts more market pressure on them that they didn't expect.