2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

flyers19rw 2019-11-27 21:19:36 UTC #522

I'm probably the outlier here but I'm not sold on Kingery. He's been gifted a lot of PT over the last two seasons but the necessary consistency at the plate hasn't shown up yet. Good six weeks followed by a similar period of weak hitting. Maybe he'll put it together this season. Hopefully but its a maybe none the less.

schillingfan 2019-11-27 21:29:42 UTC #523

It’s clear we need to improve at at least one infield position as Franco is gone. The only way getting rid of Hernandez makes sense is if you have Kingery playing one of the IF spots full-time or believing Bohm is ready. If Bohm is ready then your new player and Segura play SS and 2B. Kingery then plays center. If you don’t believe Bohm is ready then you have to believe Haseley can play CF or Herrera is redeemable. Or put more simply you can only get Hernandez if you believe Bohm or Haseley are starters or you can find a cheaper replacement for Hernandez who will give you two WAR. A final alternative would be a more expensive, but better replacement and skimp on pitching.

tom81 2019-11-27 21:41:37 UTC #524

I think the disdain people is only a small part him being from Latin American and primarily him not being “Chase Utley.” It is very hard to follow a legend, especially one who was probably the most fan loved player of my lifetime. I think it a no brainer keeping Cesar at 2B unless you get fair value for him in a trade, which I consider very unlikely. You are only on the hook for one more year and he is likely a bargain if you consider $8 million per WAR fair value.

zambonir 2019-11-27 23:19:29 UTC #525

I think this puts Cesar in perspective: Orioles can't find anyone to trade for Jonathan Villar, coming off a career year as a 4.0 WAR, 109 OPS+ player projected to make $10.4 million this year.

Gregorious instead of Cesar/Franco would be an even swap, $-wise.

IMO Franco won't be on the Phillies after Monday so at least we can stop talking about that option then. Will Cesar? This isn't just about the players, this is about the continued downward valuation of older players by front offices, in a system that still rewards age over performance. Anyone will be happy to have Villar or Cesar if they are non-tendered (or in Villar's case, clears waivers). Segura is lucky he got his deal when he did.

DurhamBull 2019-11-28 14:38:23 UTC #526

Does he stay or does he go? This one is really hard to call.

zambonir 2019-11-28 17:00:03 UTC #527

I don't think it's that hard, I think he's gone but I suppose in theory they could tender him. Could still be traded or even cut in spring training with little financial cost, or maybe they're happy to pick up half his salary to work a trade. Don't think there's much chance he plays a game for the Phillies this year or even gets to Clearwater, but (as with last year) they may be reluctant to create the hole before they're sure they can actually fill it (which they couldn't last year). But he was also basically untradeable last year too.

I figure Cesar yes, Maikel no, but certainly not both. Cesar costs more but is more useful (and better). And you're already paying Herrera too.

DurhamBull 2019-11-29 12:40:53 UTC #528

@zambonir, that's how I feel too about the Phils' options. I think "may be reluctant to create the hole before they're sure they can actually fill it" is key.

jimbomill 2019-11-29 17:18:15 UTC #529

Yep!
Don't want to give a potential replacement anymore leverage than necessary. There's a difference between knowing Franco is on the roster still, but going to be gone, and Franco's actually already gone. That difference will be exploited by any agent worth his salt.

zambonir 2019-11-29 18:09:35 UTC #530

But Franco doesn't give you any leverage over Boras (Moustakas/Rendon) or Donaldson's agent. "We don't really need to overpay for your 3-7 WAR client, we've got a negative WAR guy right here already and he's gonna help us get to the World Series!"

Even just saying Kingery is your 3B is more leverage, though in theory you need to keep Cesar to claim that.

Conventional wisdom seems to be that they won't tender either of them. To me there are a lot of reasons to keep Cesar but the 2B market is also not that tough to crack (which is also why they've never been able to trade him). We may underrate Cesar and we may like Cesar but if they really got desperate for 2B (meaning they don't move Segura and don't play Kingery there) there are 5 or 6 guys, at least, that they could have for half the money.

The only x-factor to me would be if they want to, and think they can trade Segura. Even if that takes more time, they could pay Cesar knowing that other money is coming off the books.

The things they need to spend the money on (i.e. pitching) are more important than insurance.

Taudawg 2019-11-29 20:11:06 UTC #531

How often are players tendered and then released in spring training? I cannot recall too many. I would think if the Phillies were hoping to move on from Ceasr and Franco, they will do so now. In the case of Franco, I expect a non-tender. There are more options besides Donaldson and Moose that could provide equal production for about the same cost and maybe more for less - Frazier or Gyorko on one year deals perhaps. Maybe they tender Cesar, knowing they can play Kingery at 3B if needed. Perhaps Josh Harrison was brought in to be insurance in case the Phillies non-tender both and yet miss out on both a 2b and 3b in free agency.

zambonir 2019-11-29 20:29:31 UTC #532

Yeah it seems to be one of those unwritten rules, and also, kind of a waste of time (including the for the team) to negotiate a contract (or actually go to arbitration) if you don't really want the guy.

I think Harrison is like, a back-up plan to a back-up plan (and more likely to be competing for a bench spot) but if he's healthy he could put up 1 WAR, which is still better than Franco. So was Brad MIller.

The big question is how much will Klentak (and Girardi) value positional flexibility. If you think Kingery should just play 2B that simplifies everything. But I don't think that's where the Phillies are. I also don't think they can carry Herrera, Franco and Hernadez on the 40 for very long, even if there are other expendables.

gmwannabe 2019-11-30 14:37:19 UTC #533

was looking on the phillies site to see about the scout that passed away. his signings and any other items. phils have nothing on their site. no tribute, no mention of losing a member of their family. did i miss something? oh, but they did sign Josh Harrison.
gm

zambonir 2019-11-30 20:14:53 UTC #534

Slow news day in NY. I can't imagine they'd really non-tender Knapp when he has options/utility but would they carry four catchers on the 40, or is Grullon just not viewed as a factor (or trade bait)?

andyb 2019-11-30 21:55:35 UTC #535

I am guessing every writer is just suggesting names that Girardi knows from the Yankees. The Red Sox silly season rumors are still floating around as well:

The Red Sox rumor is based on the incorrect premise that the Phillies don't care at all about money and really only care about the next year. There is just not much logic that we would give up premier talent for one year of Betts. I am guessing the asking price would include 2 of our top 3 prospects and even if we signed Betts for $300-$400 million it would still likely be a bad deal (when you can add a free agent like Cole and do the same thing for a second round pick).

From all public comments Klentak has learned from his mistakes regarding Santana and Segura. He is just not going to want to trade much talent for short term commitments and the assumption we have unlimited money is just not true. I think there is a good chance we exceed the luxury tax, but likely would do so with an aim to get under the next year without the Arrieta contract.

zambonir 2019-11-30 22:11:48 UTC #536

"According to a person with knowledge of the situation the Phillies have interest..." is both irrefutable and meaningless. No doubt they are inquiring about all three players but who knows how seriously.

I'm certainly interested in Betts but at a normal trade deadline rental price (when it's rare to give up one of your very top prospects). That you'd have him an entire season has value too of course, but it's mitigated by the high $. Giglio suggests they'd get him for less if they took back Eovaldi, or simply because no other team wants to take on Betts' salary any more than the Red Sox do.

fish 2019-12-01 05:19:05 UTC #537

Makes me wonder if there used to be an internal PR person that was recently fired or moved...someone who was there to make such a recognition of human decency- who likely would have also been the one to help prevent the Gabe Kapler firing press conference (the Girardi hiring presser really felt like they made sure to consult with a PR person...maybe they outsourced that)

zambonir 2019-12-01 05:43:12 UTC #538

More likely it was just Thanksgiving week, and the news of his death didn't trickle out before the holiday slowdown. it will probably turn up on the website and email newsletter this week.

David_Criss 2019-12-01 14:18:49 UTC #539

Regarding Betts. The Red Sox have Betts and can, if they choose, can use his last year of control to:
A. Shed the Price and Evoldi contracts and have a ton of money to spend in 2021
B. Get a major hauling prospects
C. See what they can get now or again at the deadline

I expect there to be a lot of crazy Betts rumors to fly and dominate the winter. What do the Red Sox want more to save a ton of cash or to stockpile prospects.

FWIW no way do Isee the Phillies investing $80 million in an outfield in 2020 or 21 (Cutch, Betts, Harper) so lets not get to carried away, or should we?

fish 2019-12-01 17:47:42 UTC #540

The Phils lost their bullpen catcher/catching coach Craig Driver to the Cubs. That’s a shame- he seems like the one coach (aside from Bobby Dickerson) who actually saw the performance he was in charge of improve, though having JT Realmuto helps a lot.

In this era of expanded coaching and development it seems you need just as strong of a pipeline of coaches in the system as you do players.

zambonir 2019-12-01 18:54:27 UTC #541

I think it's a long shot because you have to give something up and you only get him for one year but I don't see any real reason to be scared off by Betts salary. I'd rather have a 27 year-old $28 million centerfielder than a 34 year-old $20 million 3B (Donaldson) on a multi-year deal or a $15 million SS question mark (Gregorius).

It's also possible the trade price for Starling Marte would be higher merely because he costs less money and is controlled for longer (but he's also 31).

Also still a good chance the Phillies are shedding $15 million tomorrow.

Really, with the state of the farm system and the approach the Phillies have taken over the past two years, there's no excuse not to spend big $ on both a bat and an arm and bust the luxury tax if the right option presents itself, if you really think you're a World Series contender (and if you don't think that, then the Segura/McCutchen/Arrieta era is already over, and you got little value out of the Realmuto trade, other than the inside track to extend him). And if it's for Betts you can get right back under next year with both him and Arrieta gone.