2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[andyb]

Though his offensive value seems gone these days. Since he can't play SS I am not sure he fits as the infield utility guy that well. At least he is competition for 3B in Spring Training. Good clubhouse guy by reputation.

[zambonir]

I was looking at his stats just the other day. Honestly if they decide to commit their $ elsewhere and feel good about Bohm coming up in July, they could do worse. A Miller/Harrison platoon probably exceeds Franco's overall value if Harrison's not completely cooked (which is a matter of his health, mostly). There are so many other variables (Cesar, Segura, who they might actually sign) but the Phillies' need Franco's $.

[nycphils]

Z, I’m with you- I think there are lots of other options for a platoon that make more sense than spending $12m on Cesar, who has never been a particularly great fielder either so defense isn’t a huge consideration either. Brad Miller - who only cost $1m - and Harrison or even Wilmer Flores (.982 OPS vs LHB for AZ in 2019) at 2nd or even 3B would make more sense (Kingery at 2B and those platoons at 3B could make the best defense, not sure).

[zambonir]

Interesting aside here: the Phillies may rate Kingery ahead of Segura at SS.

Scott Kingery gives Phillies multiple roster-building options. But what’s his...

[bkeich]

I really dont get the disdain people have for Cesar Hernandez. He is not a great player, nor and all star, but he is a solid 2 WAR 2B. He has more than 11 WAR over the last 5 seasons, and despite some of his stats going up and down, overall he is pretty steady. The idea that we could put out a platoon of Miller/Harrison (and therefore use 2 roster spots) to try and get almost as much production for a little less money just seems foolish to me. This is a team desperately in need of quality performances, the idea of putting out a lesser set of players and hope they can almost give the same value seems to be going in the wrong direction.

Kingery is equally odd in his "reputation" on this site with some comments. I am excited about the guy too, but lets not get out of hand, he hasnt really proven that he is a ML player yet. He has reasonably good stats last year after being on the worst players in the game in 2017. He had 2 good, 2 average and 2 bad months last year. His final stats are a little bit over influenced by his strong start, which was great. He still has alot to prove that he is more than just a utility player.

I can't think of any reason to get rid of Hernandez, 2 WAR for $12M is not that bad of a deal and frankly if we just dump him we dont have anyone that even comes close to adding the value (Miller/Harrison I assume is a joke). Miller is certainly a guy worth keeping, at least for now, but if he is a starting ANYTHING at the start of the season we have a poor lineup. He isnt a good player, just a versatile one that can fill in for a short period. There is a reason we got him for free (Career -1.6 WAR, last seasons 0.7 WAR was a career high, such as it is). Harrison just signed a minor league deal because frankly, at this point, he is probably a minor league player. He isnt someone we should be looking for a way to get starts unless he proves that his rapid decline is somehow wrong.

[el-pietro]

I agree that Hernandez seems undervalued. On the other hand if you field a team of 2 win players then that is how you end up with a 80 win team. If you can field someone with 4 or so win upside in place of Cesar then I'm all for moving on from him.

Its also very easy to find a 2 win second baseman. If you can save 5 or 6 M in the process then that seems like a smart move.

[Philsmania]

I really dont get the disdain people have for Cesar Hernandez.

Not so much on this board but I think many Phillies phans have an issue with him being from South of the border. Something about Latino players is triggering for many Phillies phans.

[David_Criss]

You seriously think this is about race? Ceaser has played nearly everyday for a number of years and has been a steady second baseman. I think it is more about the fact is that he isn't getting any better and is getting pretty expensive for the same production when they can get pretty equal production from Kingery or another player who is already signed in Segura.

[julio]

Given the current roster, Cesar is the 2B - because it's really the only position he can handle, and they don't have a more productive bat to push him out of the lineup.

But... the premise of our discussion has been "How do we make the lineup better, by adding... somebody?" If we add a better hitter to the lineup - whether at 3B or in CF - then somebody who is currently basically a starter (Kingery, Haseley, Hernandez) loses plate appearances. So we discuss how we would deal with such a change (e.g., signing Moustakis or Gregorius).

I don't think it's "disdain" for Cesar Hernandez to prefer that Kingery or Haseley not lose plate appearances - given that Cesar is showing signs of decline, given that he will be relatively costly, and given that he'll be a free agent in one year. It's not clear to me that, of the three, Cesar may be the least productive offensively in 2020 - and he'll almost certainly be gone after 2020. I might rather see those plate appearances devoted to developing better hitters for years after 2020 (if there's little to no offensive penalty in 2020 from doing so).

Cesar has been a contributor. But as phans, we have to be able to move on from players - from ALL players - when it's time to do so. Sometimes, it's difficult, because we become attached to certain (iconic) players (and for some reason, sometimes to replacement-level mediocrities like Chris Coste or Sal Fasano?).

I really don't think this one is about his race (although I certainly agree with Philsmania that there are many examples of Philly fans inexplicably souring on certain Latino players - Bobby Abreu?). For me, it's partially about age - does that make me an "ageist"? In the context of expected performance of MLB players, I suppose it does! (Age matters; reflexes decline; this is real.) For me at least, the combination of impending free agency and declining performance metrics (Cesar's OBP, which has been the valuable part of his offense), which are likely related to his age (he's declining at a rate, and an age, that are consistent with large samples of MLB player careers), indicate that, if we add another bat that pushes somebody out of their current role, Hernandez is the likely candidate to be moved.

[phillychuck]

Honestly, OBP is one offensive stat that declines very slowly as players age--power and speed and AVG decline more quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if Cesar had a little bit of a bounce back year in 2020 no matter where he plays.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I really don't see it as disdain for Cesar. I have liked his play, enjoyed watching his development and am glad he has turned out the way he has.

But, his is a position where we have a lower priced replacement that we have drafted and I feel he is ready to take over at 2nd. I am not for using Kingery as a super sub all over the place. I think we can get better production if we put him at one position and let him focus on that.

[fish]

Cesar has always been a guy who's just kind of 'there', he doesn't really get noticed until you go through his end of year stats or he commits a bone-headed base running play. He's not someone that endears himself to fans, and at this point he is what he is.Great to have around if you have a hole, but it's easy to find better options at a better price.

[BostonRoss]

If the Phillies do what I want and somehow acquire a primo offensive player, then, as Julio says, a 2019 regular has to lose playing time with the Phillies. I think that's essential as the offense as currently structured is just average, and the pitching isn't good enough to overcome that.

It seems more likely to me that the offensive star would be an infielder than an outfielder. If so, then Kingery is probably the best option for CF though if Haseley or Herrera were to force the issue, great. I would be fine keeping Hernandez under such a scenario, unless the new star can only play 2B. If we had to trade one of the regulars (say Segura) to get our offensive star, then keeping Hernandez seems even more likely.

I am not counting on Bohm to contribute much in 2020.

[allentown]

Focus upon pitching. Line-up changes second. As far as Cesar goes, we do have to plan on an injury in-season to someone. Unless Bohm is tearing up AAA, I think he gets to be the injury-reserve guy. Since Kingery can play just about anywhere except catcher, Bohm can be the backup lineup guy for an injury anywhere except catcher. Kingery starts as the 3B and moves to whichever IF./OF position needs an injury replacement. IF starts the season with Kingery/Segura/Hernandez on the left side. If they'd rather put Segura at 3B and Kingery as SS, that also works. Forget Gregorius -- a distraction and a trap. FAs only, please.

[BostonRoss]

I agree we need to focus on pitching, but I don’t think the Phillies can seriously contend without improving the offense as well. I know that some people don’t think we’re contending in 2020 anyway, and if the Phillies believe that, then there’s no reason for an immediate offensive upgrade. But I think they can contend next year if they are aggressive enough in improving both pitching and offense.

[zambonir]

My post was that Miller/Harrison > Franco, I didn't mention Cesar (except as another variable in the mix, both position-wise and $-wise) and I certainly wouldn't want them to actually be our 3B or a 2B.

But I don't think Cesar is underrated. He's competent, he gives you a little WAR, but his offense (OPS+) has dropped off sharply over the last two seasons, including his signature skill, while his defense is nothing special. He was underrated in 2017.

I may still prefer to keep Cesar over Segura, who makes even more money and put up less WAR (and equally meh OPS+). But Segura is signed for a lot longer, probably somewhat better defensively (if they move him to 2B) and may or may not have a higher probability of hitting better again. He may also be more tradeable though.

I just don't think we're gong to see both of them in the middle of the IF this year.

And I'm not saying I really want to see Harrison and Miller at 3B (and you're right, there's probably only one roster spot between them, and Miller, if they bring him back, will be on a major league deal). I would still prefer Moustakas, and otherwise Kingery will likely be in the mix.

Reading the tea leaves though, I could see it either being Kingery at SS and Segura at 2B or Gregorius at SS and Segura at 2B. What I think none of us want is Kingery at 3B, Segura at SS and Cesar at 2B, unless we're trading for a high-end CF. Moustakas at 3B, Segura at SS Cesar at 2B and Kingery in CF the other possibility. I like that better than Kingery at 2B and being totally reliant on Haseley and Quinn in CF.

[zambonir]

Forget Gregorius -- a distraction and a trap. FAs only, please.

He's a free agent. I think they are interested in him because he's a candidate for a highish one-year deal to re-establish his value, whereas Moose is going to finally cash in. (And Gregorius can probably play any of the three positions too.).

(and I guess I was wrong about 'none of us' wanting a Kingery/Segura/Cesar infield! )

[DurhamBull]

It's worth remembering that Segura's 2019 offense was way below his 2016, 2017, and 2018 campaigns. It's reasonable IMO to believe that last year was just an off year for him. Will he bounce back in 2020? I wouldn't be surprised, especially if environmental factors (coaches, team attitudes, etc.) suit him better.

Jean Segura Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

[allentown]

OK, if he's a FA, fine and then Hernandez would have to go to save $ or we couldn't afford the pitching we need. Gregorious would cost significantly more than Hernandez, so we would still be very tight on $ to improve the pitching. Really, I have no problem with Kingery/Segura/Hernandez/Hoskins as the IF. Some bounceback is needed, but the OF needs a lot of bounceback or at least return to health. Perhaps the OF and absolutely both the SP and relief pitching are weaker.

[xogfog]

I like Hernandez, but I really want Kingery to play 2B and go get a placeholder at 3rd for Bohm, or even keep Franco for 1 more year. I'd sign Gregorious if Segura is traded. Hernadez doesn't really play anywhere but 2B, so you almost have to move him as he would have no value as a bench player, he has little value, but I would be fine trading him for long shot prospects just to move his salary.