2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[tom81]

Maybe they make a run at that Cesar Hernandez free agent

Since he had an off year maybe he signs a 1 year $8-$10 million deal to try to rebuild his value before he signs a long term deal.

[andyb]

I was kind of thinking that too. There is a bit of a glut of middle infielders out there. If that drives the Grigorious price down then great. But if Didi costs 3/45 and Cesar would give us one more year for less than his arbitration projection - then why not? One really has to think that money was the issue with Cesar. He was just replaceable at a cost of $11 million. For $8 million we might not be able to do much better.

[bigegypt0417]

Why would signing Gregarious take us out of the running for pitching?

The phillies would have plenty of room before hitting the penalties that actually matter. I think stabilizing the infield is as important as getting a quality starter or two.

[Austinfan]

We need a stopgap in the IF while Bohm and Stott develop.
I'd rather have Gregarious on a 1 year "show me" deal than Moustakas on a 4 year deal.
You can probably get 1-2 WAR on a cheap platoon, so if you're gonna pay, it's got to be a 3-4 WAR player.

[Lawman]

I'm looking at the Atlanta and Washington starting players - assuming no Rendon or Donaldson.

I'm not sure a starting of

Realmuto
Hoskins
Segura
Kingery
Gregorius
McCutchen
Haseley
Harper

is enough to get catapult this team to the playoffs. Am I wrong?

[allentown]

It's a strange line-up that would be banking on a lot of comeback seasons to be truly effective. Offensively, it is a big bet that Gregorius is the answer. He had a very good offensive year in 2018, not so much in 2019. He also played little more than half a season in 2019. Injury, yes but he is 29 and it's 2018, nor 2019, which is the career outlier, based upon both his minor and major league career stats. He had only a .728 career OPS last season, just about dead on his career average. Even worse, his OBP is only .281, and his major league career OBP is only .314. He is not an offensive powerhouse. Replacing Hernandez with Gregorius is an offensive negative. Gregorius for Franco, offensively, is close to a wash. Adding Gregorius would be a bid to upgrade the IF defense and, possibly through another move, to permit the addition of a better offensive 3B, in which case Kingery spends a lot of time in the OF.

It's possible that's a good offensive line-up. It's reasonable to assume that Haseley continues to improve, Harper is better, Segura has a bounceback season, McCutcheon is healthy and performs as he did at the start of last season, Hoskins bounces back, and Gregorius does what he did in his flukish 2018. It's possible, but that's a lot of ifs.

[Lawman]

Agreed 100%. And yet, as I sit here on December 3, I'm willing to bet that my projected line-up is fairly accurate.

[andyb]

That is probably true. I suppose it is possible we have a trade to shake up a position or two, but it is pretty clear we are going to add an infielder and that is probably the only big offensive addition. Much of the bench might be new, but that won't figure in the starting lineup. Beyond Grigorius the biggest question is Haseley and the franchise could very well choose to go with mediocre offense there to spend money on the bigger need of starting pitching.

A different question is SHOULD they flip a core offensive player for an upgrade. Segura probably does not have much trade value and they want to re-sign Realmuto. So the trade/upgrade candidates are probably Kingery and Hoskins. Kingery has the most trade value because of his contract. Hoskins has a depressed value off of last season (where in hindsight the right move would have been to trade Hoskins and keep Santana).

So would they consider trading Kingery because he is the one starter they have that could bring a significant return? Trade Kingery for a lower cost, controllable starter and then bring Cesar back? I doubt they do this, but it is probably the most interesting option available to them.

[zambonir]

To me it's all about Bohm. Just adding Gregorius isn't enough. You have to also add either a 3B or an OF (even if that OF's value is mostly defensive). Unless you consider Bohm your other add (and you can always upgrade the OF in July if Haseley/Kingery isn't enough).

I think a surprise trade probably will happen, whether it's of a current starter or not. Could be for pitching, could be for a position player (including someone like Merrifield. Clearly part of their interest in Gregorius is that he's another multi-tool).

When's the last time a non-tendered player re-signed with the team that didn't offer him? I think Segura is our 2B now, unless he himself is traded.

I'm okay with not giving Moustakas four years but I'm a little concerned the market for the Phillies' remaining options (Rendon, Donaldson, Gregorius) is higher than they expected. Giving Gregorious three years isn't the end of the world but you're definitely putting a lot of hope on best-case scenarios at every IF spot. Hope Kingery and Bohm cover 3B, hope Gregorius comes back from his down season, hope Segura ticks back up, hope Hoskins gets fixed.

Financially Gregorius should be a wash with the two guys we just non-tendered so I think they still have to be in the market for a 3B or OF.

[andyb]

There sure is a glut of mediocre 2B types out there if we want to take a $2-$3 million flyer on some of the second tier candidates as insurance (maybe instead of Miller).

Five Lessons From the Wild Non-Tender Deadline

"Hernandez jumps to the top of available second baseman along with free agent Brian Dozier, but Asdrubal Cabrera, Howie Kendrick, and Eric Sogard are all coming off seasons as good or better than the former Phillies second baseman while Jason Kipnis, Starlin Castro, Wilmer Flores, and last year’s non-tender Jonathan Schoop not all that far behind.

In addition to those players, middle infielders José Peraza, who put up 2.6 WAR in 2018, Tim Beckham, who was good in 2017 and put up an average hitting line last year, and Addison Russell, who was good enough that the Cubs were willing to overlook his domestic violence suspension and even gave him a contract to make up for money lost during that suspension, were all non-tendered as well."

[nycphils]

A Brad Miller/Wilmer Flores platoon at 2nd base would be smart - probably would cost only $4-6m in the aggregate, each can play other positions and would probably result in an .825+ OPS out of the position with good power. With a 26 man roster and Kingery and Quinn available for late inning defense if needed, that would almost certainly outperform Hernandez and would have been #6 in OPS among qualifying 2nd basemen last year, just under Moustakas for $10+m less per year.

[zambonir]

Yup. From that Rosenthal column you posted elsewhere:

Clubs are using the system to their advantage, knowing that by flooding the market they can get better deals than they would in arbitration. Top free agents effectively are on islands, no longer dragging the rest of the salaries upward.

It would not surprise me if the Phillies made their Cesar decision based entirely on valuation and data, including age curve (even if guys like Kendrick and Asdrubel are defying it) and the fact that he's a diminishing asset they were going to lose for nothing soon anyway. Add in that he can't play any other position and it was easy.

If they believe in Bohm, a modestly priced 3B/2B who winds up as a good bench piece makes sense. The CF market seems a lot tougher to crack.

I don't think you do this to fill 2B per se though. Ideally you sign Gregorius, move Segura to either 2B or 3B (or both) and pick up another guy to share the 3B load, freeing Kingery to also play CF. Even with the 26th man you can't really sign two platoon IFs (unless you don't get Gregorius or trade Segura). Or you can't keep Quinn.

[andyb]

Asdrubel for 3rd base is actually not the worst hedge since they know him a bit. Keep him away from the middle infield and as a switch hitter with flexibility he'd be a good bench player if Bohm gets promoted by midseason. 783 OPS last year on a $3.5 million contract. Can't imagine he'll get more this time around being a year older.

[nycphils]

I hear you, but the Phillies blamed Asdrubal for a bunch of the clubhouse problems they claimed to have in the 2nd half of 2018 - almost certainly they won’t bring him back no matter what.

[nycphils]

I don't think you do this to fill 2B per se though. Ideally you sign Gregorius, move Segura to either 2B or 3B (or both) and pick up another guy to share the 3B load, freeing Kingery to also play CF. Even with the 26th man you can't really sign two platoon IFs (unless you don't get Gregorius or trade Segura). Or you can't keep Quinn.

That’s fair - can always keep Segura as the RHB in the platoon at 2nd base, though $14m is ridiculous for that role but possible since it is a sunk cost, and you’d have a SS backup that is very decent if needed. First choice would be to trade him for salary relief - what a dumb trade that turned out to be.

[Philsmania]

Cabrera was good enough for the Phillies to trade for him in 2018 (and then he was bad) and then bad enough for the Rangers to cut him in 2019 after which the Nationals picked him up and he got hot again.

[Philsmania]

I don't think you do this to fill 2B per se though. Ideally you sign Gregorius, move Segura to either 2B or 3B (or both) and pick up another guy to share the 3B load, freeing Kingery to also play CF. Even with the 26th man you can't really sign two platoon IFs (unless you don't get Gregorius or trade Segura). Or you can't keep Quinn.

That’s fair - can always keep Segura as the RHB in the platoon at 2nd base, though $14m is ridiculous for that role but possible since it is a sunk cost, and you’d have a SS backup that is very decent if needed. First choice would be to trade him for salary relief - what a dumb trade that turned out to be.

Win-now moves that aren't followed by winning often look like dumb moves. Of course, if it is followed by winning, it's a smart move.

[andyb]

I am very interested to know what they feel about SS defense now. They clearly did not care much about it when they traded for Cabrera and played Kingery all the time. Segura used to be average there and seems to have slipped a bit in their eyes last year. Gregorius had the same "slightly below average" fielding stats that Segura had. Do they think Kingery has improved enough that he would be the best option of all three of them there?

I am not sure they themselves know the answer to these questions. They are probably getting a little more sophisticated in how they value defense (hopefully anyway). They also might prefer having the decent offensive bat there no matter what, especially since they don't appear to have plus defensive options. Stott does not project as a great defensive SS either (though he could be good offensively if he can stay there and be adequate defensively).

[flyers19rw]

If Bohm is going to be the 3B in the near future, having an above average defensive SS would seem to be a necessity.

[zambonir]

These stories the last few weeks have all said the Phillies rate Kingery high at SS (and I'm sure the shifts play into the thinking too). That they played him there last year doesn't mean they undervalued defense if they actually rated him ahead of Crawford (correctly or not).

I gotta think so much of how this team was put together still turned on planning to sign Machado rather than Harper. They may well have been ready to move Segura to 2B and ditch Cesar last year. Kingery could have easily been our 3B last year too (and was technically competing with Franco for the job) but then CF opened up.

I don't recall Cabrera being blamed or ID'ed as a clubhouse problem, there was just a general sense that the chemistry was disrupted. And it wasn't just Cabrera, they added Bour and Bautista and Ramos. I always felt the "disruption" was from the guys who lost playing time, not the veteran replacements. Bigger problem was none of them were very good, except Ramos, so the other players might have been right to be annoyed. Of course those players - Santana, Williams, Crawford, Alfaro, everyone but Kingery - are all gone now. (Well, Williams isn't yet.)

It's also still not clear who the bad guy was in Santana vs. Arrieta.