2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

julio 2017-09-13 17:30:06 UTC #1103

I guess we're just going to have to disagree on this one, AF...although I note your hedge there; e.g., "rarely...", which allows you to explain away counter-examples.

No point in continuing the discussion.

Austinfan 2017-09-13 18:02:12 UTC #1104

Most athletes are somewhat lazy, they work on the physical side of the game, but how many were poor students in HS and college? So why do you expect them to spend hours memorizing each player's tendencies? There are a few smart and dedicated enough to put the work in because they know it will give them an edge, and then there are those who learned from experience that they play better if they're not thinking about what they're doing. In between I suspect they're like most people, "don't bother me with too many details."

I'd expect catchers to be self-selected to put the work in, but for a young catcher, keeping track of 390 ML hitters (plus a few pitchers who can stroke) is a lot of work, then throw in AAA hitters and your head starts spinning! It's not like you can do this just in the off-season, you have to constantly update your mental database as hitters make adjustments, are in slumps or hot streaks, etc.

One thing that does drive me crazy, batter sees a pitcher for the first time and swings at the first pitch, now if it's a FB down the middle maybe, but you really need to see a couple pitches to get a feel for his motion and release point, his velocity and how the ball moves out of his hand - and no scouting report can substitute for actually seeing a guy pitch to you from the batter's box.

bigegypt0417 2017-09-13 18:11:43 UTC #1105

Once again...rupp has been awful and you pointed to something that wasn't near true.

Rupp K's at a high rate. You're going to have to face your own bias as your statement made no sense.

Late two weeks...again, he k's a lot but is still hitting better than rupp.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=12180&position=C&type=&gds=2017-08-30&gde=2017-09-12&season=

Austinfan 2017-09-13 18:26:26 UTC #1106

Aren't you the people who keep saying look at minor league performance?
Which is why I don't take his SSS performance seriously, Alfaro was really bad in Lehigh:
May to August: 252 27 54 12 0 4 31 14 94 .213/.256/.310/.566
He turned 24 in June, we're not talking Grullon at 21 in Reading.
So which do you think is the "real" Alfaro:
August .356/.383/.467/.850
September .241/.313/.345/.658

Alfaro has great raw tools, he's athletic for a catcher, great power, strong arm, but he has yet to put it together.
And I don't believe those few weeks in August are for real, not after a terrible AAA season where he went steadily downhill since April.
He may eventually become a decent starting catcher, but he could also end up like Franco and Joseph or worse.

andyb 2017-09-13 18:38:34 UTC #1107

But Alfaro was not "really bad" in LHV. He was off a bit from last year but the season was not a complete disaster. 649 OPS is a little low but it is a tough pitcher's park and he was working on lots of things defensively this year. Knapp was not much better last year and we know that certain pieces of Alfaro's game like power are there even if they did not show up this year. He has been pretty consistently a 750-775 OPS player at each level before that so maybe looking at AAA in isolation is focusing a bit on small sample.

Nobody here disputes that Alfaro swings at bad pitches and needs to learn the strike zone better. But it is a biased view to start from the perspective that he has been "really bad". He has not been really bad. Like many young players he is learning lots of things and there will be bumps in the road. But 99.9% of the baseball world thinks he is better than Rupp now with significant room for improvement. Part of the reason behind that is that Rupp is not that good (offensively or defensively).

There is just not much of a reason to consider Rupp as anything more than a veteran backup and insurance policy. The best thing for the team's future is probably to roll the dice on Alfaro and hope the tools pull him through a rough rookie year to the point where the other parts of his game start to improve. Grullon is also nowhere near the point where he should be considered as anything more than a backup catcher potentially. Probably better than Logan Moore, but closer to Moore than Alfaro as a prospect.

bigegypt0417 2017-09-13 18:50:33 UTC #1108

You're going to have to try really hard to walk away from what you actually said...

Alfaro is making Rupp look like next year's starting catcher,

Even if that's the real Alfaro he's right there with Rupp.

Your statement makes you seem biased even though rupp k's at a spectacular rate himself.

He's also trnding up in that department over the last 3 years with this year being 33.5%

zambonir 2017-09-13 18:56:54 UTC #1109

I think the team can afford to carry three catchers next year, because it's still a developmental season, if an occasional short situation costs them one game, who cares? Plus, look at who the 25th bench player has been this season at various points in time. Yeah, a third catcher can't play 2B or CF like Ty Kelly or Pedro Florimon but if they carry two middle IFs (say, Florimon and Galvis) that's okay. And the 3rd catcher also won't be brimming with offense, but that was also true of Stassi and Perkins (and Kim).

What you lose maybe is a LH bench bat who can play 1B/3B, but if Galvis or Crawford are going to play there some they don't need that quite so much (and Knapp is still your extra 1B).

Austinfan 2017-09-13 18:57:47 UTC #1110

That's your opinion.
After watching Alfaro, I don't know if he'll even be an average defensive catcher. Looks awkward behind the plate.
While Grullon from all reports is the best defensive catcher in the organization.

.649 OPS (and trending dramatically downward, not what you want to see from a young hitter) is not good for a hitting catcher at age 24.
Nor was his road performance that great in Reading in 2016: .249/.295/.409/.705
Rupp at 24 posted .269/.309/.423/.732 at Lehigh.
So you can't even claim Alfaro out hit him at the same age.

Grullon at 20 put up .256/.320/.375/.695 at :Lakewood
then at 21 put up .255/.287/.395/.682 at Clearwater and didn't look overmatched at Reading
Like Alfaro, he has issues with plate discipline.
Given his age, I think he has more upside than Alfaro, but he's also a question mark, we'll learn a lot next season.

andyb 2017-09-13 19:02:47 UTC #1111

It is actually a little bit bigger problem because the team if often going with a 4-man bench these days rather than 5-man. One backup catcher, one middle infielder, and one credible OF are essential. With 2 extra spots you could have a Ty Kelly and then a 3rd catcher. With only one though you get pretty thin pretty quickly.

andyb 2017-09-13 19:04:06 UTC #1112

Well it is kind of the opinion of most scouts. They see Grullon as a backup and Alfaro as a starter. That has not changed even with the flaws in Alfaro's game. But I guess you know more than all these scouts.

Austinfan 2017-09-13 19:19:17 UTC #1113

You mean the scouts who didn't consider Hoskins a top prospect?
Yeah, I probably do!
Alfaro is strictly a "tools" guy, similar to Cozens, where scouts overlook obvious flaws because the tools are so impressive.
Hewitt had great "tools", where is he now?

But when you hit 24, who gives a fig about tools, you have to start producing.
Next year Alfaro will be 25, if he isn't starting and posting a > .750 OPS he's a JAG, because he's below average defensively (and was at Lehigh by all reports, so it's not jitters).
And if he can't stay behind the plate, he needs a > .800 OPS to play RF.

I didn't like the trade based around him, because of his extreme lack of plate discipline, and I don't like what I see in the majors - he can mash FBs in the zone, but he swings too hard and lacks pitch recognition. He IS Rupp at 24, the question is whether he'll be Rupp at 28.

I do think they should send Rupp to an eye doctor, he misses too many fat pitches in the K-zone.

zambonir 2017-09-13 19:34:18 UTC #1114

I don't think we saw the Phillies use a four-man bench much, if at all, this season. Maybe for a few days when they needed an extra arm or were carrying a player without putting him on the DL. But they opened the year with Knapp, Blanco, Nava, Stassi and Altherr, and almost any time Kelly, Perkins or Florimon has been on the team they've been the 5th bench player.

If it turns into a problem you can always option Knapp, or cut loose the veteran defensive guy after a half-season.

We'll see, we had the same conversation last year and they came close to doing it (or at least to choosing a vet over Knapp) but didn't. All I know for sure is Rupp or Knapp will be gone, and it will probably be Rupp. But trading Knapp too, or sending him to AAA, doesn't seem like a good solution. And the way things have went with the pitching and the catching this season there may be more urgency to get that defensive upgrade/mentor.

andyb 2017-09-13 19:40:52 UTC #1115

Scouts always considered Hoskins a prospect. Just not a top one because he has little defensive value and was never young for his level. Hoskins (so far anyway) has exceeded expectations and that is great. It does not mean scouts were wrong though.

Hewitt was NEVER considered a real prospect though after a year or two. He was only tools and even when he was drafted he was considered a reach by most analysts. Where you do yourself a disservice is completely ignoring Alfaro's history. He has a half dozen years of decent, progressively better performance, both offensively and defensively. You just completely ignore this and start talking about whether he can stay behind the plate. In other words you cherry pick a narrative that is basically false to reinforce your points that are not really backed up in data.

And you are basically saying you know more than scouts and analysts. You are of course entitled to your opinion though. It is just a little arrogant to completely dismiss the experts in the field as automatically being wrong. There are many very good players who are aggressive at the plate and do not have stellar walk rates. You just don't acknowledge their existence. It is almost funny to see you dismiss Alfaro as a prospect and then in the next sentence say that Rupp just needs to see an eye doctor. Rupp will turn 29 in a few weeks. He has a career 708 OPS with a varying but consistently high K rate. He is what he is.

California_Dreamin 2017-09-13 19:57:36 UTC #1116

AF...you mentioned how batters that swing at the first pitch drive you crazy and I think most agree with you, but I addressed this issue a few weeks ago and while its a taboo issue to discuss with professional players, some players simply have more of a "fear of failure" in them than they do a "desire to succeed."

I am speaking specifically of Franco's at bat last night, that absolutely maddening one when the previous three hitters had gone walk, walk, HBP. Franco was up with the bags loaded, one out, lefty on the mound...what more could a right handed power hitter like Franco want?

Yet I suspect Franco was more worried about striking out in that situation than he was in potentially breaking the game wide open...and swung defensively at the first pitch he saw, not because it was one he could drive but so he wouldn't fall behind in the count.

This generally is a weakness of hitters who are struggling [Franco is] or who are recent call-ups, that embarrassment of striking out in a big situation is very tough. This is one of the things that makes Hoskins so impressive, he has that quiet confidence of a guy who simply KNOWS he is a good hitter. Goodness gracious, he had just struck out 3 times in his previous game and yet nothing in his demeanor or approach changed. Impressive.

If there is one thing that worries me about Franco going forward, its not his arm bar, its not his swing, its not his pulling his head off the ball. All of those can be fixed. But a fear of failure, that absolute fear of striking out in a key situation is much harder to fix. Hopefully, experience, and possibly some success will change it.

But it won't be easy and no amount of Stairs coaxing and cajoling are likely to matter.

Austinfan 2017-09-13 20:09:45 UTC #1117

CD, you may be on to something.

It's hard from our vantage point to separate the physical (simply lacks the eyes/reaction time to pick up the ball out of the pitchers hand and has to guess) from the mental (gets overeager and commits to swing because he can't stay calm). The same with pitchers, is it bad mechanics or lack of "cool" that causes pitchers to overthrow and "yank" pitches?

Whereas Rupp may simply not see the ball (misses too many fat pitches in the K-zone), I don't know if that's Franco's issue.
He seems to want to attack the pitch instead of letting the game come to him, at times he'll be patient, and even draw walks, then next AB the helmet flies off.
I see a similar issue with Alfaro, it's like he's decided he's going to swing before the pitch leaves the hand. And he's trying to hit every ball 500 feet.
I don't know if the mental issue is anymore "fixable" than the physical issue.
Some players may just be wound too tight, and can't deal with the stress of waiting out an AB.

Then there's Herrera, I don't think he feels any fear of failure, rather, he's just so exuberant it spills over to his hitting style, he just loves to swing, and has to control himself, but even when swinging at bad pitches he usually has a nice stroke. I think in his case, he just has to learn to get some joy out of hustling a walk because he loves to hit so much.

With guys like Altherr and Williams I think you see what "normal" players are like, they hit in the minors but as they rise through the ranks eventually learn they have to become more disciplined, focus on it, and improve over time. I think that ability to adjust and make improvements is what separates prospects from suspects, most players are talented, but not uber-talented to where they can just get by on pure talent and have to learn how to play the game. Hitters have to learn to work an AB, pitchers how to pitch instead of throw.

julio 2017-09-13 20:46:47 UTC #1118

DurhamBull 2017-09-13 20:52:03 UTC #1119

I think that's a great perspective on Herrera.

donaldorc 2017-09-13 21:15:25 UTC #1120

I haven't been this excited about tuning in to a Phillies game for a long time as I am now. Hoskins, Williams, Altherr, even Alfaro generate the youth and enthusiasm that gives me goosebumps even when they lose. If their young pitchers could develop a bit more consistency, this could really be a competitive team.

Time to drop Galvis lower in the lineup.

Lawman 2017-09-13 21:16:39 UTC #1121

allentown 2017-09-13 22:14:59 UTC #1122

I don't expect the players to do this study and memorization, That is the job of the scouts and coaches. I do expect our scouts, and our minor league managers, to study the abilities/weaknesses/tendencies of other team's top prospects. I do expect our major league pitching and hitting coaches to know the specifics about the opposing team's starting lineup and pitcher and to relay this information with a plan for exploiting it to our starting pitcher and starting lineup. That includes the prospect pitcher just up from AAA and facing us for the first time. I also expect our hitting and pitching coaches to explain our players' weaknesses to them so they can work to correct them and know how the opposing team is likely to try to exploit them.