2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[Austinfan]

If you look at the last couple years of FA signings, there are a few big deals but also some unexpectedly short/lower cost deals.
It's a musical chairs proposition, a few teams are hot to trot, but once they stop throwing money around the market gets tight and agents take whatever deal they can get.
In the past, I think some deals were fueled by franchises with a lot of money to spend, while most salaries weren't that high and other teams didn't have money.
Over the past few years, teams have more $10+M players, and that cuts into "free money" under a more stringent salary cap.
Teams are also locking up their best players early, which both reduces their extra money and reduces the pool of attractive free agents.

There will still be a few head scratchers each year, and a few mega-contracts, but looking at the last two FA campaigns, sanity is slowly coming to that market.
So it wouldn't surprise me at all if a couple solid pitchers were available at a reasonable cost after the overpays.

[andyb]

But you don't give credit for Darvish in Japan and all the years of durability. This is must a meaningless point on your part. Maybe Lester is SLIGHTLY more durable than Darvish. But Darvish is clearly durable and you are misleading people if you say he is not.

On Lester you also cherry-pick WAR: 6.1, 6.3, 5.2, 4.4, 0.7, 3.0, 4.6 is his 7 year sequence.
Darvish on a 7-year sequence is x.x, x.x, 3.9, 5.8, 3.2 (4.7 pro-rated), 2.5 (4.7 pro-rated), 3.3 (3.7 maybe pro-rated to about 30 starts)

In the 2 x.x years early on you have Lester at age 24 and 25 and no reference for Darvish in 2 seasons where he had 1.78 and 1.44 ERAs in Japan. Which could have been as good as Lester.

So let's look at the 5 years pre-free agency with pro-rating (which admittedly helps Darvish):
Lester: 5,2, 4,4, 0.7, 3.0, 4.6 = 17.9 (3.6 average)
Darvish: 3.9, 5.8, 4.7, 4.7, 3.7 = 22.8 (4.6 average)
even without the pro-rating Darvish has 18.7 WAR in the 5 years versus 17.9 for Lester.

So when you say Lester is better, you are just wrong.

And BTW NOBODY even claimed Lester is better. You claimed the Cubs did not sign any big free agents before their breakout year as an excuse to say the Phillies should not either. And you are wrong on that point too.

Both pitchers are durable. Both pitchers are good. Anything else is splitting hairs and avoiding the whole topic of discussion which is whether the Phillies should use their money to sign a good pitcher. I think they should. You think they shouldn't. Darvish will be expensive and risky. I know that. But he is also good and durable. The whole world except you seems to know that part.

[California_Dreamin]

PC..gotta disagree with you my friend, moving a reliever who was never coming back to the Phils for a young infield prospect with the "hit tool" is a great move. Klentak is accumulating talented middle infield prospects in large quantities and he will let this all play out and may the best players win.

Also worth noting that middle infielders are the most likely to be comfortable moving to the outfield. I think getting Alvarez and Gomez were major coups for MK, they are already Top 30 prospects in the system and both are still growing into their skills.

Great "out of the box" move!

[Austinfan]

We have plenty of money to pick up a couple RPs this winter (and flip them in July), so getting a legitimate prospect is a big bonus.
People harp that he got nothing for $60M, but Klentak, even with some bad luck, garnered about 5 WAR plus Mills (22 MILB), Garcia (17 MILB), McGarry, Hammer and Requena. And now he added Alvarez (26).
All for "money."
Isn't that exactly what people wanted him to do?

I'll be happy if he can do deals this winter for 3rd tier FAs that garner us 4-5 WAR plus another 3 top 30 and 3-4 top 50 prospects in July and August.

They're called "assets." Most will probably never play for the Phillies, but unlike 5-10 years ago, we can package 3-4 of these guys in a trade and hardly notice their absence.

[phillychuck]

PC..gotta disagree with you my friend, moving a reliever who was never coming back to the Phils for a young infield prospect with the "hit tool" is a great move. Klentak is accumulating talented middle infield prospects in large quantities and he will let this all play out and may the best players win.

CD, I respect your opinion but I don't agree that he has the hit tool. He spent 4 years (!) in rookie leagues and was not good this year in the Texas League. I know he double-jumped, but he's got lots of professional experience so he should have adjusted to the placement. I think he's organizational fodder.

[andyb]

CD, I respect your opinion but I don't agree that he has the hit tool. He spent 4 years (!) in rookie leagues and was not good this year in the Texas League. I know he double-jumped, but he's got lots of professional experience so he should have adjusted to the placement. I think he's organizational fodder.

I think it is too early to say. I agree the 4 seasons in short season leagues made his breakout in Low A at age 21 less impressive. They then double-jumped him because he was already rule 5 eligible. We did the same thing with Cesar Hernandez. 4 seasons in rookie/short season A. We double jumped him to Clearwater after his 4th (not his 5th season). And he struggled there with a .639 OPS. He improved after that in AA and AAA.

I don't dismiss a player because he struggles after a double jump. I might if he struggles the season after that. I do not like him as much as MLB.com. Would definitely take our own prospects like Brito and Gamboa over him because of their tools. But this guy could be another Valentin and that is not nothing. He has some value and a year to prove it.

[Austinfan]

That still has trade value.
Thin organizations need that kind of fodder to provide short-term starters and utility players at low cost.
If you look at a lot of trades, there's usually 1 top prospect, 1 2nd tier prospect, and two guys who are quality "fodder."
Hamels trade is a good example, elite pitcher at the top of his game garnered two top prospects (Williams, Alfaro), a second tier prospect (Thompson) and two fodder pitchers, Eickhoff and Asher.

The ability to throw in cash and fodder allows Klentak more flexibility in constructing deals, including one less prime prospect, for example.
We want "X" included, how about I give you $3M plus "Y" and "Z" instead?

[allentown]

But if he could get Arrieta on a reasonable 3 year deal, he might go for it. Or Cobb on a 2 year deal.
He'll add at least one veteran SP, and a veteran RP or two in free agency

This is the key point: what is a reasonable deal? You cite your background in economics and then consistently depart from economic theory. A reasonable deal is a deal for something you want at a price close to the market price. The price might be slightly below market or slightly above, but more than about a 20% deviation from market means either buyer or seller is being screwed or you don't understand the proper position of the 'something' in its market. Baseball has set a market value for FA #2/3 starters. It has set a price in $/years a lot higher than you see as reasonable, but your sense of reasonableness must give way to the market's judgment. The guys the Phillies have signed for what you see as 'reasonable' $ one- and two-year deals have been busts. To me, this says that you and the Phillies didn't understand the place of these guys in the market. Burnett, Morton, Buchholtz just weren't healthy enough to have great value or be substantial MLB contributors. They were 'reasonably priced' but there was a reason for that, just as we were the only participant (and a novice in the Cuban market) for MAG toward the end of the bidding process. The other teams apparently didn't trust his arm. For some reason. we did. Then he failed the physical. But we signed him anyway, to relatively big $ -- low compared to some Cubans, but as it turns out still very high for his specific individual place (injured arm) in the market. His arm never was healthy. For some other strange reason, the clock was run and the MAG chapter was over, without ever going the aggressive medical treatment route.

This is a long way of saying you won't get a healthy Arrietta, or Darvish or Lynn or Cobb on what you define as a 'reasonable' 2 - 3 year deal. Other teams will bid for their services, based upon the established MLB market price for a FA. If we do succeed in signing one of them for a 'reasonable' deal, it will be like Gillick's Garcia trade or MAG: we misjudged the position of an unhealthy player in the market. If your deal looks way better than the normal FA top pitcher deal, there will be a reason for that.

This impacts the grow-your-own approach. We paid top $ to resign Howard, Utley. It applies to guys gotten in trade. We paid top $ to sign Lidge. There is almost no difference in $/years for your own guys nearing the end of team control, guys you traded for with a year or two of remaining control, and actual FA. They are all part of the auction market, this is their livelihood and how they provide for their children's futures -- they and their agents know the market. You don't get a hometown discount -- unless perhaps the guy has a particular need for money today, or doesn't see his future as being quite as bright as the team does (perhaps feeling more back, arm, knee aches or finding it harder to deal with top FB).

We can likely get one of Machado, Harper, Trout. We have to be willing to pay a bit above market, because we are neither a top team today or a premium destination city. The serious offers likely start at $300-350 million for these three.

[allentown]

He might or might not make it. He's probably around low 30s on our list of prospects. Still, we aren't going to get anything for our reliever and having him pitch and give us perhaps an additional win or two is pretty much the definition of worsening your draft position for a gain which has zero sustainability. Better to give the pen experience for a guy with a small chance of being as good but a large chance of being with the Phillies organization next season.

[bkox]

Here is a surprising factoid. Who leads the majors in wRC+ in the second half? Trout? Stanton? Blackmon? Nope... According to Matt Winkleman its Odubel Herrera.

Matt Winkelman (Matt_Winkelman)

Matt Winkelman (Matt_Winkelman)

Thats an 1.135 OPS. For comparison Stanton's 2nd half OPS is 1.175.

[Austinfan]

I don't believe in economic theory. Because there aren't no such animal, at least in the sense of the physical sciences (started out as a science major as an undergraduate). There are numerous economic models.
I agree with Box: "All models are wrong, some models are useful."
So what you look for are economic models that might apply to this particular situation.

The model you'd want to look at here isn't the traditional supply and demand model taught in freshman economics, but auction models of thin markets with insufficient information.
And the "bidder's curse" applies to free agency.
Those who are more optimistic about a player's future production, or have high discount rates (GMs with impatient owners with money to burn) will overbid for players.
The rational strategy is to let the overbidders buy first, then enter the market once they've become cash flow constrained.
You should set a reservation price on each free agent based on expected production and their marginal value of that production to your team (i.e. how much will they improve your team), and stick to it.
So for example, a SP has more value per WAR to the Phillies right now than an OF b/c they have a solid current OF and three top prospects on the way, but a solid SP can improve each starting slot as well as protect young pitchers.
But expected future production (i.e. 2020 and out) would not be as highly discounted by the Phillies as by other teams because it has more value than 2018 production in terms of their ultimate goal.

Doesn't mean you won't make mistakes, there's a high degree of variance and crap happens, see Morton.
Though if you systematically make mistakes, get better scouts and analysts.

[flyers19rw]

I still think we're gonna hear the Yelich/Stanton talk this season, though Williams has certainly changed things (though you would just include him in the trade. The thing is, you don't give up as much now, because you're like, "we like our OF, we're not motivated to give you that good a package").

Z, I am with you on the Yelich/Stanton book not being closed. Like it or not, The Marlins badly need to shed salary. The three that they have to deal are Yelich, Stanton and Gordon. If they were able to do that and get decent MLB ready talent in return, they would have a team that had a building base and reasonable costs.
With all of the middle infielders that the Phillies have, there is no reason for them to acquire Gordon. Let the Fish palm him off on some other franchise. Trading the two OFs really clears the books for Florida. Other teams like the Giants and Cardinals are said to be interested in making a deal to get them. However they don't have the prospects to offer that the Phillies have and its questionable if they could afford to take on both players. Aside from money, the probable cost to the Phillies would be Altherr, Williams, Hernandez and a pitcher like Velasquez or Eflin if they could pass the physical. It would be a stiff price but it might be worth the cost.
We'll have to wait and see what happens. The Marlins' sale is far from complete with MLB presently questioning whether the buyers are operating with funny money or not.

[bigegypt0417]

Lester was signed before the 2015 season, 6yrs, $155M
Very durable pitcher (32 starts, 206 IP per year from 2009 to 2014).
31 when the new contract started in 2015, 3.1 (5.0 FG) WAR, 5.3 (4.4) WAR, 0.5 (2.5) WAR this year at 33 as his FB velocity has fallen by more than 1 MPH.
Lester when signed was a year younger, far more durable and a better pitcher than Darvish.

That's not the point...I'm showing you that teams start to build for contention any possible way they can in the years leading up to being ready. You're making my point for me...

[allentown]

The model you'd want to look at here isn't the traditional supply and demand model taught in freshman economics, but auction models of thin markets with insufficient information.

Yes, baseball is a thin market, both for buyers and for sellers. It is still a market and the auction does set market value. As I stated, there is less than perfect information, although other teams seem to have more information than the Phillies. Most of our economy runs on a thin market with well less than perfect information and the provision of that information being intended and more likely to obfuscate than to enlighten. In even a thin market, your chances of getting a significantly below market value deal are very small.

[zambonir]

I don't think the Phillies can or should pay that stiff a price if it's both outfielders. The only reason to bundle them is to lower the price of Yelich by taking Stanton's contract. Yelich alone or Stanton alone would be something else but Yelich just doesn't look as attractive to me as he did three months ago (when Herrera was scuffling and Williams was in AAA).

[bkox]

Meghan Montemurro (M_Montemurro)

[flyers19rw]

Both Stanton and Yelich are established MLB regulars of potential AS play. Put them together with Herrera and one has a stellar OF.
Granted giving up Williams and Altherr is a solid offer but to get you still have to give. Low ball the Marlins and they'll go elsewhere for the deal. Additionally neither Altherr or Williams has shown that they can produce for a full MLB season. There are some indications that they can but it's not a lock.
I think that some team will offer the Marlins close to what I suggest to make that deal. Now if Yelich and Stanton are not coupled in a deal, it's a different story. I wouldn't be interested in a Stanton/Gordon deal or a deal for Gordon or Yelich straight up. Stanton alone would be awful costly to give up much to obtain.

[Philsmania]

I don't think the Marlins new owners will want to introduce themselves to Miami (or whatever is left of it after Irma) by holding a fire sale.

[bkox]

Stanton is NOT worth giving up prospects for... We have a solid cheap OF in place that could be just as good or better then one of Herrera/Yelich/Stanton. And OF seems to be where our minors are strongest as well.. Tocci, Cozens (albeit I dont expect him to ever be much anymore) Randolph, Moniak, Haseley, Oritz, etc.

Besides you would need to negotiate with Stanton to drop the no trade and that probably means more guaranteed money going out. He can opt out after 2020 (you know the year we expect to finanly be competing for the playoffs) and if hes still hitting 50+HRs he will want more money.. and if hes not that means hes already declining as he enters the 30M+ per year part of his contract.

Plus he turns 28 in Nov. Meaning this year might be his peak year. AND in his 7 full seasons hes played, this is the FIRST year he hasnt spent any time on the DL. This and 2011 are the only 2 years he will have played 150 games

Overrated! Why Giancarlo Stanton's home runs aren't nearly as impressive as you...

[bkox]

I don't think the Marlins new owners will want to introduce themselves to Miami (or whatever is left of it after Irma) by holding a fire sale.

Marlins new owners have said they want a payroll between 70-80M. Stanton (25M) and Yelich (7M) would account for 32M of that next year