2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[phillychuck]

I'm in. Don't think they'll trade Cole for that, though. (That's assuming we're going to trade Hernandez regardless--I'd want to keep him and insert Galvis)

[bkox]

Cole Hamels says Phillies will be like Astros. Might he be part of it?

[GhostofHud]

Don't like Cole's temperament.

[bigegypt0417]

I'm in. Don't think they'll trade Cole for that, though. (That's assuming we're going to trade Hernandez regardless--I'd want to keep him and insert Galvis)

Hernandez is our most valuable and expendable player...galvis doesn't get you much.

[Austinfan]

Lester was on the roster when they won 73 games.

[Philsmania]

Cole Hamels says Phillies will be like Astros. Might he be part of it?

Is Hamels trying to grow a handlebar with that mustache?

[bigegypt0417]

So you mean they began building for a winner in the years before they were competitive?

[Philsmania]

I don't think the Pirates trade Cole. He's still under team control for two years and they are in that gray area where they cannot really commit to tear it down and start rebuilding. Oftentimes, that point only becomes obvious in hindsight (see the Phillies after 2012).

[Austinfan]

Top round picks aren't what turned Houston around, Altuve was signed for $10K, and he's their top player.
There were some top draft picks: Springer #11 (2011), Correa was #1 (2012), McCullers #41 (2012), Fisher #37 (2014), Bregman #2 (2015),
Keuchel 7th rd 2009, Martes $100K, Feliz $400K are other organizational players.
Most of their talent came from trades.

2010 draft: DeShields #8, Velasquez 2nd rd
2011 draft: Springer #11,
2012 draft: Correa #1, McCullers #41
2013 draft: Appel #1,
2014 draft: Aiken #1 (didn't sign), Fisher #37,
2015 draft: Bregman #2, Tucker #5
Really bad drafting, outside of the very high picks and a couple 2nd rd picks, no one above replacement level.

[Lawman]

Or his mustache.

[Philsmania]

Top round picks aren't what turned Houston around, Altuve was signed for $10K, and he's their top player.
There were some top draft picks: Springer #11 (2011), Correa was #1 (2012), McCullers #41 (2012), Fisher #37 (2014), Bregman #2 (2015),
Keuchel 7th rd 2009, Martes $100K, Feliz $400K are other organizational players.
Most of their talent came from trades.

2010 draft: DeShields #8, Velasquez 2nd rd
2011 draft: Springer #11,
2012 draft: Correa #1, McCullers #41
2013 draft: Appel #1,
2014 draft: Aiken #1 (didn't sign), Fisher #37,
2015 draft: Bregman #2, Tucker #5
Really bad drafting, outside of the very high picks and a couple 2nd rd picks, no one above replacement level.

Every now and then you see a farm system get overhyped and every prospect in that system comes to be seen as a future star. That sometimes causes other teams to make some very ill-advised deals with that team. I saw that happen with the Mets system in the '80's which had the perception of being ubber-loaded. That enabled them to snooker the Royals for David Cone. I wonder if that happened with Houston.

[Austinfan]

Lester was signed before the 2015 season, 6yrs, $155M
Very durable pitcher (32 starts, 206 IP per year from 2009 to 2014).
31 when the new contract started in 2015, 3.1 (5.0 FG) WAR, 5.3 (4.4) WAR, 0.5 (2.5) WAR this year at 33 as his FB velocity has fallen by more than 1 MPH.
Lester when signed was a year younger, far more durable and a better pitcher than Darvish.

[andyb]

3 of 5 Houston offensive players were top picks: Correa, Bregman, and Springer. Altuve was good scouting and blind luck. Appel also helped get them their 4th best pitcher (Giles), so I don't think the drafting is as bad as you imply. Everyone hits on a percentage of draftees and Correa might be worth 5 years of drafts.

Houston got better with a combination of drafting, astute Latin American signings, high priced free agents, trades, and a little luck in Altuve and Keuchel. In other words the way most good teams get better.

Not sure what the point is if again it is to say the Phillies should not spend any money on free agents or risky trades for veterans. Because that is exactly what Houston has done. Teams get rid of their salary problems to get prospects. Then they spend money to slot good players around the young players. It is only sustainable if they have the young core, but it is not as if the strategy I recommend for the Phillies is that different. And potentially we have a bit more money to execute it.

[zambonir]

I think it's funny to complain about the return for Nicasio too but I presume PC doesn't think Alvarez is worth the 40 spot. But yes, maybe he'll be included in the Cole trade.

[andyb]

Lester is not better than Darvish. And outside of the TJ surgery he is not much more durable either. You are adding the last 3 years of durability and assuming we of course would have known that before he signed as a free agent. I don't know why you are arguing durability with Darvish. He has pitched consistently for over a decade with one year lost for TJ surgery. Some argue that a pitcher that has demonstrated health after TJ surgery might be a lesser risk to get hurt since Lester might be pitching on the last frayed ligaments in his elbow.

And in WAR per year pro-rated for playing time Darvish is just as good if not better than Lester.

You are just grasping at straws here since the whole part of Lester being discussed was to show how ridiculous your statement was that the Cubs did not add any big free agents.

[Austinfan]

The 7 years of 32 starts and 206 innings pitched were BEFORE he was a free agent, that's a heck of a track record.
Darvish had one season over 4 WAR (2013) in his entire career..
Lester from 2008 to 2014, had 30.1 WAR or 4.3 per season. Darvish from 2012 to 2017 has 18.7 WAR or 3.7 per season (missed a year due to TJ).
There's no comparison, Lester was hands down better than Darvish, more durable than Darvish and a year younger than Darvish when he hit free agency.

[zambonir]

It is almost guaranteed the Phillies are going to sign their own Jon Lester coming off of a losing season, it's just a question of which season (unless they win 81 games or more in 2018). And then, also like the Cubs, they will sign their Heyward (never mind that he was an offensive disappointment). The Astros have three big free agents this season, they're just not star-level free agents,but the Phillies have a lot more money than the Astros.

It will be interesting to see, Klentak did see kind of the worst of big free agent signings at his last job.

[Austinfan]

I'm more concerned with the trades Klentak almost has to make over the next twelve months.
I think he'll definitely use the "house money" to sweeten those deals (a far cry from when the Phillies would beg for cash in trades).
Throw in a few million in cash, take on a bad contract, "buy" someone's LA allocation.

Otherwise I think he'll be cautious, as Zambonir points out, Klentak has seen some bad signings first hand. And the whole organization has a Howard hangover.
I think he'll look at the top 3 pitchers, kick the tires, but if a bidding war erupts, move on rather than grossly overpay. But if he could get Arrieta on a reasonable 3 year deal, he might go for it. Or Cobb on a 2 year deal.
He'll add at least one veteran SP, and a veteran RP or two in free agency, and he's more like to spend on the RPs because outside of closers you can get good value, and they're highly valued come July.

If the Phillies finish 2018 around .500, especially the 2nd half (while this year's second half is encouraging, at this point in the rebuild it's also probably "fool's gold"), he might overpay next winter for a SP.

I don't think they'll sign their "Heyward." Machado is the obvious name, but I think that's a pipedream, the Mets are already sniffing around, and some other big franchises will be in on the bidding.
I could see them signing more of a Polanco type for 3B, other than that, they won't be in the Harper bidding, not with 3 1st rd OFs behind Williams - Herrera - Altherr. The rest of the IF is set.
Pitching will be the focus, but I see more of the same, Klentak loading up on minor league arms, through LA, the draft and trades. At some point trading quantity for quality.

[zambonir]

The most fascinating thing to me about that Hamels story is that his kids still go to school in PA. I guess we were talking about that in terms of Verlander, that he and Kate Upton wouldn't want to live somewhere like Philly. Where these guys play and where they live is hardly ever the same.

[zambonir]

I don't think they'll sign their "Heyward." Machado is the obvious name, but I think that's a pipedream, the Mets are already sniffing around, and some other big franchises will be in on the bidding.
I could see them signing more of a Polanco type for 3B, other than that, they won't be in the Harper bidding, not with 3 1st rd OFs behind Williams - Herrera - Altherr. The rest of the IF is set.

This assumes they won't trade some of those young OFs and that the current starting OF is guaranteed to stick after just one season of evidence, which as we've seen from 3B is hardly guaranteed. I still think we're gonna hear the Yelich/Stanton talk this season, though Williams has certainly changed things (though you would just include him in the trade. The thing is, you don't give up as much now, because you're like, "we like our OF, we're not motivated to give you that good a package").

And if they get Harper they'd also probably trade Herrera. And just being able to take him from the Nats and keep him from the Mets would have value you can't include in WAR/$ calculation.

They want one of those guys (unless they are able to trade for Trout or someone else). The marketing department wants one of those guys. The current approach is not about being smart (exclusively) or thrifty. They have been clearing the decks to spend in 2019 all along. And that also means they will overpay for a pitcher, even if it's not this year.

I'd like to sign Jake Arrieta on a "reasonable three-year deal" too, but I'd also like Mark Appel to be the 2018 Rookie of the Year. They're equally likely.