2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[andyb]

The Cubs did sign Lester before their 97 win season. Houston traded for McCann at $17 million, signed Beltran for $16 million, and Reddick for $13 million this year. Plus Gurriel the year before.

Sometimes it is hard to discern your point. Teams often add expensive free agents (or trade for expensive players) in the year before they have their big win jump.

And the Phillies will leave more than $100 million unspent if we don't add more than the random $60 million we did last time. So we are very different in our actual ability to add good but expensive players.

Also, don't keep repeating the fact that teams need a core of good, young, and inexpensive players to compete. We know that. Nobody disagrees. We just don't get why you want to limit the franchise into trying to compete without spending money.

[harrisburghusker]

I think it's a contending OF and upgrades 1B at the same time. If Crawford could OBP .340 at SS, you suddenly have the makings of a very good lineup

[Austinfan]

I said I'm happy to spend money on short-term deals this year, like last year.
I just don't think there's any pitcher out there that makes sense on more than a three year deal, just because you can overpay, doesn't mean you should overpay.
It's one thing to pay Kershaw or Scherzer in their 20s, with a long history of reliability, $35M for 6 or 7 years.
It's quite another to pay Darvish, Arrieta or Lynn, in their 30s, $25M for 5 or 6 years. To me they're worth 3yr/$75M, 4 yr/$90M, 5yr$100M. Because they won't be 3-4 WAR pitchers in 3 years, much less 5 years.
We've seen a number of pitchers on new contracts fall off the cliff after a couple years to replacement or a little above.
I figure these guys have an expected contract value between 7-10 WAR, which even at an inflated cost of $10M a WAR, fits my contract parameters.

i've said repeatedly we should follow the same strategy as last year, better off trading for bad contracts and signing third tier FAs than grossly overpaying second tier FAs.

[schooldoc]

No responses to my proposed trade of Cesar, Kilome, & Randolph for Gerrit Cole?

[Florida_Sunshine]

But there is another alternative. Do what the Yankees did in trading for the pitcher from the A's. Yes, it will cost prospects, but that is our one weakness that is major. And yes, I am willing to do that even though I like our young prospects and think that they will help fill our pitching needs. They just need more time. The rest of the lineup is close to being ready.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I think I would do that.

[andyb]

But you don't get the central point that every way you want to spend money is unrealistic. There is nothing wrong with overpaying somewhat if you have no other way to use that money to make the team better.

What we did last year was not adequate. We need to do more. Free agents will laugh at your proposed deals.

[Soloman_grundy]

I'm a nanosecond

[Austinfan]

Let someone else play the greater fool.
You can get a good but overpaid pitcher by trading second tier prospects, which we have plenty.
You can patch with third tier prospects and walk away from the bad decisions without looking back.

My suspicion is that the money isn't going to be there, it wasn't last year, teams have been burnt overpaying second tier guys and will be more wary.
Do you want to be the GM telling the owner that he's got to pay the two guys you signed a year ago $50M a year between them for the next five years even though they suck?

[EDmuch]

schooldoc: I would never make that trade. Hernandez alone is worth at least Cole. IN fact Hernandez for Cole straight up is probably an over payment.

[andyb]

But you can't get a good pitcher for second tier or third tier prospects. The last 2 years show that.

All signings have risk. The owners should have no problem paying Darvish for 6 years if he is good for 3 of them. And that is more likely than your pay $50 million for 5 years when they suck. Good pitchers don't fail at that rate.

Which leads us to the central questions again that you really don't want to spend any real money. You have not explained how you would use the team's money to make it better. Still. I'd like to trade Rupp for Mike Trout also but I don't propose that because I know it is unrealistic.

[allentown]

Teams that turn it around quickly tend to have a core group of veterans, often coming off injuries, that bounce back.

"tend to" being the operative words. :Most teams in the Phillies position don't have our $ advantage or choose not to lose it. In terms of preserving young talent for an extended run of good seasons, it is far better to deploy the $ pre-season than to have to make an in-season trade of prospects for talent. Of course any FAs we sign will 'underperform' on a $/contract-WAR basis -- that's a given, simply the nature of the FA beast and baseball's experience-based salary system. At this point in the Phillies turn-around, overspending just doesn't matter.

[bigegypt0417]

Teams that turn it around quickly tend to have a core group of veterans, often coming off injuries, that bounce back.
This team doesn't have that kind of kick start back to contention, it's more like Houston or Chicago, where they had to build up the core.
Cubs, 61, 66, 73, 97, the big jump wasn't a big FA push, Fowler on a 1 year deal, Hammel signed as a FA after they traded him the previous July, Haren, July trade.
Houston, 56, 55, 51, 70, 86, 84, 100?, no big FA move
Nationals, 59, 59, 69, 80, 98, Werth was signed before the 2011 season, Edwin Jackson was their other "big signing."

FA acquisitions rarely move the needle because they usually underperform their new contracts, most are over 30 and getting paid for what they did, not what they're going to do.
It comes down to talent on the roster and smart trades - if you don't do that, you can't spend your way into contention, if you do that well, FA signings are icing on the cake.

Are you intentionally leaving Jon Lester off the list to make your point?

Here's their roster...

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/roster.php?y=2016&t=CHN

[teabag259]

I would never make that trade. Hernandez alone is worth at least Cole. IN fact Hernandez for Cole straight up is probably an over payment.

I hope you are joking.

[bigegypt0417]

I would never make that trade. Hernandez alone is worth at least Cole. IN fact Hernandez for Cole straight up is probably an over payment.

I hope you are joking.

Same here.

[andyb]

Cole is better, though EDmuch's point is not that far off. Cesar has 3 years of control left and Cole has only 2. Cesar now has 2 season in a row of 3.3 WAR and something in the 2.5 range. Cole had a 4.5 season, then a bad 1.6 season and is rebounding to 3.5. In rough terms we are probably talking about a 4 WAR player for 2 years versus a 3 WAR player for 3 years. And the offensive player is probably less likely to get hurt.

Now the tools side of the coin suggests Cole is probably a little better than his past results, meaning there could be a 5+ WAR season or two in him. And a tools analysis on Cesar suggests that he is only average defensively and the stats last year may have been misleading. So his true talent level may be 2.0-2.5 WAR - a starter but not even an above average starter.

Cesar probably does not get you Cole. But Cesar plus a pitcher like Pivetta and a minor random prospect might. Pittsburgh I am pretty sure would want a major league ready pitcher as part of any deal.

[EDmuch]

I just don't like Cole. Too inconsistent. Hernandez is probably our best trading chip to get a good pitcher. I just do not want to see him wasted on Cole while Cole struggles to prove whether he can be a consistent quality starter. Wherever we package Cesar, I want to make sure of what we are getting back.

[andyb]

I am completely on board with the idea of trading Cesar for a pitcher. As I said, he does have value with 3 years of control. He is more valuable than Galvis because he is a little better and has 3 years versus one of control.

So a trade of Hernandez this winter makes sense even if Kingery is not ready yet. We'll still have Galvis. Kingery can be given a chance to win a job at the beginning of the season or during the season with Galvis there to play until that happens.

[phillychuck]

Juan, Juan... we hardly knew ye!

Phillies have traded RHP Juan Nicasio to the St. Louis Cardinals for INF Eliezer Alvarez.

11:30 AM - 6 Sep 2017

Alvarez is a 22-year old Dominican middle infielder, who spent most of this season in AA.

Just catching up...don't like the return. Alvarez is predominantly a 2B who has struggled adjusting to A-ball with a .702 OPS in the Texas League, which is usually a good league for hitters. We don't need more 2Bs.

[andyb]

Well there is a possibility we part ways with Galvis and Hernandez this winter. And maybe Valentin is not coming back all the way. Depth is not the worst thing. Helps in trades too.

Hard to criticize something for nothing even if we'd rather have a pitcher.