2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[Philsmania]

It is really not rocket science to suggest that most young pitchers struggle for a year or two in the majors. This says nothing however about the central point that all of our young pitchers beyond Nola look like back of the rotation candidates or AAAA pitchers. The pitchers with good stuff and multiple quality pitches and superior command are the ones who end up as number three starters or better consistently. Beyond Nola we just don't have any more of those relatively sure things in the upper minors.

Which leads to the conclusion that we need to add a veteran pitcher or two this offseason and at least one of them should be a number three starter or better. And we have about $150 million of payroll room to play with. I'd rather use that money to get the starter than decent prospects. Letting that money go unused would be a waste of an important resource.

In a similar vein, one of the frequently repeated criticisms of the pharm is that that in terms of position players, there was an impressive depth of future ML players but few who looked like stars, though Hoskins is showing signs of possibly being something more. Likewise, with the pitching at the upper levels, we have quite a few 3-5 starters but no bona fide 1-2 prospects, aside from maybe Nola.

[Austinfan]

With pitching prospects, it's either 1st rd or patience, that is, a lot of the guys taken outside the first round (i.e. all our pitching prospects) often don't make it until 25-27.
But you only get one first rd pick a year, and we've used the last three on OFs.
LA is the other alternative and we have a group coming up in Kilome, Sanchez, Medina, Morales who have first class arms.

Whether or not we sign a big money FA pitcher this year is irrelevant to the future of this franchise, because that pitcher is unlikely to be a #2 in 2020 at 34 years old, maybe not a #3..
It is the pitchers already in the system, and maybe a college pitcher we draft this summer, that will determine how good this team becomes.
Which is why I don't care who we sign this summer.

[allentown]

2020 is not the earliest year we should be focusing upon.

[California_Dreamin]

Going to be really hard for the Phils to keep their 1.1 draft status if you look at the schedules going forward. While I guess a team like the Reds could collapse completely, they are not playing like they will so it seems realistic to suggest that there are only 3 candidates for the top pick, the Phils, Giants and White Sox. Of the three, based on home/road schedules the Phils have the easiest schedule, to wit:

Phils have 23 games left, 16 at home, 7 on the road. In fact, after they finish this 4 games series in DC, the Phils play 16 of their final 19 at home, with only a 3 game series in Atlanta on the road. And if they can keep a microphone away from Cameron Rupp before they go to Atlanta they have a chance of winning 1-2 games there.

Giants have 20 games left, 11 at home and 9 on the road. Interestingly they have a 3 game series in Chicago against the ChiSox so someone will have to win and lose those games...sort of a he loves me, he loves me not scenario for the Phils.

White Sox have 24 games left, 11 at home and 13 on the road.

Based on the lineups they are playing it appears to me that only the Sox have thrown in the towel on the season. The Phils, with their youth, are playing well and have been for the last 50 games [24-26 record.] I could see them easily win 10 games or so over the final 23.

The Giants are still pitching Bumgarner and Cueto and seem to have to inclination to fold up the tent. The White Sox, on the other hand, have rid themselves of almost every veteran they had and seem quite content to lose out the year.

If I had to guess, based on what has happened recently, my guess is that the Phils will finish 3rd and both the White Sox and Giants will overtake them in the end.

[Austinfan]

We're not going to be competitive next year, .500 would be a worthy goal.
2019, maybe, but it depends on no backsliding (see Franco) or rash of injuries.
By 2020 the team will have the depth and experience to play with the big boys.

[EastFallowfield]

You gotta think the Rupp motivation factor will probably still be in effect for the rest of the season at least. Braves sweep us from here until he's gone.

[California_Dreamin]

EF...not sure they sweep but he definitely got their attention and woke them up and they will not lay down when the Phils come to town. The Braves have some proud veterans [Freeman, Kemp, Markakis, couple of starting pitchers] and Rupp was foolish to say what he did, even if up to that point, he might have been correct.

I have noticed that the Mets NEVER bad mouth the Phillies even though they own the Phils as the Phightins had owned the Braves. It simply serves no purpose.

[EastFallowfield]

That's probably why the 2007 Mets beat us out for the division title, that whole "team to beat" thing certainly backfired.

[Philsmania]

Going to be really hard for the Phils to keep their 1.1 draft status if you look at the schedules going forward. While I guess a team like the Reds could collapse completely, they are not playing like they will so it seems realistic to suggest that there are only 3 candidates for the top pick, the Phils, Giants and White Sox. Of the three, based on home/road schedules the Phils have the easiest schedule, to wit:

Phils have 23 games left, 16 at home, 7 on the road. In fact, after they finish this 4 games series in DC, the Phils play 16 of their final 19 at home, with only a 3 game series in Atlanta on the road. And if they can keep a microphone away from Cameron Rupp before they go to Atlanta they have a chance of winning 1-2 games there.

Giants have 20 games left, 11 at home and 9 on the road. Interestingly they have a 3 game series in Chicago against the ChiSox so someone will have to win and lose those games...sort of a he loves me, he loves me not scenario for the Phils.

White Sox have 24 games left, 11 at home and 13 on the road.

Based on the lineups they are playing it appears to me that only the Sox have thrown in the towel on the season. The Phils, with their youth, are playing well and have been for the last 50 games [24-26 record.] I could see them easily win 10 games or so over the final 23.

The Giants are still pitching Bumgarner and Cueto and seem to have to inclination to fold up the tent. The White Sox, on the other hand, have rid themselves of almost every veteran they had and seem quite content to lose out the year.

If I had to guess, based on what has happened recently, my guess is that the Phils will finish 3rd and both the White Sox and Giants will overtake them in the end.

The Tigers are only five games behind us in the Race to the Bottom and have the worst record in baseball over the last thirty games (8-22). The passing of Mike Illitch who always pushed for the Tigers to win now seems to have opened the door for a scorched earth rebuild there. So, if our youngsters fuel a strong finish, don't rule out us falling to fourth.

[andyb]

We're not going to be competitive next year, .500 would be a worthy goal.
2019, maybe, but it depends on no backsliding (see Franco) or rash of injuries.
By 2020 the team will have the depth and experience to play with the big boys

We are a lot closer to being competitive than you think. Add Machado and 2 pitchers for 2019 and one could easily see the team being competitive. You don't see it because you have this static view of the team can only be competitive with its own current prospects. That is a 2-dimensional view. We have money and prospect depth to trade. That is a 3-dimensional view. There is no reason 2019 should not be a competitive year. Teams with money have shorter rebuilding cycles than teams without money.

[bigegypt0417]

We're not going to be competitive next year, .500 would be a worthy goal.
2019, maybe, but it depends on no backsliding (see Franco) or rash of injuries.
By 2020 the team will have the depth and experience to play with the big boys

We are a lot closer to being competitive than you think. Add Machado and 2 pitchers for 2019 and one could easily see the team being competitive. You don't see it because you have this static view of the team can only be competitive with its own current prospects. That is a 2-dimensional view. We have money and prospect depth to trade. That is a 3-dimensional view. There is no reason 2019 should not be a competitive year. Teams with money have shorter rebuilding cycles than teams without money.

Agreed.

This idea of building all from within would mean we should not pay attention for a few more years...

[zambonir]

I mean, I'd watch the team as currently constituted (sans Galvis, with Kingery on the way) but I know I'm not gonna have to. I don't expect them to sign a pitcher to a 4-5 year deal this off-season unless the perfect thing presents itself, but I'd be surprised if they don't sign one starting pitcher to a three-year deal (with the other coming via trade or a one-year deal). And I still think they could sign a LF or 3B-capable power bat despite Hoskins and Williams' emergence.

Off-season trades will be about the major league team as much as the future now. And if the team is better than expected they could be buyers at the deadline. Either way they will be buyers soon enough, all this long-awaited depth is not just so these guys can end up on the Phillies, and that goes for the current crop of struggling young major league starters too. One of them may be the next J.A. Happ either way.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Correct, we will likely not be playoff competitive, but it is time to start improving our pitching. I would not spend big money on a middle of the road pitcher just to spend the money. I think it is more prudent to keep that money available, short term, to see what else would come available. I would much rather trade some of our excess prospects for a pitcher a team knows they can't keep.

[andyb]

One of them may be the next J.A. Happ either way

Looking at the actual Happ, I wonder if Toronto would want to shed his salary. They could probably use a youngish catcher. Rupp for Happ with the Phillies taking the larger salary off Toronto's hands? Would not be the worst "move the current chess pieces around" type move for the Phillies.

I still want a better pitcher on a long term deal, but we probably need two and the second can easily be an expensive pitcher like Hellickson or Buchholz or Happ from a team needing to shed a bit of salary.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Andy,

You're joking about Buchholz, right?

[andyb]

You're joking about Bucholtz, right?

No. I was referring to the type of a trade where we trade a prospect of little value for a pitcher that makes $10 million plus.

I never liked Buchholz as a player. But as a concept these trades are good in that the team uses money to acquire a veteran player with little more than money. Has the bonus of not tying one into a 3-5 year deal too.

The small window of players who fit this category are $10 million plus pitchers on teams with salary issues that are still half decent (2 WAR or 4.00 ERA types). Pitchers that are better than that cost real prospects. Pitchers that are worse than that are not worth getting.

Hopefully Klentak thinks of a creative way to flip Rupp and Galvis (and potentially Hernandez if Kingery continues to develop). They are wild card trade chips as 2nd division starters who are still young and inexpensive. That should have some value, especially to a salary limited club (the ones that need to trade the $10 million pitcher).

[Florida_Sunshine]

OK, same page. I actually prefer that over just spending money this year for an average older pitcher just because we have it. That could preclude us from a better pitcher that comes available next year. Or, a Machodo next year with a stud pitcher the following year.

I really like what has happened with the growth in our position players. Even though we may or may not have any all star studs, we can easily see the making of a great lineup 1-8, with depth in the system.

[andyb]

And I was looking at Happ making $13 million for a bad team with a 34-year-old catcher (Martin) where their top catching prospect is still in High A ball. A guy like Rupp could be useful to them as a backup or reasonable starter if Martin got hurt.

No idea if they are going to rebuild. They have the Tulo contract for a couple more years so that could be tough for a mid-payroll team.

[bkox]

Im really liking the idea of Williams/Herrera/Altherr OF next season.
Since the Al-Star Break he has as many HRs as Aaron Judge.

Phillies (Phillies)

[Austinfan]

Teams that turn it around quickly tend to have a core group of veterans, often coming off injuries, that bounce back.
This team doesn't have that kind of kick start back to contention, it's more like Houston or Chicago, where they had to build up the core.
Cubs, 61, 66, 73, 97, the big jump wasn't a big FA push, Fowler on a 1 year deal, Hammel signed as a FA after they traded him the previous July, Haren, July trade.
Houston, 56, 55, 51, 70, 86, 84, 100?, no big FA move
Nationals, 59, 59, 69, 80, 98, Werth was signed before the 2011 season, Edwin Jackson was their other "big signing."

FA acquisitions rarely move the needle because they usually underperform their new contracts, most are over 30 and getting paid for what they did, not what they're going to do.
It comes down to talent on the roster and smart trades - if you don't do that, you can't spend your way into contention, if you do that well, FA signings are icing on the cake.