2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

Austinfan 2017-09-06 21:36:37 UTC #923

Kingery was a 2nd rd pick, until this season, he underperformed for his draft position and age.

We don't need another gap hitter with limited OBP skills, we have Williams and Herrera.
If we're going to replace Hernandez with Kingery, we'll need a leadoff hitter. Hernandez is one of the better leadoff hitters in baseball. Hernandez had a .371 OBP last season and .359 this season.
Kingery has the skills to leadoff, if he doesn't develop into a leadoff hitter, we're better off keeping Hernandez and trading Kingery.
I never liked Rollins as a leadoff hitter, he should have been batting 6th or 7th.

gmwannabe 2017-09-06 21:38:46 UTC #924

don't forget the international allocation money too. That should be included.
gm

bigegypt0417 2017-09-06 21:42:55 UTC #925

And Hernandez?

What makes you think Kingery won't develop as a lead off hitter?

So basically a younger and faster Kingery who can easily replicate the 8 home runs that CH hit this season is the guy we move?

I love how you pretend that Hernandez isn't exactly the same type of player...what does the fact that he was a second round pick have to do with the present conversation?

Austinfan 2017-09-06 22:08:09 UTC #926

You miss my point, IF Kingery won't commit to improving his plate discipline, he's not suited to be a leadoff hitter (and like I said, Rollins wasn't very good, only 3 seasons with OBP > .340 and none > .350).
We have an excellent leadoff hitter in his prime who is also a solid 2B, it doesn't make sense to move him if we don't have a replacement leadoff hitter.
Now given Kingery's intangibles, I think he'll figure that out, but it wouldn't hurt him to start the season in Lehigh next year and focus on getting on base.
I hope he does, because I could see a lineup with Kingery/Crawford/Altherr/Hoskins giving Herrera and Williams a lot of guys to drive in.
Though I'd like to see Herrera stop swinging at bad pitches, he showed last year, in the first half, that he's capable of working ABs. In that case, you could switch Herrera and Altherr, depending on the pitcher.

andyb 2017-09-06 22:10:30 UTC #927

Kingery never really underperformed. He was given aggressive assignments that he handled. Not smoothly. With adjustment periods, but he handled it. More than half of 2nd round picks do not make it. The ones that play well early often do not get aggressive assignments.

Was Kingery a top 100 prospect before this year? Probably not. But the majority of prospect people had him in our top 10-12 prospects on a list that was very deep. That is not underperforming.

bigegypt0417 2017-09-06 22:19:51 UTC #928

You set a benchmark of a 350 OBP and his combined OBP this year is 359.

Kingery is essentially a 23 year old with a similar skillset and more power and speed.

You continue to attempt and shift the conversation but your benchmark is random and one that kingery has attained at the highest levels of the minors.

bkox 2017-09-06 22:29:22 UTC #929

2 players have pitched exactly 1 inning for the phillies and gotten a win.
Rick Surhoff in 1985
and....
Wilson Valdez in 2011

zambonir 2017-09-07 01:17:42 UTC #930

I'm sure we'll hear about this but I am assuming the Phillies did have to put Nicasio on revocable waivers and St. Louis claimed him. There wouldn't have been that many teams ahead of them, let alone teams that needed/wanted to add a player they couldn't keep or use in the playoffs (and no teams with a worse record than STL are contending). Blockers/bluffers would have been scared away as this point.

If the claim was yesterday I guess that means today the Cards would have been behind the Brewers for a claim. But they are both chasing the Cubs as much as the WC.

bkox 2017-09-07 01:27:53 UTC #931

schillingfan 2017-09-07 02:02:54 UTC #932

You focus too much on defined roles: lead off hitter' #2 or 3 starter, etc. The perfect is the enemy of the good. Go with the best 2B, you'll find him a place in the batting order. As you admit, we won a World Series with JRoll batting lead off.

zambonir 2017-09-07 02:26:57 UTC #933

One of Galvis or Hernandez is getting traded. It makes sense that it might be Hernandez because his salary and controllabilty get you more (and he's a more productive player however you wanna measure it). It also makes more sense because then once Kingery comes up you can trade Galvis at the deadline. The X factor is Franco. Joseph won't be on the opening day roster. They can hang on to either Franco or Joseph as a "project" or bench player but not both.

schooldoc 2017-09-07 03:12:35 UTC #934

Who says no?

Gerrit Cole for Cesar, Kilome & C.Randolph

If the Phillies say no, what would you offer?

zambonir 2017-09-07 03:27:05 UTC #935

The Philly Voice article bkox posted really says it all. There's really no reason to sweat this stuff.

_In Washington last season, shortstop prospect Trea Turner make 44 starts in center field, 25 at second base, and zero at shortstop with Danny Espinosa entrenched in Washington's infield. In 2017, after Espinosa was traded over the winter, Turner has started all 73 of his games at shortstop.

In Chicago this season, former first round pick Ian Happ, who had played 107 of his 137 minor league games at second base, has made 24 starts at second and 34 starts in center field for the Cubs as a rookie.

Also in Chicago this season: Javier Baez has spent the last month as the Cubs everyday shortstop. Last season the former shortstop prospect worked as a super utility man for the World Series champs, starting 38 games at second, 36 at third, 21 at short, and two at first base.

Austinfan 2017-09-07 04:00:35 UTC #936

The young pitchers are really frustrating this season, so I thought I'd do a quick review of top pitchers and see if many struggled:

Even the 1st rd picks have a range from 21-25 before they're established SPs, some hit the ground running, others need years of development
The later round picks range from 23-27, since the overpowering FBs go in the 1st rd, these are self-selected for either lesser velocity or serious mechanical flaws and need more time to develop
Some pitchers struggle for a couple years in the majors, others "emerge" after a couple years in AAA ball.
So I wouldn't worry too much about this season's performance, though if they're not ready by the end of next year the odds are probably against most of them.

Kershaw - 20, 4.26/4.08; 21, 2.79/3.08
Bumgarner - 21, 3.00/3.66
Nola - 22, 3.59/4.04
C Martinez - 22, 4.03/3.18
Hamels - 22, 4.08/3.98
Pineda - 22, 3.74/3.42
Cole - 22, 3.22/2.91
Wacha - 22, 2.78/2.92

23
Sale - cameo at 22, hit the ground running at 23
Greinke - 20, 3.97/4.70; 21, 5.80/4.49; back to the minors, 23, 3.69/3.74
Verlander - 23, 3.63/4.35
Fulmer - 23, 3.06/3.76 [1s]

24
Cueto - 22, 4.81/4.00; 23, 4.41/4.69; 24, 3.64/3.97
Quintana - 23, 3.76/4.23; 24, 3.51/3.82
G Gonzalez - 23, 5.75/4.47; 24, 3.32/3.78 [1s]
Price - 23, 4.42/4.59; 24, 2.72/3.42
Strasburg - 24, 3.16/2.82

25
Scherzer - 25, 4.12/3.87
Pakton - 25, 3.04/3.28
Bauer - 23, 4.18/4.01; 24, 4.55/4.33; 25, 4.26/3.99
Pomeranz - 23, 4.93/4.81; 25, 2.35/3.87
Leake - 22, 4.23/4.68; 23, 3.86/4.22; 24, 4.58/4.42; 25. 3.37/4.04.
Santana - 22, 4.64/4.43; 23, 4.28/4.29; 24, 5.76/5.13; 25, 3.49/3.30
Stroman - 25, 4.37/3.71

Lester - 23, 4.57/5.24; 24, 3.21/3.64 [2nd rd]
Corbin - 23, 4.54/4.00; 24, 3.41/3.43 [2nd rd]
Nelson - 25, 4.11/4.10; 26, 4.67/5.12, 27, 3.59/3.05 [2nd rd]
Happ - 26, 2.93/4.43 [3rd rd]
Kluber - 26, 5.12 ERA/4.69 FIP; 27, 3.85/3.30 [4th rd]
Arrieta - 24, 4.66/4.76; 25, 5.05/5.34; 26, 6.20/4.05; 28, 2.53/2.66 [5th rd]
Samardzija - 24 (RP) 7.55/5.90; 26 (RP) , 2.97/3.66; 27, 3.81/3.55 [5th rd]
Archer - 24, 3.22/4.07 [5th rd]
Keuchel - 24, 5.27/5.74; 25. 5.15/4.25; 26, 2.93/3.21 [7th rd]
Hendricks - 24, 2.46/3.32 [8th rd]
DeGrom - 26, 2.69/2.67 [9th rd]
Ray - 23, 3.52/3.53 [12th rd]
McHugh - 27, 2.73/3.11 (18th rd]
Roark - 27, [25th rd]
Davies - 23, 3.97/3.89 [26th rd]
Carrasco - a couple cameos, 24, 4.62/4.28; 27, 2.55/2.44

DurhamBull 2017-09-07 12:11:57 UTC #937

zambonir:

The Philly Voice article bkox posted really says it all. There's really no reason to sweat this stuff.

_In Washington last season, shortstop prospect Trea Turner make 44 starts in center field, 25 at second base, and zero at shortstop with Danny Espinosa entrenched in Washington's infield. In 2017, after Espinosa was traded over the winter, Turner has started all 73 of his games at shortstop.

In Chicago this season, former first round pick Ian Happ, who had played 107 of his 137 minor league games at second base, has made 24 starts at second and 34 starts in center field for the Cubs as a rookie.

Also in Chicago this season: Javier Baez has spent the last month as the Cubs everyday shortstop. Last season the former shortstop prospect worked as a super utility man for the World Series champs, starting 38 games at second, 36 at third, 21 at short, and two at first base.

I also found interesting the fact that one of the handful of regular players who has worse offensive stats than Franco over the past couple of seasons is...Freddy Galvis. Ouch.

LoneStarPhan 2017-09-07 13:05:21 UTC #938

Galvis does many things well, but he has consistently had an OBP well below what I consider a minimum for a regular positon player. For me, that minimum is .300, and even that is below what I would like to see. Now of course, I realize that a team may not always be able to avoid having players playing regularly that fall below that, but I certainly would be looking to improve at any position being manned by a player falling below that level.

Galvis is currently over the .300 OBP and his 2015 season was .302, but his career OBP is .286

allentown 2017-09-07 13:38:57 UTC #939

I cast my vote against evaluating players, especially young or old players, based upon career stats. There is an arc in career performance and where they are now is what matters. Also the direction in which the recent performance arrow is pointed. I think the 'current' probably peak performance, Galvis is about a .300 OPS player. He was lower last year, but he was also adjusting to an increased loft swing. The most significant trend, IMHO, is his progression in OPS over the past 4 seasons: .546, .645. .673, .700. The arrow is still upward, but I suspect this year (maybe a small improvement to a peak next season) will prove to be his peak offensive season. This year's stats seem ok for a very good defensive SS. I wouldn't expect him to hit as well as bat-first 3B, like Franco. It is Franco who is the huge disappointment.

Austinfan 2017-09-07 14:42:07 UTC #940

Galvis is close to his max, he's fixed his swing, taken a better approach, but he's not Herrera, he doesn't have the ability to hit his way through his lack of vision.
I think Galvis, Joseph and Franco show the important of plate discipline and pitch recognition, and while some of it can be taught, some is innate.
I think it's becoming a much bigger priority in scouting for this organization the last couple years.

Guys who can improve are hitters like Williams, who shows he can adjust to a breaking ball, he just needs to focus, lay off high FBs and don't chase, but given his age and improvement, I think there's a lot of upside lleft.
Altherr made that transitiion and saved his career.
Rupp's problem comes down to hitting, I don't know why he goes through his bad streaks, he's more focused this year but misses too many FBs in the hit zone. I'd send him to an eye doctor.
Alfaro is a real question mark, great raw talent but I don't know if he'll ever hit ML pitching on a regular basis (forget the SSS, pitchers are already learning to nibble with him AB)
Herrera can just plain hit, as he showed last year, when he decides to become a more disciplined hitter, he'll be a perennial Allstar.
Hoskins, "love you just the way you are."

andyb 2017-09-07 15:08:48 UTC #941

It is really not rocket science to suggest that most young pitchers struggle for a year or two in the majors. This says nothing however about the central point that all of our young pitchers beyond Nola look like back of the rotation candidates or AAAA pitchers. The pitchers with good stuff and multiple quality pitches and superior command are the ones who end up as number three starters or better consistently. Beyond Nola we just don't have any more of those relatively sure things in the upper minors.

Which leads to the conclusion that we need to add a veteran pitcher or two this offseason and at least one of them should be a number three starter or better. And we have about $150 million of payroll room to play with. I'd rather use that money to get the starter than decent prospects. Letting that money go unused would be a waste of an important resource.

California_Dreamin 2017-09-07 15:45:02 UTC #942

Interesting note here...Phils are considered to have a deep and talented pharm system, ranking anywhere from, oh say, #6-#9 or so. Yet, Gomez is ranked #17, Mills #22 and Alvarez is already there at #26. I find this very impressive as all three were acquired in the last two months by Klentak.

I do believe he is growing into the job.