2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[Austinfan]

While IP may decline slightly due to more bullpen use, it also means you should shift resources from SPs to the bullpen.
However, IP does enter into valuation, since a pitcher who averages an extra IP per start has 10-20% more value, all else held equal.

[allentown]

Klentak and Middleton don't care about the "good of the game."
But Middleton won't undercut his GM, and Klentak is relying on analytics (isn't that what you wanted?).
So he'll stick to his reservation prices.

I think MacPhail is a 'good of the game' type.

[bigegypt0417]

Klentak and Middleton don't care about the "good of the game."
But Middleton won't undercut his GM, and Klentak is relying on analytics (isn't that what you wanted?).
So he'll stick to his reservation prices.

I think MacPhail is a 'good of the game' type.

Agreed.

It also helps to give these deals every now and again so you can be in the market for more attractive players.

Also...this isn't about "good of the game". This about market value and every team pays for lost years.

[Austinfan]

The only thing overspending gets you is agents trying to get you to overspend again.

I doubt there's "good will" value in overspending, Boras has a lot of clients, he's not going to violate his fiduciary duty by steering one to a lower cost deal because you overpaid for another.

And agents know who has the money and will to spend, Klentak has spent plenty of money the last two years, he just hasn't spent on a big money, long-term deal. $60M last year, and more this offseason.

First rule of negotiations is don't bid against yourself.

The best reputation Klentak can have is as a guy who'll pay market value but not overpay, so agents will come to him with real offers, but won't try to play him for a fool.

[andyb]

Klentak overpaid estimates for his first 3 free agent signings. He overpaid for quailty but he still overpaid.

Different budgets require different value formulations. Spending $0 gets you 0 WAR. Having $100 million as opposed to $25 million in potential spending will lead to very different offers to free agents. The Red Sox can offer JD Martinez $110 million while 25 teams cannot.

[bigegypt0417]

The best reputation Klentak can have is as a guy who'll pay market value but not overpay, so agents will come to him with real offers, but won't try to play him for a fool.

So basically you want him to have the reputation of always being the guy who no one talks to?

Clichés aside, you can't build a winning team with your model.

[Austinfan]

No one builds a winning team around overpriced free agents.

You build a team around a solid core of young players, and pay for marginal upgrades when you're competitive.
Most free agents are minor acquisitions to patch until a young player is ready.
Even the Dodgers had to let Grienke walk and dump a few other salaries.

The biggest reason teams overpay are GMs who lack job security and want to keep their nice salary for another year or two by spending their owners' money. GMs in it for the long haul have to balance this season v 3-4 years down the road.

[andyb]

And is anyone here actually saying you should build a team solely through free agents? A complementary player or two on top of a young roster is a very different thing.

[flyers19rw]

The phans have been crying for the Phillies to use analytics for years. Now they have it. By using it they have decided that Arietta doesn't have the value that Boras says that he has and for that the FO is getting creamed. I don't get this.
All of the figures for Arietta have indicated that he has been in decline. Two years ago there were scouts that noting that his FB had lost serious velocity and his IP was dropping. This continued last year. There were questions about him having arm issues. Now what is there about this situation that would indicate that he is worth more than a two year plus club options situation? If he was worth more than what the Phillies have offered, why wouldn't another team step up and grab him?

[andyb]

I would not put too much into Arrieta's innings. He had a hamstring injury in 2017 in September that cost him 2 starts and led to a couple other short outings. He was fine in the playoffs. More than anything though the Cubs are an analytics team and these types of teams are buying into the shorter start theory of not going through a lineup 3 times that often. Briefly, everybody's innings are down. A 180 IP starter is the new 200 IP equivalent. 6-man rotations and use of the 10-day DL may decrease this further. Top starters used to start 33 games. Now it will be more like 30.

All these things are also factored into the price for Arrieta. This is why he might cost $20 million versus $30 million.

[bigegypt0417]

No one builds a winning team around overpriced free agents.

No one is saying that.

No one.

[zambonir]

Well, until Arrieta signs we can't really say the Phillies were smart to not sign him. Or to sign him.

Corcoran: Why we shouldn’t be surprised Jake Arrieta is...

[allentown]

I do not question that Arrieta isn't worth what Boras says he's worth. i doubt even Boras thinks he's worth that. Darvish was the guy to chase. There were about 5 FA pitchers worth getting. We need to get one of them.

We are trying to use analytics a lot more. It remains to be seen whether or not we are correctly using analytics. All teams use stats. The Phillies were simply just about the last of the old guard who used the wrong, back of the baseball card, stats. BA and RBIs just aren't the key stats to be using. Our last draft was heavily influenced by our stats department. We'll see, but I'm not impressed to date.

[flyers19rw]

I hear you but I do not accept the concept that the present Phillies organization is or should be compared to the former Giles/Montgomery one. We'll see this coming off season. I believe that no team will offer a better contract to Machado and or Harper than the Phillies will. These guys may not sign here due to taxes or the fact that they don't see the club as a viable WS contender but I doubt if it contract term or money.

[zambonir]

Well, we can sit here and say the Phillies should have outbid the Cubs (whether for AAA or years) but I don't know that it's true, or that it would have gotten him to come here.

The Twins have seemingly leaked their supposed reservations about all the pitchers. Call it posturing but it's also possible the Phillies feel the same way.

Minnesota isn’t enamored of Lynn’s statistical profile beyond his ERA, while Neal spoke to a scout who noted that Cobb’s changeup simply isn’t the same as it was prior to Tommy John surgery. The Twins would potentially jump into the Arrieta fray if he were willing to take a short-term deal, though that assuredly holds true of several clubs.

How does Logan Morrison fit in Twins lineup? Have they finished adding players?

[tom81]

Eflin has a really low K rate. That is why he profiles as a back end starter at best.

Eflin has “had” a really low K rate but that does not necessarily mean he will have a really low K rate going forward. Did you watch him pitch the other day and see his 95 mph 4 seamer on the outside corner for the K. He didn’t have that pitch before and as Kruk says in the video he was just a sinker ball pitcher before. This pitch may not only generate more K’s in itself but also set up his other pitches to generate K’s.

Eflin strikes out Mullins

[andyb]

In an interesting contrast to the Carlos Santana signing, Logan Morrison signs a heavily discounted deal with the Twins. Santana has a far better and more consistent track record, but the reality is that they are players with similar skillsets (slow 1B with power and patience) and Morrison did have the better year last year (868 vs 818 OPS, 3.6 vs 3.4 WAR).

Morrison signed for 1 year and $6.5 million that can escalate to 2/$16.5 million if he gets all the performance bonuses.

Hard to say that the Phillies did not pay above market to get the safer bet. But it is also true that the Twins got a real bargain here and a player that is 2 years younger than Santana. I would guess there is like a 30% chance Morrison is better this year than Santana for one quarter the price (Santana's deal is front-loaded).

[zambonir]

Yeah, I wouldn't have minded Morrison but Santana has been much better, overall, and much more OBP-minded his whole career, even though he is older. If I was a GM I wouldn't want to pay big money to someone who put up Freddy Galvis offense as recently as 2015 either. So the question is if Morrison can keep doing what he did last year, based on changing his approach. And obviously nobody was willing to answer that question "yes" with a bigger/longer deal.

And Santana is also a switch-hitter.

Of course who even thought the Phillies needed a 1B? Pre-Santana I thought Morrison would have been a good, if luxurious, 1B/LF bench piece, though not a platoon match for Williams.

[andyb]

Lance Lynn rumors starting to heat up alongside the Arrieta rumors.

Phillies Have Had Recent Contact With Lance Lynn

Note the article is wrong when it implies the Phillies would lose another $500K for signing Lynn (or Arrieta). We would lose our next highest draft pick (3rd) but not the international pool which is a 1-time thing.

[zambonir]

Jon Morosi (jonmorosi)

So what, they would lose the 4th-rounder too? As unlikely as this does seem, if there is any truth to it, that certainly suggests they intend to get one.