2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[andyb]

Just about every other long-term deal for an over 30 SP has been a disaster, Lester, et al.

But they aren't all disasters. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay worked out pretty well even with zeroes in their final years. Lester has earned over 9 WAR in 3 years. Grienke over 8 WAR in 2 years. Not exactly a disaster yet either. The reality is about half of the deals for older pitchers are decent with the downside usually being that you pay more than $10 million per WAR which is actually not a disaster for a team with money that is not spending it.

Nobody is arguing to overpay for Arrieta. But if a guy was looking at 6/150 and now could be signed for 4/90 or 5/100 then the team should really think about it. If the price per expected WAR comes down to $7 or $8 million then the probability of the contract being a decent one increases.

Quality matters and Arrieta is a quality pitcher. And if he is a total failure we still have all those young pitchers you love.

[zambonir]

And it's wise for the Phillies to avoid one of those five-six year deals. But WAR-per-dollar is not the be-all and end-all of free agent contracts. Value comes from a lot of other places, including short-term needs, marketing, attendance. And if the Phillies like Arrieta that means the analytics and coaching staff has a plan for him, much like the Astros did for Verlander.

I just hope Thompson, Lively, Eflin and even Eshelman and Anderson all pitch well enough (in either the bigs or AAA) to get traded for a pitcher in July (Archer, Duffy, even Stroman could be available then) of the off-season.

The Phillies can also afford Cobb or Lynn, right now it's still a game of chicken where those two pitchers are hoping to get more out of a team that misses on Arrieta, while the Phillies are hoping there aren't actually four teams seriously trying to sign those three guys.

And the trade market isn't done either.

[andyb]

All this talk about guys like Lively and Eflin and Thompson distracts us from the fact that the two guys we should really care about and pay attention to are Velasquez and Pivetta. They are the ones who have the stuff to be better than back end starters if they put things together. Long odds for either, but they are both really important.

[Austinfan]

A healthy Eflin has just as much upside as Pivetta and Velasquez.

And Eickhoff and Lively can be solid innings eaters, which has far more value than you want to admit, Eickhoff was worth 3.5 WAR in 2016, more than Arrieta last year or his probable value this season.

Paying Arrieta $100M for 5 years would be the height of stupidity.

Halladay was a trade.
Lee cost $109M/6 years, Phillies got 20.4 the first 3 years, 0.8 the rest of the contract. They got lucky, Lee outperformed anyone's expectations for three season.

Grienke has put up 8.3 WAR the first two seasons, now he's 34, and Arizona is on the hook for $138M the next four seasons. Think they still think it was a good deal as his FB craters? 92.5 in 2015, 90.6 in 2017 with the new gun measurement. How long can he do it with smoke and mirrors?

It's one thing to overpay to get 2-3 good seasons when you're one player from the WS, another when you're one player from .500.

[zambonir]

All this talk about guys like Lively and Eflin and Thompson distracts us from the fact that the two guys we should really care about and pay attention to are Velasquez and Pivetta. They are the ones who have the stuff to be better than back end starters if they put things together. Long odds for either, but they are both really important.

Well, I think that is a given. They need Eickhoff, Velasquez and Pivetta to be three of the four reliable starters and one of the two guys you mention to pan out as a #2. But it is Lively, Thompson or Eflin who gets bounced to Lehigh Valley if the Phillies acquire someone. And even if they do, one of those three guys ends up back in the rotation when there is an injury.

Had Klentak decided to sign one of of the mid-tier guys, we'd probably be done talking, rotation would be Nola, that free agent and Eickhoff, VV and Pivetta, even if the FA only turned out to be a #4 or #5.

Even as I type this, I think the Phillies are going to get someone. There's just no way, IMO, that they would have let all those other guys (Cashner, Vargas, even Tillman) get snapped up otherwise, because the $ cost was extremely low and it also would have been extremely easy to move on from them. If they were terrible you go back to the same young guys you were looking at now, and if they were good they'd also be flippable, one last time, if circumstances (either the team's performance or the young pitchers' health and performance) dictated that.

[zambonir]

Halladay was a trade.

Sort of. He was signed to a three-year contract with an option as a condition of the trade. Very favorable terms for the Phillies of course, as he was still under contract for one year (and cheaply!) before that deal kicked in, and the option had incentives that he never reached. He pitched well until he was 36 though.

I don't think the Phillies will sign Arrieta to a five-year deal, so why worry about it? A four-year deal is fine by me. They can afford the two dead years, if that is what happens, because unlike in 2012 there is no Howard, Utley, Rollins or Papelbon soaking up more payroll (and there's not even a Lee).

[tom81]

Y

A healthy Eflin has just as much upside as Pivetta and Velasquez.

This! 1st round pick who is finally healthy and is still young. He has good stuff and with a solid base he probably will get an uptick in velocity and maybe better command if he stays pain free. I’d much rather see him in the rotation than Cobb or Lynn. Those two, while solid, just don’t have the upside that Arrieta has so I don’t see the point going for them. A short term deal for Arrieta does make sense as he does have the potential for a bounce back season of 5+ WAR.

Even if we do sign Arrieta I think there is a chance you see Eflin as the fifth starter beating one of the other guys already on the team.

[andyb]

A healthy Eflin has just as much upside as Pivetta and Velasquez.

And Eickhoff and Lively can be solid innings eaters, which has far more value than you want to admit, Eickhoff was worth 3.5 WAR in 2016, more than Arrieta last year or his probable value this season.

Halladay was a trade.
Lee cost $109M/6 years, Phillies got 20.4 the first 3 years, 0.8 the rest of the contract. They got lucky, Lee outperformed anyone's expectations for three season.

Eflin has a really low K rate. That is why he profiles as a back end starter at best.
Halladay was signed to what amounted to a 4-year contract.. Same age roughly as Arrieta. That is what matters when you claim that old pitchers always fail. Lee also got a 5 year/120 million contract which would be over $30 million today.

Guys like Grienke and Lester are in the middle of contracts so we don't know the end result. We do know they were worth more than their contract in the early years.

All this is simply to say that your assertion that all these contracts to over-30 pitchers are bad is just plain wrong. They weren't. The data is mixed with some successes, some failures, and lots in the middle. The contracts are all done knowing the back end is going to be bad.

And with Arrieta if he comes at a 30% discount to the market because the market has changed in what may be a short term phenomenon, then he has an even better chance of being a contract that is worth it. WAR is still worth $9-$10 million because the calculation is largely based on available revenue. That may now rise a little more slowly but it will still rise.

The Phillies get 0 WAR from money they don't spend. They have one good starter now. They would get Arrieta for a discount. Sounds like something they should do.

[Austinfan]

Arrieta is not Halladay or Schilling.

There are a few pitchers/hitters who age well, but because one or two do so, you shouldn't project everyone to do so. That's why you have an analytics group, that tries to figure out how to identify outliers.

Grienke is a good bet to fall off the cliff this year or next year, he has less velocity than any of our "fringe" young pitchers - but shows the value of good secondary pitches.

The problem with these deal is the out years are really, really bad, which means the only way you can justify most of them is by getting to the WS, if they merely get you to 85 wins they're a waste of money.

If this free agent season shows anything, it's that teams have adjusted expected WAR downward, probably to take into account actual risk of nonperformance instead of overly optimistic projections.

[bigegypt0417]

Oh, Arrieta can probably scrap out a couple decent (#3 starter) seasons, but he's not looking for 3yr/$50M which is probably what he's actually worth (i.e. two 2-3 WAR seasons then a 1 WAR season at 34).

I don't understand why you type this is a bad thing?

A solid middle of the rotation starter will not sign for 16 million dollars. We gave Hellickson more than that and he was never as good as a #3.

[bigegypt0417]

Arrieta is not Halladay or Schilling.

There are a few pitchers/hitters who age well, but because one or two do so, you shouldn't project everyone to do so. That's why you have an analytics group, that tries to figure out how to identify outliers.

Grienke is a good bet to fall off the cliff this year or next year, he has less velocity than any of our "fringe" young pitchers - but shows the value of good secondary pitches.

The problem with these deal is the out years are really, really bad, which means the only way you can justify most of them is by getting to the WS, if they merely get you to 85 wins they're a waste of money.

If this free agent season shows anything, it's that teams have adjusted expected WAR downward, probably to take into account actual risk of nonperformance instead of overly optimistic projections.

You are trying to explain a rationale for a baseball economics that doesn't exist. Every single contract of any substance these days has wasted years in it. Whenever you're pushed you seem to feel like the most logical thing to do is add a standard that is either unrealistic or just made up. The Phillies can afford to sign arrieta and make a mistake and not be financially hamstrung by it. They are a large market team with a lot of money to spend.

Do you really think anyone is comparing a #3 to halladay and lee in terms of performance?

[andyb]

Arrieta is not Halladay or Schilling.

There are a few pitchers/hitters who age well, but because one or two do so, you shouldn't project everyone to do so. That's why you have an analytics group, that tries to figure out how to identify outliers.

Grienke is a good bet to fall off the cliff this year or next year, he has less velocity than any of our "fringe" young pitchers - but shows the value of good secondary pitches.

The problem with these deal is the out years are really, really bad, which means the only way you can justify most of them is by getting to the WS, if they merely get you to 85 wins they're a waste of money.

If this free agent season shows anything, it's that teams have adjusted expected WAR downward, probably to take into account actual risk of nonperformance instead of overly optimistic projections.

Arrieta does not need to be a Hall of Famer to be worth $20 million a year. You must not understand the word "discount". This was a pitcher projected to get $25-$30 million a year previously.

And to highlight Grienke. He IS a pitcher one would expect to age well. He has always had good velocity but it has never been central to his game. He has been a polished 4-pitch pitcher who successfully changes speeds on all his pitches. He was known to hit every single mph from 75 to 95 in his starts when he was in his early 20s. Is he going to be worth $30 million in the back years of his contract? Probably not. But he has been worth $35+ million per year in his early years and I imagine he is a good bet to be worth 2-3 WAR in the back years.

Just because you say every contract to a 30-something pitcher is bad does not make that true. The better pitchers (like Arrieta) tend to age fairly well. You completely missed the point of the article about the Giants the other day which suggested that early 30s players may be a new inefficiency in baseball simply because they are underpriced now (in free agent dollars and prospect cost to acquire).

[California_Dreamin]

To me this potential signing of Arrieta [I still believe he will be a Nat or Brewer, but probably the former] is all about semantics and if you know Boras you work within those semantics.

Boras wants a 5 year deal, Phils want to give him 3. Boras has never been the kind to just compromise in the middle so fine, lets make a contract that satisfies both parties...a 5/120 million deal that is greatly front loaded, say 90 million for the first 3 years, a player out after years 2-3 and a team option after year 4....something like 30, 30, 30, then 15 and 15.

If he pitches the way he thinks he will and the Phils hope, he will opt out after year 3 and the Phils will have in essence given him 3/90...more than Darvish AAV, and magically get him that over $100 million for Heyman to announce to world.

Look I am ambivalent about Arrieta though I would like him and still think he has something in the tank. People talk about his declining number of innings pitched..well, get used to it baseball wise, Madden was a proponent of the Dodger belief system and using a starter for 4-5 and then bullpen by committee. I hate it, like I hate the 13 man pitching staff and 8 man bullpen. But its here and I don't think its going away.

Heck, Arrieta left his last playoff game after 4 innings trailing 1-0. Gibson, Drysdale or Bunning would have challenged the manager to a dual had that happened during their time on the field.

[andyb]

Fangraphs on the free agent market:

Did We Get Free Agency All Wrong? | FanGraphs Baseball

Basically they say the top end has met expectations and the middle is getting hurt. I do think their crowdsourced numbers for the top were already a bit depressed compared to previous years. Creative opt-outs are providing value to players on front loaded deals that don't necessarily impact the total dollars of the contract.

FWIW the crowd-sourced number for Arrieta was $110 millin.

[allentown]

The problem with these deal is the out years are really, really bad, which means the only way you can justify most of them is by getting to the WS, if they merely get you to 85 wins they're a waste of money.

You can, with adequate cap space -- the condition in which the Phillies will be for at least 3-4 years, cram the money into the front years and have only a 3-4 year deal. The deals tend to be very long, because the players are looking for a total $X and the teams want to spread that out over extra dead years in order to stay under the cap while they are still competitive and have a lot of other big salaries. Big $ salaries are only a bad thing if they don't add value or prevent you, because of salary cap, for spending on other players, who would add more value. The Phillies aren't in that either/or situation, so the efficiency of WAR/$ isn't as significant now. This refusal to spend unless it is absolutely $ efficient, strikes me as simply more of the 'for the good of baseball' nonsense which drove Giles into the J.D. Drew fiasco. I am tired of our management being the primary foot soldiers in the commissioners' extended wars against player salaries and prospect bonuses. The teams that don't participate in this game have out-performed us. Our only reward from the commish are draft and international bonus rules which place us in the least favored position. We are the team bearing the added weight of large-market team restrictions, without spending like a large-market team. The rules assume that we will use our $ advantage to the upmost and other teams must be protected from us. Too bad we decided to unilaterally disarm.

[David_Criss]

Logan Morrison just signed a 2/16 deal and supposedly turned down a 2/20 from Cleveland earlier. At what point do Arrieta, Moustakis, Lynn, Cobb, Bautista, etc. realize that their agent has significantly overplayed his hand and they aren't going to get what they want and say I just want to play? None of these guys are hurting for money and I would hope they are going nuts sitting at home watching Spring Training games begin and knowing their former teams have moved on.

[California_Dreamin]

allentown is SOO correct on this! If there is one thing that has always driven me crazy about the Phillies, its their " we are team players in this league" attitude, as if that and a dollar don't still buy you a cup of coffee. He mentioned a particular situation, one that I admit I will never get over since it was soooooooooo organizational changing...the JD Drew situation in the summer of 1997.

The Phils were a sad sack team for most of '97 but any true Phillie phan saw that this was a team not without good young talent...Rolen, Estallela, Lieberthal, Schilling, Grace, Abreu, Beech, Bottalico and with a few additions like Drew, they appeared to have a promising future. In fact, at the July 31st trading deadline the talk ALL day was that the Phillies were primed to move ace reliever Ricky Bottalico to Seattle for a hot shot rookie outfielder named Jose Cruz Jr, a guy was having a very good season.

I remember waking up that morning and thinking, "maybe within weeks we will have a future outfield of Abreu, Cruz and Drew!" But the Phils lack of aggressiveness finally caused the Mariners to tire of waiting on the Phils and they traded Cruz to the White Sox for two relievers, future Phillie Mike Timlin being one of them.

And to make matters worse Giles and Monty kept spouting this "for the good of the game" crap whenever Drew's 10 million demand over 5 years was mentioned and they indicated privately that the league had informed them that they would be rewarded for their tough stand. I am still waiting for that reward....must have gotten lost in the mail.

Drew signed the following summer with St. Louis for 8 million over 5 years and had a good career. The Phils drafted and signed Pat Burrell, which would have only added to their stable of good young players. The Drew story was one of the 5 most foolish Phillie moves since I became a fan, it was unconscionable. Boras told the Phils before the draft...don't pick him unless you are prepared to pay him. They laughed and called him a "kid" and then had the audacity to send Lenny Dykstra out to recruit him. The foul mouthed Dykstra recruiting the deeply religious Drew.

Oh, that was guaranteed to go over well. To sum up...Middleton is sharp and I hope he is beginning to realize that the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox don't get punished by the league for thumbing their noses at the establishment, they get better.

And who knows? Maybe that long lost letter rewarding the Phils for their tough stance on Drew will finally make it to its correct address???

[flyers19rw]

To me this potential signing of Arrieta [I still believe he will be a Nat or Brewer, but probably the former] is all about semantics and if you know Boras you work within those semantics.

Perhaps Boras' ties with the Rangers might come into play and Arietta goes there. They have salary space to make the deal and a need for pitching.

[bigegypt0417]

Logan Morrison just signed a 2/16 deal and supposedly turned down a 2/20 from Cleveland earlier. At what point do Arrieta, Moustakis, Lynn, Cobb, Bautista, etc. realize that their agent has significantly overplayed his hand and they aren't going to get what they want and say I just want to play? None of these guys are hurting for money and I would hope they are going nuts sitting at home watching Spring Training games begin and knowing their former teams have moved on.

I would imagine part of this is the precedence of it and that can't be lost on agents or the MLBPA. If these guys start taking those deals it will have long term ramifications.

[Austinfan]

Klentak and Middleton don't care about the "good of the game."
But Middleton won't undercut his GM, and Klentak is relying on analytics (isn't that what you wanted?).
So he'll stick to his reservation prices.

One advantage to this stance is agents will stop trying to use the Phillies to set the market, and deal with Klentak on a more serious basis - i.e., only bring realistic demands so we don't miss out on FAs we actually have a shot to sign, chasing a will 'o wisp.

The Phillies didn't lowball Santana, Hunter or Neshak.
Which tells me Klentak is willing to spend, but only up to the value point dictated by the analytics.