2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[nycphils]

A couple initial guesses on what the Phillies will do:

Could see a one or two year deal for Sabathia - pitched well at 38 and age means short term deal and reasonable money $8-$15m per season. Could see them use the veteran staff teacher/leader argument too.

Could see dealing something limited such as Tocci and Joseph (Mets have Juan Legares in CF, could use young and cheap Cf/4th OF and Smith at 1B who is LH and struggled this year so a RH backup who is cheap and a fallback option should be useful) for Matt Harvey - he's 28, already had TJ and TOS but has one year at approx $10m before FA. Phils could resign if he's good, cut him loose if he's bad. Wild in his return from injury, but hit 96 on the gun again.

Would the Phils ever consider taking Grenke off the Dbacks hands? He's due $35m/year through '21 and will be 34 next year, but still pitching well. He takes up 1/3 of Dback payroll so they might consider moving him even though they are trying to win. What if they bought down $5-10m/year?

[bkox]

Would the Phils ever consider taking Grenke off the Dbacks hands

Greinke has a 15 team no-trade. Im guessing the Phils are on there for now. He would have to buy into the plan. PLus hes owed 35M in 20 and 21. I know its a looooong time out.. but if some of our young players are for real. Hoskins and such will be in their arb years and could be looking at 20M+ deals.

[Austinfan]

I don't see Klentak doing anything drastic this offseason.
He'll kick the tires on Dravish and Arrieta, but say goodnight when it gets to 5-6 years for guys with 2 years left on their arms.
If Lynn is available on a 3-4 year deal he'll overpay, but he won't accept out years.
Otherwise he'll look at older veterans on 1-2 year deals.

Klentak will look at RPs he can flip in July, because he has lots of young arms that could probably use a half season at Lehigh.
Otherwise forget free agency.

Where the action will be is trades, but that's wide open.
Galvis, Hernadez, Joseph, Rupp, one of the OFs (because he has 3 1st rd picks that will be ready by 2020-21).
Joseph will be a dump to an AL team for a prospect.
Rupp only if a veteran catcher is lined up to replace him.
Galvis/Hernandez is the right offer comes along.

Young pitcher(s) plus second tier prospects in a trade for an established starter.
Take on a bad contract to sweeten a deal.

It'll be interesting, but odds are what actually happens will be far from expectations.

[nycphils]

Not likely to get much if anything for Joseph (maybe can get a vet who'd be non tendered otherwise (like Harvey as I suggest), but won't be anything of substance. Alec Asher was dumped for cash - similar situation. Rupp is pretty close to this too, although maybe a bit better.

The market is saturated with 2B options, which makes it less likely to deal Cesar or if dealt that the return is great.

One of the OFs would fetch a good return.

[EDmuch]

We now have a great young outfield. We also have three first round picks who are not exactly burning up the minor leagues and are clearly at least 3 years away. So why would Klentak want to trade any of the current 3 starting outfielders? What he is afraid to put a team on the field that would actually be capable of winning games? What would the "good return" be? A young outfielder who can hit .290 ????? Ridiculous.

The thing Klentak has to do is figure out a way to get a good young pitcher in return for a package featuring Cesar Hernandez. Unfortunately there are only a couple of teams that need a second baseman, PIrates and Angels come to mind. Cesar's three years of control would be appealing to Tampa but they already have a bit of an established infield.

He may have to get a trade done for Galvis also because I doubt Freddy will sign up after 2018 if he is just used as a utility infielder next year. I think he sees himself as a starter.

So the big challenge will be what to do with Galvis and Hernandez.

[harrisburghusker]

I don't think you can make judgements on a young player based on how they performed in September...for example, the lineup that the Marlins sent out last night was a AAAA one at best and I can't picture Vance Worley is going to have too many starts left in his big league career.

With all that being said, the 2018 Phils are going to need to have good depth as insurance to protect against young players like Alfaro, Crawford, Williams and Lively who might experience a regression next year.

I would be on the hunt for a veteran 4th OF Melky Cabrera type who could give you 350 ABs and a veteran IF/PH bat off the bench like Todd Frazier who could give you 250 ABs and be that power presence off the bench.

if you're going to trade for a starting pitcher, be prepared to pay through the nose...a mid-season trade might be a better way to acquire a rotation piece

[nycphils]

I'm not advocating trading one of Altherr, Herrera or Williams - only responding to the notion that if done they'd fetch something real. Pretty obvious IMO.

I will say that while Herrera and Altherr seem much more likely to sustain their performance than Nick Williams. It has been almost 300 ABs so it isn't purely SSS, but I do think his performance still carries a fair amount of regression risk given his poor walk rates even with better discipline than expected in the bigs. I would consider including him in a deal for the right player - whomever that might be. With Quinn, Tocci and the ability to sign a FA like JD Martinez or a big prize like Harper in '19, and the ability to take on money for a guy like Stanton, there are other options in the OF if need be,

I see Quinn as either a significant piece of a deal - which I think is unlikely unless he can show health for a full season - or as a 4th OF who'd be really good in that role for the Phils next year. Could get 300 ABs, play all 3 OF spots and might help preserve his body for the season.

[Lawman]

Heyman has the Phillies possibly being interested in Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez. I don't see either of them.

Inside Baseball | Destinations For Top-25 Free Agents-To-Be

[nycphils]

Also would consider signing Jayson Werth as a 4th OF. An OF consisting of Williams/Herrera/Altherr with Werth and Quinn off the bench would be playoff caliber. With his age and injuries, not sure he's going to get a full starting shot anywhere.

[bkeich]

Would the Phils ever consider taking Grenke off the Dbacks hands? He's due $35m/year through '21 and will be 34 next year, but still pitching well. He takes up 1/3 of Dback payroll so they might consider moving him even though they are trying to win. What if they bought down $5-10m/year?

The DBacks would have to include their top 5 prospects to even consider such a deal. They are hosed by this contract, no reason to solve their problem for them. By 2020, 2021 Greinke might not even be a starter and he might be worse than Howard was with a 40% bigger contract.

[bkeich]

Also would consider signing Jayson Werth as a 4th OF. An OF consisting of Williams/Herrera/Altherr with Werth and Quinn off the bench would be playoff caliber. With his age and injuries, not sure he's going to get a full starting shot anywhere.

The only reason to even consider Werth would be that if his mom still looks good and makes the stands pretty. We have a slew of OF's that need evaluation, it is the one position that we almost certainly don't want to get a veteran to add to. At some point next year you either have to bring up Cozens and hope or get rid of him, Tocci isnt that far behind, etc. It is going to be hard to add many veterans to this teams position players unless we start trading / consolidating prospects.

[nycphils]

Cozens has at least 2 option years remaining, as does Tocci. No rush with either - Cozens is 23, Tocci 21.

[bkeich]

Yea, but having Cozens sit in AAA for another season without sniffing the ML may not be good. He needs to start progressing.

I had forgotten Tocci is so young, you are right

[bigegypt0417]

I could see the Phillies working out trades vs.. signing a free agent.

I think we'll see some additions through trading pieces to make room for younger pieces.

[harrisburghusker]

I completely disagree on Cozens, he absolutely needs more time in AAA, and if he shows improvement like Williams did this year, you can call him up. But at this point, which OF position is he going to play? Wait for Altherr to get hurt again?

An Iron Pig OF next year of Cozens, Quinn, Pullin and Tocci is going to be pretty salty, and maybe Cozens needs to dust off a 1B mitt.

Unless a bunch of guys regress or get hurt, I think we're poised to see a big break out year next season, which is why I think Klentak needs to add proven major leaguers as depth while this new core continues to grow and the vets could step in in case of injury or regression

[andyb]

The DBacks would have to include their top 5 prospects to even consider such a deal. They are hosed by this contract, no reason to solve their problem for them. By 2020, 2021 Greinke might not even be a starter and he might be worse than Howard was with a 40% bigger contract.

That is not a correct read of the situation. Yes the Diamondbacks have potential payroll issues down the road, but there is no way they would deal Grienke without getting a couple top 100 prospects back in the deal. Last year after an off year the price would be less, but Grienke has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. BR has him at 6.0 WAR (4th best in MLB). ERA of 2.99 in a relatively tough place to pitch. 1.9 BB/9, 9.7 K/9. Grienke has always been the type of pitcher that would age well since superior command coupled with multiple pitches (rather than relying on velocity) is his forte.

Last year I posted often that we should look into Grienke hoping for a discount price in prospects. Now since he has demonstrated the ability to be a number one starter again, the scarcity of those starters means the price will be high no matter what his contract is. Likely the Dbacks will buy it down a bit if they do trade him, but that would be to get a top 10 prospect in the game. Grienke is overpriced, but at the moment he is worth it (a 6 WAR season is worth about $50 million these days).

[bkeich]

I was really speaking towards the Phillies side of the deal, not the DBacks. The last thing the Phillies need now is a long term huge contract for a guy that may perform well now but will probably be awful at the end of the deal. That end of the deal in this case comes when we will need to start signing some of our currently young players and letting some of them walk. Having a $35M albatross in the equation at that time could be a disaster, it would derail this rebuild just as it was really kicking in hard (in fact really once it had already started paying off).

We can massively overpay for the next 1-2 years for guys but after that the budget is going to get tight again (hopefully). Hopefully we will add younger FA's around 2018 offseason and 2019 offseason to fill in the gaps we have (and can always add pitching, there is really no such thing as too much of that).

Grienke is overpriced, but at the moment he is worth it (a 6 WAR season is worth about $50 million these days).

But for the Phillies, the question is not 2018, it is 2019, 20, 21. And he will probably not be a 6 WAR pitcher than, maybe 3 WAR and declining. That just isnt worth the $35M (the paydown would probably be earlier money). Of course if they paid down $100M or so then anyone would take a deal, but assuming they only throw in $10-20M then you are buying an albatross. Great deal for a playoff team now, bad deal for a 2019-21 playoff team (maybe).

[fish]

I could see the Phillies working out trades vs.. signing a free agent.

I think we'll see some additions through trading pieces to make room for younger pieces.

That's what they should do at least. If they had to package Nick Williams to get a guy like Archer, then I think that CarGon is a nice guy to target for a rebound age 32 season. I like Cole too- but obviously it doesn't do much good to try to deal the Pirates outfielders for pitching.

[andyb]

But for the Phillies, the question is not 2018, it is 2019, 20, 21.

But the Phillies have zero salary issues for those years as well. Our whole roster is young. Nola will be well paid in a couple of years. Everybody else does not hit their 5th and 6th years (arbitration) till later (2022,2023 mostly). We have a base roster that will be under $100 million in payroll for the next 5-7 years. We could add three players totaling $100 million if we wanted to and stay under the luxury tax line.

People are underestimating how young this roster is. Contracts that pay the bulk of the money in 2018-2021 pose no problem even if there is waste at the end. Even when you get into 2022-2024 the team can stagger contracts to avoid any problem. If Grienke is only a 2 WAR pitcher near the end of the deal he'd still probably be one of our best 5 starters. Add Grienke and another pitcher like Lynn and this team is competitive next year potentially. Isn't that a goal worth contemplating if you could execute it without giving up any of our best prospects?

[zambonir]

Heyman basically admits he's just throwing stuff at the wall, but a player like CarGo does make sense. It will be a repeat of the Saunders deal except without handing him the starting job (I hope). Insurance for Williams - yeah, he could make the all-star team next year but he could also get sent back down, both things have been known to happen - who could also be flipped. And also insurance for Altherr - they are clearly not 100% certain about his durability, even though this year's injury was not like the other two.

In any case, the 4th OF will be someone on a guaranteed contract, whether he's a FA or a trade acquisition, a $4 million player or a $10 million player. Quinn or a minor league/AAAA guy 5th. '

Barring a bigger deal where they actually do replace or trade one of the incumbents, of course. But, it still does seem to be a year too early to consider that. Find out what they've got, the infield is the thing getting rebuilt this off-season.