2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[andyb]

I think you say you might sign two to make sure the agents continue to be interested. I really doubt we would sign two as it DOES make sense to reserve slots for young pitcher development. Interest in Lynn or Arrieta might be designed as pressure for both to lower their price a bit.

[gmwannabe]

if they are giving up their 2nd and 3rd round picks, does this signify that they might be going heavy into some higher priced latin talent this year?
gm

[zambonir]

Lynn just doesn't look very good to me (as the MLBTR post notes. A fastball pitcher whose velocity is down. Unless you think he gets it back as he returns to full-strength).

The thing is, Boras isn't likely to cave because he's afraid of a team picking Lynn over his guy. Maybe the reverse is true.

But it would also be a way to get these guys to sign. Maybe Lynn takes a three-year deal and Arrieta takes a four-year deal if they're both coming, because then you're trying to win this year for sure. Not saying it's a good idea but it's certainly a pitch.

[saycheese]

Don't they lose 500k of international signing bonus money as well as the draft picks?

[andyb]

Don't they lose 500k of international signing bonus money as well as the draft picks?

The $500K is only lost for your first signing, not subsequent signings.

[zambonir]

Also worth noting, the Nats would lose their 2nd, 5th and $1,000,000 if they sign one of these pitchers. Dodgers and Yankees too. Third and sixth if they've already signed one FA.

[andyb]

Plus pay a 30% penalty on the salary since they were a luxury tax payer last year and I think are already over this year. They probably can reset their rate if they do not re-sign Harper, but it is really expensive for them to get Arrieta. I know they have done some creative deferred compensation (the Scherzer 7/210 deal ended up at like $26 million AAV), but at some point they would lose money especially considering their TV deal dispute with the O's is in limbo.

[flyers19rw]

Lynn just doesn't look very good to me (as the MLBTR post notes. A fastball pitcher whose velocity is down. Unless you think he gets it back as he returns to full-strength).

Have to keep in mind that last season was his first one back after having TJ surgery. Doesn't it usually take until the second season for the velocity to return after the surgery?

[julio]

Andyb - Have you actually read the relevant language in the CBA on this, or are you basing your statement here on media reports? My read of the contract language is that it’s ambiguous, at best.

[zambonir]

Andyb - Have you actually read the relevant language in the CBA on this, or are you basing your statement here on media reports? My read of the contract language is that it’s ambiguous, at best.

I see what you are getting at. Does this section - 4/c/ii/C- need to explicitly restate that the int'l bonus pool is also forfeited for a second signing, or is it simply assumed from 4/c/i/ABC.

(C) Clubs That Sign More Than One Qualified Free Agent.
If a Club’s second-highest, third-highest or fifth-highest selection
is no longer available because it was forfeited pursuant to
subsection 4(c)(i) as a result of signing another Qualified Free
Agent, the Signing Club shall forfeit its next highest available
selection. By way of example, if a Club forfeited its secondround
selection and fifth-round selection for signing its first
Qualified Free Agent pursuant to subsection 4(c)(i)(B) above,
it shall forfeit its third-round selection and sixth-round selection
for signing its next Qualified Free Agent (assuming those
are its next highest selections not exempt from forfeiture).

http://www.mlbplayers.com/pdf9/5450407.pdf

Seems more than possible MLBTR is correct.

[andyb]

It has been reported that way from multiple sources. MLB.com:

MLB qualifying offer rules explained

"A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick."

BA also mentioned this in an article a few weeks ago along with a Matt Winkelman tweet.

[zambonir]

I read that FAQ too but it was clearly just summarizing the CBA, with the same lack of clarity. And while it's entirely possible Steve Adams got it wrong, he's conceivably no worse-informed than BA or Winkelman.

Should be easy enough to find out for sure though.

[julio]

Andyb - Have you actually read the relevant language in the CBA on this, or are you basing your statement here on media reports? My read of the contract language is that it’s ambiguous, at best.

I see what you are getting at. Does this section - 4/c/ii/C- need to explicitly restate that the int'l bonus pool is also forfeited for a second signing, or is it simply assumed from 4/c/i/ABC.

(C) Clubs That Sign More Than One Qualified Free Agent.
If a Club’s second-highest, third-highest or fifth-highest selection
is no longer available because it was forfeited pursuant to
subsection 4(c)(i) as a result of signing another Qualified Free
Agent, the Signing Club shall forfeit its next highest available
selection. By way of example, if a Club forfeited its secondround
selection and fifth-round selection for signing its first
Qualified Free Agent pursuant to subsection 4(c)(i)(B) above,
it shall forfeit its third-round selection and sixth-round selection
for signing its next Qualified Free Agent (assuming those
are its next highest selections not exempt from forfeiture).

See also the section immediatly following the above:

(iii) International Signing Bonus Pool amounts forfeited pursuant
to this subsection (4)(c) shall be reallocated equally among
the international Signing Bonus Pools among Clubs that did not
forfeit Pool space pursuant to this Section. If the amount of Signing
Bonus Pool space that a Club forfeits pursuant to subsection
4(c)(i) above exceeds the Club’s available Signing Bonus Pool
space in the next international signing period, the remaining forfeited
amount shall be deducted from the Club’s Signing Bonus
Pool in each subsequent international signing period until the full
amount has been deducted.

It's not certain, but if there's only a one-time hit to the International Signing Bonus Pool, it's not clear to me why there's a clause here about how to handle a club forfeiting more than its total available Signing Bonus Pool.

[zambonir]

Huh, yeah. 'Cause if I understand it correctly it's impossible to trade away enough of your int'l bonus pool to get below $1,000,000 (let alone $500,000).

[zambonir]

I think we have to assume Zolecki has it right.

Phillies patient in free-agent starter market

Second, both Lynn and Cobb rejected qualifying offers from the Cardinals and Rays, respectively. It means the Phillies would have to forfeit another top Draft pick -- they already lost one when they signed Carlos Santana in December -- plus $500,000 in international money to sign either of them.

[tom81]

At this point I think Lynn and Cobb will probably be happy to get a 1 year deal at close to the qualifying offer that they have turned down. A one year deal will let them try their hand at free agency next year when they might have cleared up some of the questions they have now. As to the draft pick and possible bonus pool loss for the acquiring team this will depress their value somewhat but I don’t think very much on a one year deal, especially to a team like the Phillies. My thought is that either one could be flipped in July to a contender for more value than a third round pick.

I still think Arrieta can get more but I doubt he can get a 5 year deal anywhere close to what Darvish got. I think he might end up settling for a front loaded 3-4 year deal with opt outs similar to the one Cespedes initially signed with the Mets.

It is conceivable that we could get one or two of them under these circumstances, wierd offseason.

[andyb]

I guess we'll figure out the compensation for sure if a signing happens. It should not be a dramatic sea change from this year however if they trade for allocations (with 6 teams still under penalty the price is likely to again be modest). We have been reported to have traded for about $7 million in pool this year. Even with a $1 million penalty (and if that affects the 75% you can trade for), the team can still spend about $6.5 million if they trade for the max. Maybe a bit more if all pools rise a bit with some revenue inflation formula.

There would be more pressure next year to trade for the max than this year, especially since they have been linked to 2 high priced arms and that Venezuelan SS already.

The compensation does not bother me too much if it goes for a higher quality signing (Arrieta as opposed to Lynn).

[fish]

But doesn't it go one level deeper? From what I understand, compensation in draft picks and bonus pool only kicks in for a contract over 50 million. If that's right, the market sure seems like it's waiting for one of those guys to give in and take 49 million. I wouldn't give more than that to Cobb. and I think Lynn is probably a 60 million guy, which is close enough to make it hard to pony up to go over 50 on him.

edit...i'm wrong, that $50 million number has to do with revenue sharing/receiving clubs. Doesn't seem to impact the Phillies.

[Austinfan]

Reading the Zolecki article, you wonder if either is worth the effort of signing.
If their ERA regresses to their FIP, they're #4/#5 guys, and we have plenty of those types.
Plus their limited ability to miss bats sounds awfully like Lively/Eshelman/Thompson.
Now they could bounce back further, but at 30 or so, they could also fall off the cliff in a year or two.

While a few elite pitchers stay effective to 32, and a few outliers to 34-35, most fall off after age 30.

[tom81]

I think Klentak is using Ervin Santana in March 2014 as his guidepost, and I think is is a good comp. Santana was coming off a 2.5 FanGraph WAR age 30 season. He turned down the QO and then settled on a 1 year deal in March for the QO price. I think one or more of the available FA pitchers will snap up a similar deal if one is offered.

Braves add Ervin Santana to bolster rotation