After seeing Robertson’s stuff last night, I am now less disappointed in that trade. Impressive.
The guy has been hard to hit for a decade without throwing that hard. Everything really moves. It makes sense that he was pitching hurt in his brief time with the Phillies as the stuff was just not as crisp back then. I wonder if that shows in the advanced data on pitch movement.
Could it be that nothwithstanding 2019-20 (which unfortunately was the term of his last Phillies contract), he's always been one of those proverbial "rubber arm" guys? Might he be worth brining back next year on a one-year ride?
I would say it's very likely Robertson is re-signed. He liked it here (including Clearwater), always seemed to truly regret that he couldn't contribute and has been with Thomson for many years. Only question is $ since he took a cheap deal this year, made almost nothing last year and this might be his last contract (or last big one-year deal).
Given the enmity of players in general to owners taking a larger and larger share of revenue and players often doing considerable damage to their bodies to earn their money, I don't think players do (or should) feel any guilt in a situation such as Robertson's and find it difficult to believe he would give us a 'guilt discount'.
He actually made $23 million from us. Bigger question is what contract he can get FOUR years later coming off a good year. He'll be 38 next year.
Yes my question was basically Familia money or Knebel money. I think Knebel money, even at his age, especially if he ends up continuing to get saves. Familia and Hand were both pretty rocky at times last year (and Familia had been for quite a while) and were basically ex-closers. Knebel also an ex-closer but still got $10 million after almost three seasons of not pitching (just a smattering of bad performance in 2020) just on the strength of his two months with the Dodgers in 2021. Robertson has shown more than all of them this year.
No "guilt" discount but if he wants to stay it won't be hard to make a deal, and sure, he might trade that second year for less money. Both sides already know what the risk is there!
Robertson was also his own agent the first time he signed here, don't know if he still is.
Answering my own Q
As for the blue spikes and sneakers, Robertson said he needed to talk to his agent about procuring some red pairs. (Robertson is his own agent; he negotiated a $100,000 assignment bonus into his Cubs contract because he expected to be traded at some point.)
There are not a whole lot of wonderful comps for 38-year-old relievers. Remember he also has not closed that much in his career.
Best from last year was Melancon who got 2/14 for his age 37/38 years (and it would end up 3/17 if his 3rd year option got picked up). Robertson will be a year older than that and not necessarily more accomplished. I think it will be closer to Familia money than Knebel money for him - especially with the Knebel example of not being quite worth it. Kenley Jansen was 3.5 years younger, so his $16 million for 1 year is not a great comp.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/mark-melancon-7335/
Final line for Ben Brown in his debut for Tennessee tonight:
— CHGO Cubs ( @CHGO_Cubs ) August 7, 2022
5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 9 K 2 BB pic.twitter.com/ru83D8AUQ75
I think fans/pundits saying his ceiling is in relief are nuts. We gave up a valuable player to get Robertson for two months. Price of doing business, I guess.
Depends on whether he can develop three pitches, a solid FB isn't nearly enough in today's ML, since hitters can hit Alvarado's 100 MPH FB, they can certainly hit Brown's 95-97.
This is where the big three have an edge on Brown, they're more advanced with their secondary pitches relative to where they are in their development path.
A fastball is more than mph, it's movement and deception, too. Alvarado's FB is pretty straight; Brown's really moves.
If nrown develops his secondary pitches, it will change the narrative. As of now...we haven't seen that.
Phillies made a win now move....hope it works out.
They overpaid for Robertson thinking they weren't going to add a starter (or a fringe arm at best). But there's no doubt he makes the bullpen significantly better, and it was a pretty reasonable price considering what the non-rental relievers got.
9 months later
