well since we brought up this 9 month old thread.. Here is an article,
The thing is... it lists a bunch of changes he made with the help of the Cubs. Maybe those changes never happen with the Phillies.. maybe they do... but its a bunch of what ifs.
I do hate the trade. but hes in his 6th minor league season. Maybe hes finally breaking out.. but hes thrown 20 innings this year. Im not ready to declare this trade the next Ryne Sandberg or Fergie Jenkins
Phillies are much deeper in young arms than when they traded Brown.
Still didn't make it a good trade, but I think they were buying time b/c they wanted to win now and win then.
I had the same reaction and was coming to write another post blasting it when I realized the truth, lol
As a lot of us mention around here...you can never have enough good starting pitching. The kid was just rounding into shape and I was excited when I read he was moved up to Reading. I could get a look at. him. within a day he was gone. I was always intrigued by his size and it goes to show that you don't always find good pitchers just down south or out west. he hasn't made it yet, but he is on his way. Certainly not one of DD's smart moves. this has a chance to be a 'fleecer".
gm
They went to the World Series. Robertson was cheap (financially, so there was no way for the Phillies to lower the trade cost like they did with Thor) and in the middle of a great season. Was he as good as they would have liked from there? No, but he was very needed.
And Jorge Lopez would have cost a heck of a lot more. Or we could be paying Iglesias $16 million a year for the next three years (and he's injured now).
It amuses me that people get worked up about trading prospects when most of the times the trades don't matter at all. Most prospects have short/mediocre careers, fail completely, or get hurt. Sure, you need good young players who are relatively cheap to compete. But more often than not, the prospects don't contribute. Before the 2022 season, I mused whether a trade involving Alec Bohm could bring Matt Chapman. I don't know whether that could have happened, but if it had, the Phillies might have been world champions.
David Robertson saved six games and had 0.7 WAR for the Phillies last year, and they won the wild card by a game. They might not have made the playoffs without him.
To me, the poster child for prospect-trading angst was the Hunter Pence trade. Among the four prospects the Phillies traded, they had about 7-8 WAR total for their careers. Pence had almost 15 after Houston traded him, including 3.3 for the Phillies. If things had broken a bit differently in the playoffs, he could have been the difference on a championship team. That was a trade worth making.
Even when the prospects hit big that doesn't make them bad trades. You are always balancing present and future goals. If O'Hoppe is an all-star and Marsh merely a solid regular for a few years it was still a good deal. And if O'Hoppe is a solid regular and Marsh merely a 4th OF (which seems unlikely) the Phillies still don't make the playoffs last year with the incumbent CFs. Brown's value at the time was exactly what you want to give up for a rental relief pitcher. Anything more and you'd want something better than Robertson back; anything less and there's no point in making a trade at all, and then we are watching Sam Coonrod lose a World Series game.
They will probably trade Abel or McGarry some time in the next 12 months, and some will freak out about that.
I think the problem has been the lack of surplus talent in the system, so these sorts of trades just made a thin system thinner.
Hopefully that is starting to change, if Muzzioti, Rojas, De La Cruz, Crawford, Boyd, Garcia keep progressing, in a year or two the Phillies can trade from a surplus of young OFs - that's when it makes more sense - you have a good sense of which prospects are more likely to help you, and can move a couple who are likely to be blocked.
Same if they can develop a critical mass of young pitchers - if you have a couple young starters blocked at Lehigh, you can get a good return for a kid dominating AAA with a 95+ FB even if you don't think he's going to beat out his teammate next spring - some other team will gamble on him.
As we've see with Marsh, having good young talent to trade can land you other good young talent at a position of need.
You guys still love this trade? Here come the we don’t make it to the World Series that year without DRob crowd! Sooner or later you’ll realize Dealin Dave got worked here
Brown was fourth on the Phillies pitching prospect depth chart at the time behind Painter, Abel and McGarry. He subsequently blew up. Good for the Cubs. But still, if we don't make that trade we may have been home for the 2022 Postseason. No regrets, except for the clowns who think Robertson "stole the Phillies money" in 2019-20.
Every deadline trade should involve giving up some future value. What's a bummer is not what Robertson was or wasn't worth but that some of the guys who were untouchable instead of Brown aren't looking so great.
We probably should have traded a better prospect for a real reliever last year too. Much bigger error by Dombrowski to put so much stock in an overworked Kimbrel, a Lorenzen who didn't really want to be in the pen and Kerkering. Might have made it to the World Series.
I reviewed my post from a year ago, and I stand by it. Robertson may have been a difference maker in the Phillies getting to the World Series. Brown has pitched in 13 major league games. It's too early to call him the next Fergie Jenkins.
It's interesting that I invoked the Pence trade in my post from a year ago. Jarrod Cosart had the best career of anyone the Phillies gave up, and his career actually started better than Brown's has. In Cosart's first season with the Astros, he started 10 games with a 1.95 ERA. It would hardly be upsetting if Brown was the next Jarrod Cosart.
See also the Tigers trading Michigan native John Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander in a 1987 August waiver-wire deal. Not saying Brown is going to be a HOFer or that Robertson was near as impactful for the 2022 Phillies but few dump on the Tigers for making that trade as Alexander went 9-0 with a microscopic 1.53 ERA and got the Tigers to the Postseason. Despite only pitching in the AL for less than two months, Alexander finished fourth in the AL Cy Young vote. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Alexander got rocked in the ALCS by the eventual WC Twins.
Also see also the Red Sox trading New England native Jeff Bagwell to the Astros for our friend Larry Andersen at the 1990 deadline. Andersen was great for the Sawx and played a roll in getting them to the Postseason. Few condemn the Red Sox for making that trade.
In short, sometimes the seller strikes gold in these trades while they buyer gets momentary help though all you have to do is get to October when anything can happen.
Cautionary note about Brown: this is his proverbial "first time through the league". Let's see how things go after MLB gets a good look at him and makes adjustments. Heck, look at all the starting pitchers we've had through the years who thrilled us as rookies but never duplicated their rookie success (Hudson, Ruffin, Grace, Duckworth, Worley, just to name a few off the top of my head).
If Brown turns out to be as good as Bagwell or Smoltz it will be a bad trade. Those are both legendary, even with the good short-term outcome.
But, this is what a farm system is for. You don't keep them all. If they get you help in a post-season year everyone still did their job. Obviously a bullpen rental shouldn't cost you as much as a controllable starter but the likes of Roy Oswalt and Brandon Marsh required a bigger package (of players in Oswalt's case and prospect in Marsh's).
I mean there's a real possibility that Dombrowski loses this one but the body of work since he took over has been really something
Traded Garrett Cleavenger for Jose Alvarado
Signed Jeff Hoffman off a tryout
Traded Curtis Mead for Cristopher Sanchez
Traded Logan O'Hoppe for Brandon Marsh
Claimed Christian Pache
Traded Jojo Romero for Edmundo Sosa
I'd still do the Soto trade though that is probably close.
