(2-Year Old Thread) Phillies have acquired RP David Robertson from the Cubs For SP Ben Brown

[Austinfan]

Woah, slow down here.

I didn't like giving up Brown, but he was behind Abel, Painter, McGarry, not sure he was ahead of Miller, as a RP, probably behind Morales. A good prospect, and I think an overpay for Robertson, but not the end of the world kind of move.

O'Hoppe for Marsh was a good move, O'Hoppe may become a starting catcher, he has shown steady improvement, he's certainly a promising prospect, but he's 22 in AA. At 22, Marsh missed a season due to COVID, then at 23 was rushed to the majors - but he was higher ranked as a prospect going into 2021-22 than O'Hoppe is now. So we weakened catcher, where we have Sands, Marchan, Perez, and strengthened CF, where we have Rojas, Muziotti. Both are long-term gambles, but Marsh can contribute to a potential playoff team right now, not in two years. The Angels didn't think Marsh's bat played up enough in LF b/c CF is kinda blocked.

Romero was a talented LH RP coming off of injury with the resultant risk, Sosa is a top fielding SS who was a starter level player a year ago and is still only 26. So no problem there.

Moniak and a low A CF who is a decent prospect but not even in the Phillies top 30 for a SP for the stretch run, no problem. Young questionable OFs is something we have too many of - what we need are less questions.

What DD didn't do is trade his best prospects in a headline deal, and he got young players back who are closer to the majors - our minor league strength is A ball, our weakness are players who can contribute this year or next year.

[allentown]

I'm fine with the Sosa and Syndegaard trades. Please, let's not ding O'Hoppe for being 22 and in AA. He lost a year to the Covid shutdown, Marsh did not. Catchers move slower than OFs. O'Hoppe was our top position-player prospect. Know who else was 22 in AA, without the Covid lost year, and then repeated most of his age 23 year in AA before moving to MLB late that season? Yup, it was J.T. Realmuto. Carlos Ruiz spent his whole age 25 season in AA. Brown is a very strong pitching prospect and possibly the closest to the majors. His high K-rate is matched by a low BB-rate and WHIP. A lot to like. I've read your past opinions of Phillies who K as much as Marsh does, with as low a OBP and BA. Not positive. If this trade was a bet on the Phillies fixing his bat for this season -- that's a poor bet.

Your comment was to my response to Zambonir who wants the Phillies to be either great or terrible, not a watchable team which just sneaks into the final expanded WC and exits the playoffs quickly. Well, these trades don't make us great and they delay our becoming great, which was the point of my response to Zambonir. Marsh boosts our CF D. He does not boost our CF offense. Perhaps I am too negative on Robertson from his last time in Philly. I know Brown was a lot to pay for two months of his services. He's pitched well so far this season. He also pitched as well the year before we acquired him. He's also 37 and already pitched 40 innings, a number he's surpassed once since 2016, and that back in 2018.

[Philsmania]

Robertson needs to do well right away since this trade is not being well received by a big portion of the blue collar fanbase which is resentful that he got paid $23 million for seven ineffective games the last time he was here. It doesn't matter that he got hurt,. It still offends their "you get paid for a day's work" sensibilities and they genuinely believe that he "stole the Phillies' money ".

[Aquapong]

It’s disappointing that Robertson was injured most of the time he was here before, but if you’re hurt, you’re hurt. Other teams get bitten by it too. Look at Strasburg and the Nats. He signed the big deal and got hurt right after. He’s barely pitched since.

[Austinfan]

Marsh also lost a year to COVID, my point was before Marsh hit the majors he was actually considered a better prospect than O'Hoppe. So this trade was more about shifting resources, not reducing long-term value - and DD has said his coaches have seen flaws in Marsh (and Sosa) they think they can fix - and that's key to finding assets, buy "low" and develop other people's disappointments.

I didn't like the Robertson deal for the same reason you didn't, doesn't move the needle enough to justify giving up a young, promising pitcher.

Romero for Sosa on the other hand is a talented but injury risk LH RP for a potential starting SS, two years ago Sosa was on his way to a 3 WAR season (1.8 WAR in 326 PA), so he's worth the gamble at 26.

[andyb]

Marsh also lost a year to COVID, my point was before Marsh hit the majors he was actually considered a better prospect than O'Hoppe.

This is not completely true. They are pretty close in the rankings and now we have 2 years of Marsh not doing well so that can't be completely ignored. Moniak was considered a top 100 prospect once in a galaxy far, far away.

One can like Marsh as a prospect and still see the possibility that this will end up a bad trade. He also does not seem to be an "elite" CF defender like all the articles imply. He is good in a corner but has been average at best in limited time in CF. He may not be better defensively than Vierling who I still hope is the platoon starter even with all the happy talk about making Marsh a full time starter.

[zambonir]

Your comment was to my response to Zambonir who wants the Phillies to be either great or terrible, not a watchable team which just sneaks into the final expanded WC and exits the playoffs quickly. Well, these trades don't make us great and they delay our becoming great, which was the point of my response to Zambonir.

I just don't think they do. Re-signing Didi and JT and going all in again this year (while wasting 2020 and 2021 by not exceeding the CBT) already did that. Accelerating the rebuild in 2018 and 2019 did that. I would have banked harder in one or both of those years (had the first two not failed so hard the next two might have gone better).

But having chosen that course they have to try to win and get better with the players they have now. Particularly since they are sitting in playoff position with one of the best records in baseball since June 1 despite missing two starting pitchers and two starting position players for part of that time. I think our brains believe they aren't as good as they are because what else are we supposed to believe? But these moves are not going to keep the 2025 team from being great.

If we're lucky we can worry about this more over the next two seasons, if they do have a legit shot at the division or World Series and do start trading more prospects. But Dombrowski doesn't seem to be there yet. And it may also turn out they sold high on O'Hoppe and Brown, which is a nice change as well.

[Philsmania]

Might it be worth mentioning that until recently, Brown pitched at Jersey Shore which is a pitcher's park? I guess how he would have done in Reading's bandbox is a big what-if.

[allentown]

my point was before Marsh hit the majors he was actually considered a better prospect than O'Hoppe.

Domonic Brown was considered a better prospect than either of them. We know how that ended. Marsh has a year and a half in the majors. That, rather than how he was considered as a minor leaguer is how he is most appropriately judged. If O'Hoppe can be dinged for not yet moving beyond AA, Marsh can certainly be dinged for not being able to hit since he moved to the majors.

[allentown]

He certainly gives up more HRs. Probably not a significant impact on his K-rates and BB-rates. The reason I am so annoyed with trading him for a rental relief pitcher is that I have seen a lot of Phillies big pitchers move through Reading and none has had the K/BB rate to go with the high K-rate and low-WHIP that the 6'-6" Brown has demonstrated. He is a rare large pitching prospect. It is a big loss from the farm for a rental reliever in a year where this still does not make us a serious contender.

[zambonir]

It is a big loss from the farm for a rental reliever in a year where this still does not make us a serious contender.

I just don't think you can say the Phiillies aren't a "serious contender" at this point in the current MLB era. I'm not saying we should view them as a 100+ win team (even though that is exactly how they've played under Thomson) but they also didn't make the kind of huge trades/system-stripping move that would have been called for if they are. I also think they are more like last year's Braves than not (except they are actually far better than last year's Braves team was at the deadline, and instead of making a ton of trades to revamp the team, they made a few trades and will get back two important players).

Recent playoff history:

2021: 88-win team won the World Series
2020: 29-31 team made the ALCS
2019: 93-win Wild card won it all against a 107-win defending champion

The main difference, of course, is that the Braves, Astros and Nationals had a lot more success and a lot more pedigree going into those more quirky seasons. Which is, again, why I wouldn't have wanted the Phillies to truly sell out the farm chasing an NLCS championship that might not come. But an NLDS appearance is a modest/realistic goal, a win is not out of the question, and doing even more, well, you never know.

And yesterday's moves were not that aggressive - even less so if you consider the ceiling on Brown and O'Hoppe might not be as high as we may have wished, that they also made a few useful 40-man tweaks, and they have Marsh for years to come.

[phillychuck]

Whether yesterday's trades were a net positive depends very much on who was right about O'Hoppe and Marsh. DD pretty much said in his PC yesterday that they had O'Hoppe's ceiling pegged at average MLB starter (he pulled that back a bit after he said it). They were also very optimistic that Marsh can hit if they fix a swing flaw or two. They'd better be right about those two assessments. If O'Hoppe becomes a MLB 900 OPS catcher with average defense we got hosed. If Marsh gets to 750-800 OPS CF with plus defense, we won. If both those things happen, it's probably a narrow win for us. The Brown/Moniak/Sanchez portion of the trade is the price of doing business, I think, although Brown may be better than they think.

[Austinfan]

There's also organization strengths to consider.

Muzzioti and Rojas are the only credible CFs, and they're both probably 2 years away or more. The high priced signings and draft picks lower in the system all look like busts right now (don't expect a rapid accension).

Stubbs is a capable backup, Marchan and Sands are also in the mix, and Perez is the high priced LA signing who's is off to a good start.

Marsh can help now, O'Hoppe was probably a year or more away of winning the backup job for a season or two.
So if they're close to even, Marsh is the more valuable player to the Phillies the next few years.

[andyb]

We just drafted 2 CF options also. They are 3-4 years away, but I'd say Crawford is in our top 5 prospects and Boyd is probably top 20 given the bonus he got (our second largest draft bonus).

[Sabin]

since June 1 despite missing two starting pitchers and two starting position players for part of that time.

Not to stray from the main point, but am I missing something with the SP statement? Not picking on you, Z; this isn't the first time I've come across the two missing SPs qualifier. I only recall one missed Suarez start at the beginning of July (and of course Gibson's on Tuesday). To me, a missed start doesn't qualify as 'missing a starting pitcher', especially in the context of a two-month span, so it stuck out when i read it again here.

[zambonir]

Well, I guess you can define "part of that time" anyway you want but Suarez was on the IL from June 30 to July 16. And Sanchez made two starts during that period, even with the all-star break (while Falter, who replaced Eflin, would have made three if not for the Toronto thing).

Eflin's IL stint is back-dated to June 26 and he made five starts in June (albeit not always effectively) so I guess it's more accurate to say they were missing two SPs for a chunk of July.

[zambonir]

If O'Hoppe becomes a MLB 900 OPS catcher with average defense we got hosed. If Marsh gets to 750-800 OPS CF with plus defense, we won. If both those things happen, it's probably a narrow win for us.

I think there are lower good-case scenarios for both of them really. If Marsh is a .700 OPS hitter he can still be a 2.0 WAR player (he appears to be headed for a 1.2-1.4 season this year even with a .637 OPS).

And if O'Hoppe is an .800 OPS player with average defense that's still a starting major league catcher.

The bigger variable to me is the timeline, but even that can be spun either way. If O'Hoppe catches 80 games in the majors next year the Philles were probably right to trade him because he couldn't have done that here. And if it actually takes him 2-3 years to become an everyday starting catcher (the equivalent of a season in AAA, then another as a back-up) while Marsh contributes to three playoff teams, that's okay too (even if we might wish O'Hoppe was still around to replace JT in 2024. They weren't gonna wait for that).

[phillychuck]

Good points about the timeline. I'd be really happy if Marsh settled into the low 700s with his OPS...and shaved the Harden beard, it makes him look like he's 45.

[Sabin]

I didn't mean to argue semantics; more, I was legitimately curious why I was reading things one way while my brain was thinking it another (not an uncommon occurrence). Seeing some of the specific details and events makes it click a little better.

[LoneStarPhan]

Robertson wearing number 30.
Sosa switched to 33.