Winter 2019-20 Roster Moves / Rule 5 Draft Discussion

[julio]

2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

I could be wrong about this but I don't think they can outright [Robertson].

Based on a quick perusal of Artlcle XIX of the CBA, I think you're correct. The Phils' options w/r/t Robertson are: 1) Keep him on the roster, and put him on the 60-day IL in March; or 2) ask unconditional release waivers on him. If they ask waivers and he's claimed, his contract goes with him. If he's not claimed, he's released, and the Phils pay him $13 million (2020 salary plus 2021 buyout).

Since I seem to have opened this box, here are some summaries:

Eight free agents (as of 9 am this morning):

Corey Dickerson
Tommy Hunter
Brad Miller
Logan Morrison
Juan Nicasio
Sean Rodriguez
Drew Smyly
Nick Vincent

(The Phils could - theoretically - make Qualified Offers to Hunter, Nicasio, or Rodriguez - but they won't!)

Three players with club options that could be declined (deadline for decision is 5 pm next Monday):

Jared Hughes
Pat Neshek
Jason Vargas

The 15(!) players who are arbitration-eligible (some of whom may be non-tendered) (tender deadline is December 2nd):

Zach Eflin
Jerad Eickhoff
Vince Velasquez
Jose Alvarez
Adam Morgan
Mike Morin
Hector Neris
Blake Parker
Edubay Ramos
Maikel Franco
Phil Gosselin
Cesar Hernandez
Jose Pirela
Andrew Knapp
J.T. Realmuto

[Philsmania]

I was wondering if somebody should start a forty man roster thread.

I think everybody in the first two categories goes away, except for maybe Miller whom I could see them re-signing.

Of the third category, most likely non-tenders I see are Eickhoff (sorry, AF), Parker, Gosselin and Pivetta. I doubt they nontender Hernandez but he could be traded.

Who from the minors needs to be protected?

[julio]

2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

I think everybody in the first two categories goes away, except for maybe Miller whom I could see them re-signing.

They might want to re-sign Brad Miller - but as a free agent, he'd have to want to return to Philly, as opposed to moving on to one of the other 29 clubs. It's not at all clear that he'd see Philadelphia as his best option (for playing time, post-season opportunity, as a place to live, etc.). Because he's a free agent, the Phils have no real "home club advantage" in seeking his future services.

I was wondering if somebody should start a forty man roster thread

OK, you convinced me! So I moved these three posts here...

Who from the minors needs to be protected?

Addressing the "Who should be protected?" question isn't as cut-and-dried as clearing out the dead wood. The list of eligible players is long, but most of them wouldn't be drafted, and wouldn't really be a loss if they were.

[julio]

On Rule 5 candidates... there are 50+ players in the system who will be eligible for the draft. Several (eleven, by my count) are eligible for minor-league free agency (as of November 4 - Monday):

Malquin Canelo
Ali Castillo
Grenny Cumana
Jan Hernandez
Matt McBride
Jose Pujols
Alexis Rivero
Shane Robinson
Andrew Romine
Tyler Viza
Mitch Walding

Eligible players who've reached AAA:

Jose Antequera
Tyler Gilbert
Luke Leftwich
Brandon Leibrandt
Seth McGarry
JoJo Romero
Ramon Rosso

Romero would be at risk, and might be missed. The rest of 'em?

Others who might get some interest, or who have come to our attention:

Daniel Brito (A+)
Darick Hall (AA)
Mauricio Llovera (AA)
Jhailyn Ortiz (A+)
Cornelius Randolph (AA)

Anybody else we should mention?

[andyb]

Some team might easily see Romero as a pitcher who could stick as a 2nd or 3rd LHP in the pen. I assume the others on that AAA list are not good enough to be worried about losing them even if some could pitch in the majors this year. Llovera has the high end velocity they might want to protect.

Freely stealing from the Phuture Phillies post, other names to think about protecting would include:
Luke Williams
Bailey Falter
Rafael Marchan - I expect him to be protected
Rodolfo Duran
Tyler Gilbert
Jose Gomez

Rule 5 Information for 2019 (last updated 9/30)

It actually looks to be a short protection list this year. Probably why we claimed that pitcher the other day. Most likely we have a couple of spots open for a rule 5, though things will certainly tighten up after we add 3 or 4 free agents (the smaller ticket ones for the bench and bullpen).

[Philsmania]

Honestly, not a lot worth protecting, in keeping with our recent laments about the state of the Phillies' pharm. I might add J. Ortiz to the list if he is eligible but give him a short leash there. Honestly, he, Marchan and Romero are the only ones I really think might need protecting. Maybe Falter since he's a lefty.

[julio]

Marchan? High ceiling? He's young, but hasn't exactly torn up A-ball. It's pretty unusual to lose a single-A position player in the Rule 5 draft - it's just too hard to keep a guy who's not ready for the Show on a major-league bench, given the size of contemporary bullpens.

I thought about adding Luke Williams to my list above - because he was a high draft pick, mostly. He's shown some improvement, but as with Marchan - can be be stowed on a short major-league bench? (Or does the expansion of major-league active rosters to 26 change the Rule 5 game?)

Ditto Ortiz. Again, ceiling, and expectations as of when he was signed... but can you see him spending 2020 on a major-league bench?

I think I'm coming down to protecting Romero and Llovera, and I'd take my chances on the position players that might get drafted, and get a spring training look - even if they're drafted, they'll likely be coming back in April (or the Phils might negotiate something of interest in trade).

[andyb]

We have seen a couple of class A catchers get drafted in recent years. Not sure if they stuck of course. I just think they like Marchan defensively and could see some team stashing him as the backup even if his bat is not ready.

We also have a 26th player this year, so 5 man benches everywhere. I can't imagine Ortiz being ready for a pinch hitting role off the bench now so I think they let him slide. I would actually love to see him play in the Dominican this winter to see if he is making progress. But with little defensive value he is not really someone you can stash on the bench. At least someone like Tyler Goeddel could play defense and pinch run ( and he had a week or two when he actually hit if I recall).

[flyers19rw]

Of the potential FAs, it would be nice to sign Dickerson but he'll probably get better money and term from another organization that will guarantee more playing time than he would get here. Signing Smyly on an incentive laden contract would be a move that could work out for both sides.
Declining all options for payers should be a no brainer.
A portion of the arb eligible players aren't worth keeping.
As for the rule 5 eligibles, there aren't many there worth worrying about. Actually scoring some rule 5's off of other team's rosters probably has more promise.
Girardi and Price might have some different views on a lot of these players, good and bad, than those that presently exist here. Also they might see some players with promise on other clubs that presently aren't on the Phillies list to get list.

[julio]

At least someone like Tyler Goeddel could play defense and pinch run ( and he had a week or two when he actually hit if I recall).

Well, Goeddel is an interesting example. We kept him around... but he hasn't sniffed the majors since that season. If we lose a Rule 5 pick equivalent to Goeddel (Luke Williams?), we lose... nothing. No future major-league WAR value, at all.

[el-pietro]

I'm not sure theres a tonne of value in keeping Dickerson. Seems somewhat redundant given we already have McCutchen and Bruce. Three left fielders with injury concerns. McCutchen obviously can do a job in CF as well. Bruce is very easy to move given the Mets are paying most of his contract.

[andyb]

Well, Goeddel is an interesting example. We kept him around... but he hasn't sniffed the majors since that season. If we lose a Rule 5 pick equivalent to Goeddel (Luke Williams?), we lose... nothing. No future major-league WAR value, at all.

That is the choice. Goeddel had some raw speed and power so there was some hope that he could turn into a Josh Reddick type player. Of course anybody that is a marginal protection decision is most likely not a great prospect. They would have moved through our system more quickly or be more ready for the majors if they were.

I consider Luke Williams to be a potentially useful utility player in a couple of years. But he would he be better than Brad Miller or even Sean Rodriguez? Probably a 5%-10% chance of that. So not worth protecting. That is how I feel about bullpen arms too that don't have velocity that can't be replaced. Luke Leftwich could become a useful back of the bullpen piece. But is he better than the guys we signed on waivers at the trade deadline?

If the Phillies think that Marchan will top out as a backup catcher they should not protect him. If they think he can be a starter (and the timing of 3-4 years from now might coincide with when we need another catcher) then they might protect him. Ceiling matters as much as proximity in the protection decision.

Goeddel is certainly fascinating as to why his career stalled. At age 22 he had s season not unlike Adam Haseley did at age 22 but with 30 SB speed. He then failed to hit double digits in both HRs and SBs starting at age 24. Sometimes tools don't develop or maybe he had some nagging injuries that robbed him of some athleticism.

[zambonir]

Yeah, even 4-6 weeks of Robertson, while maybe a longshot (in terms of performance if not availability), is still worth a 40-man spot (plus there's value in knowing he won't take one up once spring training breaks). In such a scenario I also think it's not out of the question that he comes back for 2021, on a mutually agreed upon new deal rather than the one-year option. He sounds like he feels as though he'll want the Phillies to still try and get something out of him for all that money (and he doesn't have an agent).

I've seen writers speculate Hunter might be willing to come back on a new cheap deal. Who knows, or if they'd even want him. I also wonder if Neshek will retire. I still think Jared Hughes might be worth keeping at $2.75 million if you think he can bounce back. I think they can have Miller and Smyly if they want them, though who knows, maybe another team would be more inclined to guarantee Smyly a spot in the rotation, and/or a longer deal.

It'll be those few weeks before the tender deadline that get interesting.

I think guys like Goedell tend to be ruined by Rule V itself. Not that the opportunity and freedom of movement is a bad thing. But when you have to either play in the majors before you're ready or rot on the major league bench (he did a little of both) it messes up your development. Whereas guys like Victorino and Enciarte thrived because they didn't end up being subject to Rule V and went back to the minors. Herrera was a rare exception but he was an older player who'd repeated AA, so skipping AAA wasn't that big a deal (and some of these guys haven't even made it to AA yet).

[julio]

First bit of news:

Jon Heyman on Twitter

[bkeich]

Sorry to see Neshak go, he has been one of our better players for a few years, but there just isn’t a spot for him, even at a discounted price. Wish him well

[zambonir]

Oh, I dunno, if he wanted to come back I'd take a flier but I'm not sure he should get any guaranteed money at all, and certainly not more than $1 milllion (on top of his $750K buyout). Also not sure it's accurate to say he was actually that good. In 2017, yes, but that was a different contract, before we traded him to Colorado. Was basically a bust under the current deal, except for a little bit of last season. Kind of seems like he's broken down for good; OTOH, he doesn't have a lot of mileage on him over the last two seasons.

He's a guy who might also struggle with the new bullpen rule.

[Philsmania]

Another point about Neshek is that he allegedly couldn't pitch on consecutive days. Whether that was on account of health or him slowing down due to age is unknown. But, either way, it's a red flag if true.

[julio]

As entirely expected, mlb.com transactions page now identifies the former Phillie free agents:

3B Sean Rodriguez elected free agency.
RHP Tommy Hunter elected free agency.
1B Logan Morrison elected free agency.
RHP Juan Nicasio elected free agency.
2B Brad Miller elected free agency.
RHP Nick Vincent elected free agency.
LF Corey Dickerson elected free agency.
LHP Drew Smyly elected free agency.

Note that these guys don't actually have to "elect" free agency. It happens automatically as their contracts expire.

[julio]

Odubel Herrera is off the suspended list, goes back on the 40-man roster.

Matt Breen on Twitter

[zambonir]

Story mentions no decision on Hughes or Vargas yet, presumably Klentak will be going over that with Price and Girardi (and/or they're talking to the returning pitching coaches). I would think Vargas pitched his way out of a job and may have to be happy to take his $2 million and a minor league deal from someone. Hughes still strikes me as someone where you figure out if he's still got his core stuff/health, and then decide of the home run problem can be fixed with mechanics or approach. Still a lot easier to cut a $2.75 million guy than a $9 million guy.