Winter 2019-20 Roster Moves / Rule 5 Draft Discussion

[andyb]

Pirela to Japan:

Scott Lauber on Twitter

Also Salisbury had us exploring moves for Franco, talking specifically to Detroit. Assume we can't get much. Maybe pay them a couple million of his salary and we'll get a C level prospect or some international slots.

[BostonRoss]

FWIW, I believe Price briefly managed Hughes in Cincinnati.

[zambonir]

Yup. Plus a whole spring training!

[LoneStarPhan]

Stephen Strasburg Opts Out Of Nationals Contract

One more top of the rotation arm available. This should increase the Phillies chances of improving the rotation.

[zambonir]

Except it is unlikely he is leaving. We shall see how close they are.

[andyb]

Seems likely they will add a couple of years and raise the AAV to $30 million a Strasburg stays. He is due 4/100. He probably is a bit old to get $200 million these days, so something in the 6/180 range that gets negotiated fairly quickly seems right. Rendon is the trickier question for the Nats IMO. They might have to go into the luxury tax to keep him and some semblance of a bullpen.

[Squire]

https://twitter.com/Phillies/status/1191475547458691072/photo/1

Phillies Roster Update

1.Declined options on Jared Hughes, Pat Neshek, Jason Vargas
2. Arrieta declined to exercise his opt out (or exercised his player option if you want to look at it that way)
3. Phillies outrighted Jerad Eickhoff, Edubray Ramos, Phil Gosselin, Jared Parker and Mike Morin and they all elected free agency
4. Reinstated from the 60 Day DL the following: Victor Arano, Jake Arrieta, Robert Stock, Adam Morgan, David Robertson, Andrew McCutchen, Seranthony Dominguez
5. Reinstated Odubel Herrera from the restricted list.

Phillies down to 35 on the 40 man

[andyb]

A reminder of the arbitration estimates:
Cesar Hernandez – $11.8MM
J.T. Realmuto – $10.3MM
Blake Parker – $4.7MM
Jose Alvarez – $3.0MM
Maikel Franco – $6.7MM
Vince Velasquez – $3.9MM
Hector Neris – $4.7MM
Jerad Eickhoff – $1.5MM
Mike Morin – $1.2MM
Adam Morgan – $1.6MM
Phil Gosselin – $700K
Edubray Ramos – $800K
Zach Eflin – $3.0MM
Jose Pirela – $900K
Andrew Knapp – $800K

Parker was going to be gone at $4.7 million. Ramos is a bit of a surprise to me at $800K unless he is just not healthy. Eickhoff at $1.5 million was not a surprise.

The remaining arbitration eligibles are Hernandez, Realmuto, Alvarez, Franco, Velasquez, Neris, Morgan, Eflin, and Knapp. Assume the Franco decision is still forthcoming but this is probably good news for Morgan and Knapp who probably were not 100% certain.

[andyb]

If we re-sign Cesar, give a higher dollar contract to Realmuto and then get Velasquez, Neris, Morgan, Eflin, and Knapp for their arbitration estimates we'll probably have somewhere in the $30-$40 million range (the lower end would be more if Realmuto gets $20 million in a long term deal - we really should have done that last year to have a low salary year in the mix).

It will be hard to add 2 starters and a couple of relievers and bench players and stay under the luxury tax limit. Just a reality of not having more low cost options in regular roles (the Alfaro, Crawford, Velasquez, and Pivetta disappointments).

[zambonir]

I would have rolled the dice on Ramos and Morin, possibly Hughes as well (and interesting they prefer Stock) but they obviously have other plans. And faith in fungibility. Hopefully this means they are optimistic about Morgan and Seranthony being ready in April.

I don't think Morgan and Knapp were really in danger at those prices. That's still cheap for a switch-hitting back-up catcher even with his shortcomings. Plus he can be optioned, would be tradeable (never mind the return, but you wouldn't have to eat the $). You could pay twice that for a 33 year-old with just as many shortcomings. And when it comes to cost vs. variability arguably Alvarez is more of a risk than Morgan (assuming Morgan's elbow is okay of course).

I imagine we'll see Gosselin back in Alllentown.

I wonder if Realmuto is actually eager to get a deal done, or if he's more determined to hit the open market than we might realize.

[andyb]

I wonder if Realmuto is actually eager to get a deal done, or if he's more determined to hit the open market than we might realize.

I have no idea. He seems to be responsive to them and happy where he is. And it is hard for a catcher to turn down $100 million in guaranteed money and take a 1-year injury risk. He must figure that if this Phillies window closes and he is still healthy that the Phillies would trade him relatively easily. And if the Phillies do get better and compete then he is fine with staying.

[zambonir]

I'm just saying, there's a perception that the Phillies didn't want to lock him up immediately, or in-season, so they could see how it went in Year 1. But he might have been the more reluctant party. They already knew how good he was when they acquired him; he didn't necessarily know what he would think of playing here, or what his value might be (based on both performance and market).

Who knows. He might be signed in two weeks. Or they both might want to wait to see what Grandal gets. And then there's still the arbitration deadline (as wound up being the case with Nola and we didn't even think they were trying to extend him!)

[Philsmania]

Nick Vincent still around. He was a guy who I thought was worth bringing back. See if we can get Morin on a MiL deal.

[bkeich]

A shame to see them give up on Ramos, he has mostly been pretty good despite a little mental slip a couple years ago.

I think I might have stuck with Morin at that price.

[schillingfan]

Who is Robert Stock? I read his info on Baseball Reference and he’s going to be 30 this month and isn’t even arbitration eligible until 2022. 2nd round draftee of Cards in 2009. I’m guessing we got him as a six-year minor league free agent. Will he be reinstated on 40 man r first guy dropped when we need a spot? Do we want him?

[Jeff05]

Phillies add a power-armed bullpen candidate

[zambonir]

Vincent was a free agent.

And yes it seems they preferred Stock to some of what they had in hand.

I guess they have just seen enough of Ramos, though he's still pretty young. He wasn't going to make the team this past year out of ST (until Arano's struggles) and they kind of buried him the year before too. Had also become injury-prone (just like everyone else, but with less track record).

I guess he must be out of options now? In fact, a lot of these moves can probably be explained by that. They gotta save the spots at the bottom for optionable arms, which none of our late additions were (how we got them in the first place), and they can do better (and spend more $) for the one or two higher-leverage pieces.

It also suggests that one of Pivetta or VV is definitely going to be in the bullpen, if not both.

[julio]

I guess [Ramos] must be out of options now?

Yes. The only guy in the batch they outrighted who had options remaing was Eickhoff (who has one remaining option year). Jose Pirela also had one option remaining.

Arano, Davis, Dominguez, Garcia, Hammer, Suarez all have options remaining, as do all the starters (Arrieta De Los Santos, Eflin, Irvin, Medina, Nola, Velasquez).

[andyb]

Stock probably has less than a 50% chance of surviving the winter on the roster. Since they don't have a huge number of new players to protect, he'll probably make it through the winter meetings but he probably is in some danger as they fill up the roster (when all teams have 40-man issues in January).

[zambonir]

I remember in Klentak's first season he claimed two relievers who never made it January. One of them was Dan Otero who was traded to Cleveland, where he stuck for four seasons. The other (I had to Google) was A.J. Achter.

Arano, Davis, Dominguez, Garcia, Hammer, Suarez all have options remaining, as do all the starters (Arrieta De Los Santos, Eflin, Irvin, Medina, Nola, Velasquez).

And Pivetta?

I would think Austin Davis is gone by Rule V (especially given Suarez's emergence, and even Irvin's late relief performance). Still hopeful about Garcia and Hammer if they figure out what happened to Hammer. Garcia probably is that up/down guy. Though the recall period is going to be longer as well, right? Injuries tend to make that moot but would be better not to have them.