Wheeler signs extension

[David_Criss]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/sources-phillies-zack-wheeler-agree-to-3-year-126m-extension/ar-BB1jja4f?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=c369a0cbb47745b7ab4e8892c8aa84f9&ei=7

3 years $126 million

That is a ton of money, but I like only going three-years

[zambonir]

Already in the spring training thread but agree it merits its own (I was going to wait until the Phillies announced it, I assume they won't wait for the press conference to send release/official tweet.)

As Zolecki noted Wheeler will also have 10/5 rights (the 5 being with the Phillies) so didn't need a no-trade clause.

This was always the choice - pay him $30million something for a longer deal or $40million something for a shorter.

[David_Criss]

Sorry I totally missed it in the ST thread. Phillies are paying $42 mil per - this is HUGE and I look forward to the conversation. Like I am already wondering what this does for Harper, who I'd argue has more value to the Phillies than Wheeler does...

[zambonir]

Well Harper already made (slightly) less in AAV than Wheeler to begin with (and he makes less than Turner and Nola too) so it shouldn't really change anything. He may still want his extension but it's not likely to increase the actual money that goes in his pocket on an annual basis (whether now or in 2032).

[andyb]

Definitely market rate but that is what he has been worth and the shorter length means less downside risk of the back end years.

I wonder if this gives the Phillies the opportunity to add these years to the last year of the current contract for the AAV calculation. That would help them in subsequent years, though also add like $14 million to this year's AAV if they did it which would push them up against the 3rd penalty tier or at least close to it.

[bkox]

He gets a hotel suite on road trips and agrees to make a $100,000 charitable contribution each year.

Wheeler's average trails only Los Angeles Dodgers two-way star Shohei Ohtani ($70 million), Texas pitcher Max Scherzer ($43.33 million) and Houston pitcher Justin Verlander ($43.33 million), the latter two who signed their deals with the New York Mets.

[zambonir]

I guess I thought that if he signs/they announce it, it absolutely becomes a single new contract with the new AAV going onto this year (but like you say, lowers it later).

This definitely came up last year with Nola, where Dombrowski said that while they wanted to get it done, not doing it meant it wouldn't affect the '23 payroll.

[Aquapong]

Hopefully he beats father time or the last two years could be ugly. Unfortunately that’s just the going rate anymore. He has been underpaid a little for his last three years, so we’ve got to pay more at the back end to squeeze the last years of his prime out of him.

[zambonir]

Not that he can say anything otherwise, but there's a certain hubris/blindness to this perspective. Like, do we really think there's not going to be a point where either the Phillies are bad for several years (and it would make sense to ask Bryce to accept a trade) or both the team and Bryce are bad for several years (a la Cabrera or Votto, the latter of whom may yet finish his career elsewhere).

Asked today whether focus would turn to a Bryce extension with Wheeler done, John Middleton said he didn’t have anything new to share.

But he reiterated what he’s said in the past: “My goal is that [Bryce] retires as a Phillie. My expectation is that he retires as a Phillie.” pic.twitter.com/FBDoCTrOcR

— John Foley ( @2008Philz ) March 4, 2024

[bkeich]

I guess this is trying to close out this core and keeping our best pitcher, but this is a huge cost. I just fear an injury and then we are crippled because we are so far over reasonable pay.

I just don’t see much wiggle room to add to the team in the next couple of years unless we can find some really stupid team to take Castellanos or Schwarber.

Glad it got done, but $25-28 AAV would have been a lot better and closer to reality.

[zambonir]

In whose reality? He's been the best pitcher in baseball by various measures over the last few years. He got market rate based on the pitchers most like him. And if they'd given him $30 million it would have been a five-year deal. Offer 25-28, he's playing on this same deal for another team next year. And the Phillies did have to overpay based on how much he outperformed the current deal.

Yeah, he's older but signing any pitcher - Snell, Burnes - comes with risk. And they'd all have longer terms (ultimately), while few of them (Nola included) are as good.

This is the path they've chosen, and there's really no better one now that they are on it. If it all falls apart they will have to rebuild, or carry $325 million in salary (and there's no reason they can't do that unless the Bucks and the third owner aren't on board. But that doesn't seem to be the case. The purpose of the third owner seems to be to make it easier to spend, even).

If a few holes do pop up over the next two years you fill them with youth or mid-level free agents, not stars. After that, god willing, you fill them with more youth.

[zambonir]

That the contract begins in 2025 rather than overriding the final season of the right-hander’s current five-year, $118MM contract is notable for luxury tax purposes. Because the deal goes into place in 2025, Wheeler’s CBT hit will remain $23.6MM for the upcoming season before vaulting substantially in 2025.

Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler To Record Extension

So, that does create some motivation to offload Walker next year if Abel/Painter can take a spot, but if all goes well they simply won't need to add any nine-figure players next season, except maybe a reliever (Strahm and Hoffman will be FAs, Soto due another raise, Seranthony a $9million option).

[Jazzhead]

Nice to see this get done; I assume the Phils ownership is comfortable with the luxury tax implications because it makes little sense to sign guys like Nola and Wheeler if they don't intend to build a great team around them.

That's how the game operates these days - the wealthier clubs have to pay the tax so that the Kansas City Royals of the world can keep their Witts about them.

[andyb]

I think one can only roll the pre-arbitration 1 year deals into a contract extension for AAV purposes. Otherwise MLB would force a recalculation of AAV levels in previous years potentially.

Probably best that they have room below to top threshold to maneuver. Agree there is incentive to move Walker, but there are lots of things that will occur before then. I think the Phillies have always assumed that Abel or Painter will take an inexpensive rotation spot eventually. Keeping below the draft penalty threshold the next couple of years is likely a goal. Good news is that they really should not need a compensation free agent the next couple of years.

[zambonir]

I would say it's more that they made a commitment to Harper and Turner to continue building a great team around them. Now the question is more whether the remaining vets (Schwarber, Castellanos, JT) can hold up their end over the next two years...and then whether Harper, Turner, Nola and Wheeler all can in '26 and '27.

[zambonir]

Keeping below the draft penalty threshold the next couple of years is likely a goal. Good news is that they really should not need a compensation free agent the next couple of years.

Yeah the only way they do that - or even sign a major free agent - is if they move on from Castellanos somehow, or give up on Bohm (of which there's certainly no indication). Or Marsh/Rojas.

Of course there is also a bit of a circular logic to being a big-spending, high-achieving post-season team. So long as you actually fulfill that potential, dropping 10 places is not as punitive as it would be for a lesser team (like, the 2023 Mets, for instance).

[bkox]

Zack Wheeler’s 3-year, $126 million extension is the highest annual salary for any contract extension ever.

— Buster Olney ( @Buster_ESPN ) March 4, 2024

[Aquapong]

I don’t think there’s any way we stay under the top luxury tax next season without some cuts. One could argue Soto and Bohm are getting too expensive for their production after this season, but we have to look at the alternatives available as well. We’d need to replace Straham and Hoffman already as Fa’s. It might be the year to move Schwarber or Castellanos. Maybe even JT if we've got someone else that can be at least a decent starter. Walker could also be a possibility.

On the other hand, it’s not my money. But if we keep signing these deals to aging players and lose draft order spots in doing it, we’re going to have to pay the piper eventually.

[zambonir]

Kind of a meaningless stat in that it only applies to AAV and extensions. Trout's contract was far bigger/longer, while Wheeler still got less than Scherzer and Verlander.

He may well have left money on the table by not hitting the open market (though obviously there's risk there on his side too).

The Phillies will only drop in the draft if they are over the third tier at the end of the season. I think they can still avoid it, and next year too. By 2026 some of the position prospects better be ready or at least not busts.

[allentown]

Kind of a meaningless stat in that it only applies to AAV and extensions. Trout's contract was far bigger/longer, while Wheeler still got less than Scherzer and Verlander.

Still a big chunk of $ and a very large annual salary. An extension the Phillies needed to do. Pitchers of Wheelers quality do seem to be effective at an older age.

The big $ problem is Castellanos. We will lose Schwarber first, then Castellanos and that's $45 million. Hopefully, we won't have an $8 million 'utility' guy who can't play SS, 3B, or CF on the payroll next season, so that's $53 million. Of course, the $45 million savings on OFs takes 3 full seasons to materialize. Realmuto's contract will be gone after 2025.

I don't get the complaints of Soto not being worth his salary. Ditto Bohm and Pache.