Wheeler signs extension

zambonir 2024-03-04 23:19:13 UTC #21

I don't think Soto is overpaid per se but his salary is based on service time and being a closer/All-Star for two years in Detroit. He was 0.0 WAR with a 4.62 ERA and wasn't trusted to pitch in the post-season. His best comp is still Alvarado but Alvarado was cheap while he developed into the 2022 version (a version that also got sent to AAA that very season). He's also a great LOOGY in a league that can't use them anymore.

Just as the Phillies are happy to pay $8 million for a declining bench vet they can pay Soto $7.5 million next year (and maybe he'll even be worth it) because that is just how they spend now. But it would be better if to fill both roles with cheaper or younger players.

Schwarb and Nick both only make $20 million.

Who's complaining about Pache? He'll be worth his salary for the next five years if he turns into an everyday or even regular 4th OF. But they have to figure out how to keep him first.

Bohm might not be worth his salary in 2026 is all. Or he could very much be worth if, if he actually improves. But right now he has yet to even have a 1.0 WAR season in his career. Last year, 0.4, though that was hurt by him playing 1B (poorly, just like 3B). If he adds power and the defense stays... let's call it neutral...he's fine.

We non-tendered Cesar Hernandez before his final arbitration award, and Cesar was a steady 1.8-2.0 WAR player his last three seasons. Of course the difference is we don't have a new 3B yet (and, haha, we didn't have a new 2B then as it turns out).

Of course these Phillies could also afford to pay Alec Bohm $11-12 million for 1.0 WAR whereas the 2020 Phillies couldn't dream of doing that for Cesar.

Meanwhile, I'd say you're underrating Castellanos. Don't get me wrong he'll always seem right on the cliff to me, it's already happened before and now he's only older. But he earned every dollar last year (including in the playoffs, he won a couple of games before he failed to help win a couple).

andyb 2024-03-04 23:26:04 UTC #22

The hope is that Aidan Miller is ready for 2026 I guess if there are concerns about Bohm being a sub 2 WAR player making too much money in 2026. I do worry with him that if the defense never gets to neutral, he is the type of player with good counting stats that really is not too valuable because of his lack of higher end power.

zambonir 2024-03-04 23:57:04 UTC #23

Yeah that sounds slightly early for Miller but not impossible. But either way, still just a hope for now.

And yeah - this is the year Bohm has to put it all together. He's never going to be great at 3B but it's not like he hasn't improved (it's just that he went from very bad to bad, while being well-liked and passing the eye test for many fans). Doesn't change the fact that most other 3B in MLB are better, and that he has to have more power to stick there as he ages and defense declines (and even more so if he becomes a 1B or DH).

Bohm's WAR last year was the same as Franco's in 2018, and their OPS and OPS+ were also similar (Franco a tick higher in the former & a tick lower in the latter). From there Maikel teased us for a few months in 2019 batting 8th (IIRC) and by 2020 Jean Segura was the Opening Day 3B (because of Didi. Bohm was great that year of course - much like Maikel was early in his career - while there wound up being plenty of room for Jean at 2B).

zambonir 2024-03-05 00:22:24 UTC #24

Wheeler would have taken just two years, Phillies insisted on three. He's hoping to retire and be with his kids. His agent also reps Charlie Morton and predicts this will be it for Wheels. But we shall see.

kmc1019 2024-03-05 22:15:53 UTC #25

Great Jayson Stark piece on the value of Wheeler's current contract (not extension) as the best free agent contract for a pitcher ever.

DOLLARS PER WIN ABOVE REPLACEMENT

Wheeler — $3.9 million
Scherzer — $4.7 million
Verlander — $5.0 million
Cole — $6.1 million

Aquapong 2024-03-06 12:21:53 UTC #26

Nevermind. I was trying to male a case for Cliffy, but he’s slot in right with Cole at $6.09 mil per Fwar. Halladay was at $5.71 mil per Fwar.

zambonir 2024-03-06 13:54:24 UTC #27

I think of the Cliff contract as being a largely a bust, though certainly not his fault. He only pitched on one post-season team (which is obviously both random and was more due to the declining offense), and only pitched well and for a full season in three of the five years (including not at all in Year 5). Plus his buyout was $12.5 million. $60 million for just 2.0 WAR (Fangraphs, BA was just 0.8) from 2014 to 2016.