Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

[DurhamBull]

Re: Didi

I think you have to make the QO, it's win-win. Either he takes it and you have him for a year and then can pursue one of those other guys if necessary, or he doesn't and you find some other one-year bridge to that free agent class (again, if necessary).

I agree. I feel like now is a time for conservative moves because (a) the team is unlikely to contend next year and (b) the Phils' current front office doesn't have a track record that makes me want to see them make bold moves. If Didi declines, the Phils get an extra pick and they can put someone inexpensive at SS. (I'd be fine seeing Galvis there again, for instance.)

[zambonir]

Galvis can catch the ball but arguably you could just move Segura back. His hitting would make up for the defense. But then you also need Kingery to come back around as your full-time 2B. Of course if Hoskins is out for two months they'll also need someone at 3B (assuming Bohm plays first).

[julio]

At 9 am tomorrow (Wednesday), these eight players become free agents - former Phillies:
• Arrieta, Jake
• Alvarez, Jose
• Hunter, Tommy
• Parker, Blake
• Workman, Brandon
• Realmuto, J.T.
• Gregorius, Didi
• Bruce, Jay

Qualifying offers, if any, must be announced by November 1st.

The roster will have 35 players remaining. The Phillies hold club options on three of these 35 players, which must be exercised or declined by November 1st:
• Neris, Hector
• Phelps, David
• Robertson, David

Knowing the Phillies, any announcements about QOs, and about club options, will likely be held until November 1st (but maybe they'll surprise us!).

Minor league free agents ("6-year" free agents) officially become fa on November 1st, as well. Beyond that, given the expected contraction of the minors, we should see a lot of minor-league releases in November.

After that, the tender deadline is December 2nd - and I think we can expect to see some arbitration-eligible Phillies non-tendered. Busy times.

[zambonir]

Phelps is the big question for now. Along with the Didi QO. The Phillies seem to get along well with Hector, all the beat writers expect the team to decline the option, at which point they can work out a new pre-arbitration deal (be it 1 or 2 years) or actually go to arbitration.

Robertson's buyout is $2 million, probably nothing to do there but pay it and see if he'll take a minor league deal down the line.

Now that the off-season is here, will be interesting to see if the GM search/rumor mill picks up before the holidays.

[fish]

The best “speaking truth to words” article written about the Phillies I can ever recall reading. I pray that Middleton reads it too!! Thank god a Phillies writer finally said it.
https://fusion.inquirer.com/phillies/phillies-general-manager-opening-candidates-eric-neander-jed-hoyer-josh-byrnes-20201028.html

[EDmuch]

The article does seem to simplify the whole process down to getting a competent CEO of baseball operations. And just maybe that is it!!!!

[allentown]

The Phillies have too many dinosaur fingers in every pie. McPhail was the wrong guy, but the Phillies have too many senior advisors. I think the article is correct that the Phillies ownership have wrongly convinced themselves that a December-May marriage of an old, removed from modern baseball baseball authority figure with a very inexperience young GM is the way to go and is helped by a half dozen discordant senior advisor voices. In reality, what this is is a refusal to place a bet on either the modern or the ancient, seeking a muddled compromise, which will allow most of the discordant advisor voices to feel their voice was heard. I also think there remains something very wrong with our analytics department, like they don't have enough baseball sense to include all the variables or take a common sense look at the reasonableness of the conclusion.

[bigegypt0417]

The Phillies have too many dinosaur fingers in every pie. McPhail was the wrong guy, but the Phillies have too many senior advisors.

I have always thought the senior advisor positions have been essentially ceremonial. I don't really believe they have much to do with the day to day running of the franchise.

[Jeff05]

Andy, I saw your question in The Athletic. While sharing your concern that the Phillies will be 'cheap', I imagined an alternative universe in which Middleton is in the process of burning down much of the organisation in readiness for someone else to rebuild the Phillies from the ground up. This would be consistent with his comments that the Phillies have traditionally been poor at player evaluation and development. Nevertheless, he's made it clear that it's the owner's call on the major free agents, and so he may be intentionally talking down the market in an effort to pick up Realmuto more affordably. Or, should I simply slap myself awake?!

[andyb]

There could definitely be some of that. This could be a historically bad free agent market because teams have no cash and lots of uncertainty. We also do not have a GM that might tell you that the compensation pick is worth something like $20-$25 million in expected WAR. I see this as risking the waste of $5 million for the benefit of $20 million. This is why the Segura trade was so bad because we were not valuing Crawford correctly.

I'd feel a lot better if Monday's headline was about Neander taking an unprecedented $30 million deal to be our President and GM.

[zambonir]

I have always thought the senior advisor positions have been essentially ceremonial. I don't really believe they have much to do with the day to day running of the franchise.

For the most part that's true, but there's always been at least one influential guy who had the GM and/or President's ear, or more influence over the president than the GM himself. It used to be Dallas Green, and now it's Gillick, who is also still minority owner. I don't reckon Charlie has that much influence - nor interest/ego in trying to have influence - but nevertheless, that's who Middleton went to when he decided to personally fire the hitting coach (never mind that Charlie also took the job).

Mostly things have changed because people died or fully retired. I think it would also be a good culture change if the Phillies just fired people and let them get on with their lives and enjoy their money - Charlie, Mackanin and Almaraz all became advisors originally simply because they had time left on their deals, which were presumably converted in to longer, part-time contracts.

Schmidt, Rollins, Bowa, all more ceremonial, and wrapped up with their other jobs (broadcasting, spring training and minor league instruction). Though my guess is Bowa was probably one of Salisbury's best sources for the complaints about Klentak.

Hopefully stories like Murphy's will put the pressure on Middleton, though you've also got guys like Salisbury and Brookover who are still more sympathetic to the old-timers.

[julio]

Update: I erroneously listed Blake Parker as eligible for free agency in my prior post. He's not; he didn't get enough ML service time this season to qualify. My bad.

[zambonir]

So we could actually tender him? That seems like a no-brainer if he was only making major league minimum this year.

[julio]

Parker's salary in 2018 and 2019 was $1.8 million (each year). He's "third year" arbitration eligible (more than 5 years ML service time). I would have to think that, notwithstanding his being non-tendered in the past, he would command something like $2 million in arbitration - maybe more? But that said, he could be a candidate for a tender, if they think he's worth that.

[zambonir]

Yeah, I wasn't sure if being non-tendered "re-set" his value in arbitration but I guess it's really the other way around. If they tender him it basically resets him back to where he was, or at least close to it.

An easy sign either way, if they are sure they want him. He was a good piece and has decent stuff but of course you never know. Unlikely he'd actually get to arbitration given how readily he worked with the Phillies this past off-season.

I think the big question mark is Alvarez. There's no reason to think his injury will hinder his performance (at least not at the game of baseball) but he also seems like another guy where you might just be grateful for what he gave you as a modestly priced guy exceeding expectations, rather than be disappointed by another higher-priced guy with higher expectations (a la Neshek and Hunter).

With the market being what it is they might get him cheaply or for one year though.

[andyb]

And it is free agent ranking time. Law has Realmuto 2nd and Gregorius 8th in his rankings. Recommends a 4-year deal for Realmuto though the market and supply and demand probably dictate more. He thinks the shortstop market is more crowded though and Didi won't get what he deserves (no explicit prediction there though a year ago he thought he was a 4/80 guy if he was back to his 2018 form. Semien is ranked 6th and Simmons 14th. Kim (the 25-year-old Korean) is 17th though he is not sure he sticks at SS and might be more of a super-utility guy (but a valuable one).

There are some potential buy-low bargains in there. Chris Archer at 39 could be intriguing if he is beyond his injury (thoracic outlet syndrome). Maybe Adam Eaton (32nd) on a 1-year deal to bolster the OF offense? It is clearly going to be a bargain-hunting year and if JT does not resign, one could potentially replace his value with 3 or 4 low cost signings. There are no other catchers on the top 40, so all options out there will be inexpensive though no better than platoon or defense-only guys (Zunino is the most valuable .150 hitter in the league).

Keith Law's Top 40 free agents of the MLB offseason

[andyb]

Decisions made on Morgan and Hembree. Would not be shocked if they gave Morgan a minor league deal with some incentives to rehab.

Phillies Outright Heath Hembree, Adam Morgan

[LoneStarPhan]

So we can officially put the Workman-Hembree trade in the column of historic bad deals and the now departed GM on the list of all time bad GMs.

[fish]

So we can officially put the Workman-Hembree trade in the column of historic bad deals and the now departed GM on the list of all time bad GMs.

Hard to believe he could outdo Ed Wade for bad reliever deals, but he did.

How the Phils handle Gregorius is going to be really telling about the near future of the franchise. An annual salary of 18.9 for him is too much, but a 1-year deal makes it a great deal. They just went through a rebuild where they didn't prioritize gaining draft picks (or really even accumulating prospect talent after the Giles trade). If Middleton really understands the need to build a player development system, then the move he MUST make is to QO to Didi. If that size contract is really a problem for the franchise during COVID revenue shortfalls, then the team isn't going to be able to improve itself in any meaningful way anyway so why bother worrying where else a portion of that money could be spent. If he accepts, great! if he doesn't, dump salary elsewhere.

[Philsmania]

Yeah, I wasn't sure if being non-tendered "re-set" his value in arbitration but I guess it's really the other way around. If they tender him it basically resets him back to where he was, or at least close to it.

An easy sign either way, if they are sure they want him. He was a good piece and has decent stuff but of course you never know. Unlikely he'd actually get to arbitration given how readily he worked with the Phillies this past off-season.

I think the big question mark is Alvarez. There's no reason to think his injury will hinder his performance (at least not at the game of baseball) but he also seems like another guy where you might just be grateful for what he gave you as a modestly priced guy exceeding expectations, rather than be disappointed by another higher-priced guy with higher expectations (a la Neshek and Hunter).

With the market being what it is they might get him cheaply or for one year though.

I know this is pure speculation but I wonder if Alvarez will continue to be effective due to the "sensitive" nature of his injury, kind of like how batters who get beaned in the face struggle to come back.