Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

Philsmania 2020-10-21 14:45:52 UTC #222

That was still probably premature. If they held off a year, they might have had pause. Granted no one could have foreseen the domestic violence arrest but there would have been another year to learn about his maturity and coachability issues.

EDmuch 2020-10-21 14:59:09 UTC #223

People seem to forget how poorly Herrera was playing be fore the DV incident.

andyb 2020-10-21 15:10:30 UTC #224

But Herrera generally played well before he signed that contract and was at an age where one could think he would improve or at least maintain that performance. The decision had a bad result, but was not a bad decision (unless there were other indicators about Herrera's behavior that they ignored - there is no evidence of that).

The dollars in the Herrera contract are not what is killing them. It is not getting good performance from another player that is supposed to be in their prime. Good teams are built on players in their prime (age 26-29) producing beyond their contract. Any time a team has a chance to lock up a player where the value could be a significant plus (like with Kingery), they should do that.

mdougherty12 2020-10-21 16:45:21 UTC #225

I find it interesting that every player mentioned in the article has been somewhat to very disappointing in recent years. Dexter Fowler has been a predictably bad signing for St. Louis. Inciarte’s performance has dropped off the table the last 2 years. Kiermaier has maintained decent value due to elite defense, but his bat disappeared after 2017.

zambonir 2020-10-21 17:27:29 UTC #226

Yeah the contract was still not terrible. It wasn't long and the low AAV meant he could be an adequate bench player, or a tradeable player, even if he didn't work out at the end (while the options years were extremely team-friendly).

But yes, he was also just terrible, and then he became unplayable/untradeable, so now it's truly wasted money.

It's still baffling to me how his defense went so bad. But then, it's also baffling that he was an MVP candidate for three months of 2018 and someone you could DFA on merit for the next three months. That's why he still would have gotten starts in 2019 if not for the incident but it's clearly the combination of his poor play and bad PR that has him where he is today. You do kind of have to wonder if it's on him, i.e. his preparation and focus, since the talent was and still should be there.

andyb 2020-10-21 17:51:10 UTC #227

Whether it was from being out of shape or being slightly hurt, Herrera's statcast sprint numbers did take a tumble.

From 2015 on they were 27.9, 27.3, 27.3, 26.6, 26.7. Percentiles went from 74% down to the mid-40s in 2018 and 2019. The contract was signed when he was in the middle of those two 27.3 numbers. He never had great speed in CF but seemed to have good instincts. Then when his speed dipped a bit below average (for everyone, not CFs), he just became a below average fielder.

zambonir 2020-10-21 18:38:01 UTC #228

And the offensive decline was just as notable. From 2015 on, OPS+ went 111, 109, 103, 94, 63. Those first two years his bat seemed good enough that he'd end up in LF once Moniak became the starting CF (back when we assumed he would).

In her Q&A this week Meghan at the Athletic said the Phillies should just release him, it's their prerogative to not want him back for PR reasons (even if that's technically against the letter of the policy), he's done everything required of him, let him get a fresh start if someone wants to give it to him. But they probably still dream of including his contract in a trade, even if it's just to offset taking back someone else's dead money

Philsmania 2020-10-21 20:43:19 UTC #229

As I have said before, with no phans in the stands, this year was probably the perfect opportunity to try to work Herrera back into things. If he did good things, the phans wouldn't be foaming at the mouth to boo him when they did return. Makes me wonder if their refusal to even consider him came from higher up than Klentak and was possibly the result of Middleton decreeing that he will never play for them again.

Even before the arrest, it is bizarre that he just dropped off a cliff--offensively and defensively--in the middle of 2018. There were some here who thought Mackanin was unfairly hard on him, benching him at times and offering some public--but not particularly biting--criticism of him. Yet, he completely unraveled when Kapler managed him with his more sensitive approach.

zambonir 2020-10-21 23:56:45 UTC #230

Even without fans in the stands, the media scrutiny would have been substantial if he'd gotten out of Allentown. Would have been pretty easy to have a protest that outnumbered the Phandemic Crew too. Their refusal to let him play spring training games or be in the 60-man pool suggests that yes, they simply don't want to ever see him in the uniform again. And at the same time, continuing to act as if he's both worthless and useless preserves their "baseball reasons" argument.

If they can't sneak him into a trade or won't even give him a spring training invite this year they should just cut him; I'm fine with them not wanting him back on principle and obviously he's not actually being denied a chance to make a living, but just let him go off to Asia or the Atlantic League or another team if they'll have him.

BostonRoss 2020-10-23 19:12:16 UTC #231

Posting it for general interest, but I don't think the article makes much sense (and cites no sources). If the Yankees re-sign DJ Lemahieu, then Gleyber Torres has to be the shortstop. The article says that "Cashman and the Yankees know they have an infield problem after watching Gleyber Torres lead all American League shortstops with nine errors." But Gregorius had seven errors himself. Replacing Torres with Gregorius makes no sense given their ages and salaries.

The article thinks the "snag" is that the Angels "have interest" in Gregorius because Andrelton Simmons is a free agent. If the Yankees were interested in improving defense, they should just sign Simmons.

In any case, time to get the qualifying offer ready for Didi.

zambonir 2020-10-23 19:40:38 UTC #232

Nobody seems to have a clue about the Yankees, some people think they might not even keep Lemahieu, and they also want to trade Torres. I seriously doubt they are interested in Didi on a multi-year deal.

I hope we don't go cheap on the QO. Seems impossible to justify given our need for picks if nothing else.

andyb 2020-10-23 20:06:33 UTC #233

I would not be shocked if all the free agent shortstops sign one year deals or at most 2 years. They are all flawed in some way and the market will not be kind to them. Beyond the top half dozen free agents there will be lots of 1-year deals.

zambonir 2020-10-23 21:16:31 UTC #234

This is why I'm concerned the Phillies won't give the QO though. They don't want him to take it, especially if it further reduces their available cash for other things (from JT on down). Best scenario would be to get him signed to a two-year deal before the QO even happens, if his agent sees a tough market (which would be even tougher for him with the QO attached). Otherwise they might just move on and find themselves an $8 million shortstop.

zambonir 2020-10-23 23:52:18 UTC #235

Seems notable that it is mostly pro scouts: the guys who help decide who to trade and who to trade for (at both the minor and major league level). It's also the only department where a Wade/Gillick/Amaro-era employee remains in charge (along with Sal, technically).

fish 2020-10-22 13:19:39 UTC #236

I'm of two minds on the state of Middleton's thinking right now:
1) he doesn't seem either too interested or too confident in small market guys doing really innovative things (Rays, Indians, Athletics). There are worse options than Piccollo, but to me he's cut from the mold of Jack Zduriencik, who was good with draft stuff but imperfect with the rest of GM'ing. I would bet the only guy he feels really confident in is Theo, who's done (at times) what those successful small market teams did in large markets.

2) He intends to cut payroll and some unpopular decisions are about to be made. He's going to leave Ned Rice in place to get through that so that a new GM doesn't have to fall on that sword. Plus, in a year revenue futures should be clear to pay an established guy like Theo the 10-15 million a year it will take to get him.

Squire 2020-10-23 18:33:44 UTC #237

Phillies do not renew the contracts of 7 scouts:

Dave Hollins
Pete Mackanin
Howie Freiling
Jessie Levis
Jeff Harris
Mike Garcia - Amateur scout covering parts of CA and NV
Chris Knabenshue - Amateur scout covering parts of AZ, CO, NM, UT

Wait 'Til Who Knows When (Certainly not 2021!) ... (Winter 20-21 Off-Season Realism)

zambonir 2020-10-27 19:14:43 UTC #238

Re: Didi

Gregorius seems unlikely to accept a qualifying offer. He just played on a one-year deal and had a strong season that merits a four-year contract in the vicinity of $14-16M annually. It’s unknown whether that offer will materialize in this uncertain free-agent period, with MLB’s 30 teams losing a combined $3 billion because of the pandemic. That uncertainty could make accepting the qualifying offer more reasonable to Gregorius, but it still might not be enough.

A major consideration in his decision will have to be next year’s shortstop class, which is loaded with Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez. Gregorius is a distant sixth in that group. This offseason, he and Marcus Semien are the top two free-agent shortstops.

I think you have to make the QO, it's win-win. Either he takes it and you have him for a year and then can pursue one of those other guys if necessary, or he doesn't and you find some other one-year bridge to that free agent class (again, if necessary). If you haven't been able to keep JT those SS free agents will be even more of a factor. But actually signing Didi to a three-year deal is a distant third or even fourth of the possible options.

Lindor's probably available in trade right now but Phils have neither the depth, nor it seems, the money to extend him quickly. But again, if JT gets away....

andyb 2020-10-27 19:45:25 UTC #239

I asked that question to Meghan of the Athletic in the comments about her 40-man roster article and her answer seemed to imply the Phillies are not even thinking about it. Yes it would involve paying Didi $5 million more than he is worth for 1 year, but I agree that it is probably greater than 50-50 that he declines. He can always sign a back loaded 3-year deal with a team that has cash flow concerns (and most teams will not have AAV luxury tax concerns this year).

The Phillies, even under Middleton, have often taken a very transactional view to salaries, especially with regards to the total team payroll. Last year is a classic example, but this goes back to spending international money (like with our ill-fated Seung Lee and Il Kim signings) as a direct reaction to losing the expected bonus to be paid for a draft pick they lost.

I fear the Phillies will be cheap here. They probably think they can get Didi or Simeon on a 1 year/$12-$14 million deal if they play hardball.

andyb 2020-10-27 19:56:22 UTC #240

Looked at the MLBTR chat and they answered a question about the best non-Hendriks bullpen arms available and the group had Treinen and Trevor Rosenthal in it. Not sure I am interested in an overpriced Treinen or a risky Rosenthal. The other name they mentioned has a Phillies pedigree though and might be a cheap late inning alternative:

He has a pretty fresh arm since he has been a reliever after missing time for TJ surgery. He misses bats. Maybe he liked his time in the Phillies organization? He'd be a guy I would give a 3-year deal to and in this market it might be more like a 3/$18 million type of deal.

zambonir 2020-10-27 21:35:39 UTC #241

Rosenthal was a great minor league signing, getting him while he's hot, not so much.

Heck, we might want to buy low on Jansen.

Meghan also thought the Phillies would be pretty aggressive about their non-tenders - punt on Phelps, Hembree maybe, don't even bother with Morgan and Seranthony. I would think you keep Seranthony given the limited cost, but understand the thinking there too.