The New Unending Flyers thread

zambonir 2023-04-14 13:08:00 UTC #41

But why would you want to do that? They should be signing older players to 1 or 2 year deals to just help fill the holes/mentor young players/be flippable. Wait 'til next year to commit to a new longer-term FA.

Impossible to clean house completely (like you say they are stuck with a handful of d-men at least for now) nor do I think they should trade just anyone over 23 but you have to consider moving at least one higher-value player (TK?) proactively if you know you're not going to extend them in a year or two. Atkinson likely goes in March. Couturier, no way to know if he'll be a #3 Center or traded or injured again two years from now. But if he comes back strong that just makes it more temping to trade him, rather than pencilling him in as a Top Six guy in 2026.

The three-player limit on taking on salary means you could theoretically trade Hayes, D'Angelo and Risto but you won't necessarily free up enough money to truly upgrade. But that's okay. I do not think the team should be actively trying to have the most shots in the lottery next year, but they also shouldn't finish out of it, and better to be 10th than 16th.

Aquapong 2023-04-14 13:39:33 UTC #42

Anyone know what is actually going on with DeAngelo? Healthy scratch for the last 5 games. It sounds like he might be given away for a bag of practice pucks in the offseason.

I would try to retain some $ to increase the return for a Hayes deal, but if we can’t get something like at least a second round pick or a promising prospect in return, I’d just keep him. Same thing with Provorov. I’d love to ditch Risto’s contract as well, but I’m not sure who would be fool enough to take him.

phillychuck 2023-04-14 14:04:06 UTC #43

What is the realistic turn-around time in hockey? How many teams go from bottom Fifth of the league to top fifth in one season? Three seasons? That is the most important question...what is the time-scale for a rebuild. In football it's one or two seasons, in basketball it's one season (with a superstar draft pick plus a top tier free agent), in baseball it can be 5 years or more. I just don't know the answer for hockey.

zambonir 2023-04-14 14:04:22 UTC #44

I don't think there's any mystery, he's in the doghouse with both Torts and the assistants who have been filling in as head coach. Doesn't exactly help his trade value but it was limited to begin with.

I don't think the Hayes/Tortorella dynamic is repairable either. At minimum Hayes wants a bigger role that he can only get somewhere else. For sure, pay the $ to get a better return but with three seasons left on his contract at the full cap hit something more than a bag of pucks but less than a second-rounder would also be fine. You can't wait for the deadline or any future point when he could get injured or decline. I'm afraid the only way to get anything more for him is to make it 2018 again.

zambonir 2023-04-14 14:15:01 UTC #45

Tangentially Flyers-related. I do take some consolation in knowing that Hexy didn't stick it to the Flyers at his new job, and likely wouldn't have done any better than Fletcher even if much of the failures were systemic in both cases. He's expected to get canned today.

LegoDoom 2023-04-14 14:49:48 UTC #46

I don't know this answer, but in football all you need is a QB. Basketball all you need is a superstar. In hockey and baseball where players don't get enough playing time I would think it would take longer. 3-5 years seems right. The Flyers really don't have a ton of talent. Even if they can make the playoffs in 3 years I'm not sure they can really compete. Signing an expensive player when they can't really compete just pushes that back. The team could really have used to be bad this year and hopefully draft Fantilli..Even Michkov would be a good pick as it would strengthen the rebuild since he can't come over right away.

zambonir 2023-04-14 15:33:43 UTC #47

I think they can make the playoffs in three years and remain on an upward trajectory from there; I just don't think icing a more competitive team in '23-'24 does anything to enhance that (for lack of a better word) process. But neither does a full tank. Carter Hart is probably still worth more to the Flyers over the next 5-7 years than the trade return on him is, especially if you also tank but then don't win the lottery.

They really missed out this year not only because there was no point in being as "good" as they were but because of the talent atop this particular draft. Of course they also wound up taking a big whiff the last time they had lottery luck.

Next season they'll have a more realistic sense of who is actually going to contribute in three years - both the prospects and younger guys worth keeping, as well as Couts.

It's funny how similar they are to the Phillies, lots of us could see a path where the Phillies had to go full tank again over the last three years (there was talk of trading JT as recently as last year, and Wheeler the year before IIRC) but Briere is not inheriting the same thing Dombrowski did.

Docs 2023-04-14 16:25:19 UTC #48

I think the number of years for development after a draft is a key factor in the how long to rebuild question. In the NFL your high draft picks either contribute right away or should contribute in their second season. In the NBA, young players impact the game sooner. In the NHL and MLB - it takes years for players to develop - very few 18 year olds make the jump after they are drafted. I think the difference between the NHL and MLB is that a player's ceiling in the NHL is fairly proportional to their draft position, which makes missing on a first rounder a high crime.

The Edmonton Oilers are an interesting case study in that you cannot build just through the draft - lots of high picks including four top picks and the best player in the NHL, and outside of the 2016-2017 season they didn't make the playoffs consistently until 2019-2020 season.
Draft Year (first round selection)
2007 (6)
2007 (21)
2008 (22)
2009 (10)
2010 (1)
2011 (1)
2012 (1)
2013 (7)
2014 (3)
2015 (1) - McDavid
2016 (4)
2017 (22) Playoffs
2018 (10)
2019 (8)
2020 (14) - Playoffs
2021 (22) - Playoffs
2022 (32) - Playoffs

League Finish each year
2007 - 25th
2008 - 19th
2009 - 21st
2010 - 30th
2011 - 30th
2012 - 29th
2013 - 24th
2014 - 28th
2015 - 28th
2016 - 29th
2017 - 8th
2018 - 23rd
2019 - 25th
2020 - 12th
2021 - 11th
2022 - 11th

Docs 2023-04-14 16:35:45 UTC #49

If you consider 2020 first round pick Tyson Foerster is looking to make the NHL roster in the 2023-2024 season, and 2019 first rounder Cam York finally became a regular in the 2022-2023 season, its probably 3 years after drafting to make the NHL. Trading the 2021 first for Risto was not great. 2022 5th overall Cutter Gauthier should help in a year or two.

Big misses:
2016 - 22nd - German Rubstov
2016 - 36th - Pascal Laberge
2017 - 2nd Nolan Patrick
2018 - 19th - Jay O'Brien
2021 - Trading #14 to Sabres for Risto
2022 - Trading 5th pick in second round
2023 - Trading second rounder
2024 - Trading second rounder

zambonir 2023-04-14 17:06:22 UTC #50

This is another reason I don't spend to the cap on longer deals over the next two years. They are going to have to make up for some of those 2021-2023 losses in 2025 or 2026, but don't need to improve those holes yet.

At least 2018 was still an okay draft (Farabee ahead of O'Brien, plus Ersson) 2019 and 2020 had some other guys too.

The "keep trying to win" strategy might have worked if everyone was healthy (and you can include Lindblom and even Patrick in that) but most of Fletcher's signings weren't good either. And only got worse as he mortgaged more future for the likes of Risto and D'Angelo.

I'm sure Briere and Torts will have a few surprise trades. Not so much to get rid of guys as to bring in guys they want/like, even if it's only short-term/role player types.

xogfog 2023-04-14 17:11:02 UTC #51

Bottom line, the Flyers were only a truly successful team when there was no salary cap. Since the salary cap, the Flyers have handed out horrible contracts over and over and the only way it gets better is when they stop doing that. Couple that with the only two times they finished as high as 2nd in the draft lottery, the first time they missed out on Kane and got JVR and the second time, it was a lousy draft class and Patrick ended up being injured and never lived up to 2nd pick status.

Otherwise, since the cap, they've been a middle of the pack team for a time, making the playoffs as low seeds, to now just being at the bottom of the league. Since Lindros, the Flyers have not drafted or acquired any generational players. No Stamkos, McDavid, Kane, Ovechkin, etc... They've been just good enough to not get the top pick and not good enough drafters and managers to build a team like the Bruins. They aren't willing to be the worst team in the league and totally rebuild through the draft the way the Devils and Oilers have. Hextall had the right idea, he just didn't execute, and wasn't given the proper time to finish the job and he was fired because the old guard didn't want to have a losing team. So maybe this new regime can reset the paradigm, but it could take years because of the bad contracts that will be hard to move.

LegoDoom 2023-04-14 18:32:25 UTC #52

I am really not seeing the point you are trying to make. Yes, it takes years for a MLB or NHL to develop because they are 18 when they are drafted. If that is the case, then you already know what you have with Tippett. Do you know what the Oilers have with McDavid? One of the best players in the last few decades.

LegoDoom 2023-04-14 18:55:15 UTC #53

I'm kind of partial to Giroux and Couts... and they were unfortunate not to land Kane. The Patrick pick was also unfortunate.

Docs 2023-04-14 19:46:48 UTC #54

well - it didnt' have anything to do with evaluating Tippett or McDavid.

phillychuck said he wasn't sure how long an NHL build would take so I was trying to say a few things. One - you don't get immediate returns even from your top NHL picks, and two - you cannot build just from the draft as the oilers had tried with many many top picks for 8 straight years. You have to draft well & compliment your picks with good signings.

It's also interesting that the Oilers landed the top generational player in 2015, and subsequently missed the playoffs 3 of the next 4 years. It gives you an idea what it takes to build a team and puts some perspective on draft expectations.

Docs 2023-04-14 21:33:49 UTC #55

And I guess its worth pointing out that they had the top pick in the draft a mind boggling 3 times in a row and it didn't help. Tanking to build exclusively through the draft won't work - although it will be interesting to see if Arizona has success with their strategy of collecting picks - as they had 3 first rounders last year, 2 first rounders this year, and 4 seconds in both 2024 and 2025. If you are going to build through the draft, you need to stockpile firsts and seconds, and as has been discussed, the Flyers don't even have many players under contract that would return firsts and seconds.

LegoDoom 2023-04-14 21:39:39 UTC #56

If your point is that we shouldn't give up on a 24 year old Tippett and not want McDavid, then I would like to hear that argument.

Also, Arizona is fine... taking on contracts and being given picks back in return.

VoteForKalas 2023-04-14 22:19:44 UTC #57

Agreed, Hextall has not done a good job there. Resigning all 3 of those guys was a mistake especially when it was already obvious the rest of the team, outside of Guentzel, is mediocre and needed to be restocked. For example, watching Jeff Carter skate was bad enough this season to scar anyone. I would have signed Crosby, but probably let Malkin and Letang walk. As soon as Fleury left, the era was over, but it is very hard for any GM or franchise to admit that and turn the page without the bottom falling out around them.

Docs 2023-04-15 00:58:09 UTC #58

I guess you are out of luck because as I said before, that's not my point and my posts have nothing to do with those two players.

LegoDoom 2023-04-15 02:58:22 UTC #59

I guess I missed the point. You think Tippett is too young to give up on, say that you can't build through the draft and point to the Oilers.. who took Nurse, Draisaitl, and McDavid it consecutive drafts... and then pointed out that they made the playoffs in 4 of the next 6 years after drafting McDavid.

Either you need years to develop players, which means Tippett will be irrelevant by the time the team can develop the rest of their prospects or you should build through the draft.

I will concede that you need to build a good team, but they drafted a lot better than the Flyers and went from 28th to 8th in McDavid's 2nd year.

Docs 2023-04-15 12:24:00 UTC #60

my posts followed the question about how long it takes to build an NHL team, which I have already said, and I thought it was interesting looking at a team with lots of high draft picks for lots of years in a row to see how long it took them to build their roster to a consistent playoff team, which included landing the best player in ten years. And if you go with the conclusion that its 3+ years before draft picks contribute, I pointed out the vacuum of incoming talent due to recent missed picks and trades that will need to be added to the Flyers build time. this is not jazz - i'm not asking you to listen to the notes i'm not playing.

I've said multiple times that my posts are not about Tippett or McDavid. I said that McDavid was a generational player, easily the best draft pick in a decade. There is not a parallel universe where I wouldn't want McDavid and I don't know how you drew that conclusion. you are still going to be missing the point if you try to spin this about Tippett or McDavid and I don't know how to help you other than to say for the third time, this is not about Tippett and this is not about McDavid.

My posts were in response to this post, which i have already stated:

I want the flyers to have good draft picks, when they are in the lottery I want the pick as high as possible. I don't want them trading firsts and seconds for players that don't change the franchise and require an immediate salary cap draining contract. I want the flyers to get younger. i don't want the flyers to follow the bobby clarke pre-cap era strategy of signing 30 year old vets to albatross contracts because with the salary cap the flyers cannot out muscle teams with big contracts. This has been the franchise's biggest problem since the salary cap era, they didn't adapt to the salary cap. The Flyers need someone that manages the salary cap properly - they need to hand out contracts that don't hamstring the team. They need to look beyond one season when building the roster.

I think that an NHL team needs a balanced roster of young talent on manageable contracts with vets that are on their second/third contract, and I don't think you hand out those contracts until you have that young core established. If you have a vet at 7m per year for 3 years, and a contributing rookie at 1m per year for 3 years, then between the two players you have 4m cap hit for 3 years (but the vet needs to be worth 7m). If you forget about the young players on rookie contracts part, then your depth pieces end up being below average vets filling holes. I don't want that. The vets need to be signed at reasonable contracts - many players will be attractive at the right price and a mistake at the wrong price.