The New New Unending Flyers thread

[LegoDoom]

I am well aware. Trade up to #2 or #4.... 4 depending on who is available. Otherwise, it's Eklund.

[jimbomill]

Nolan Patrick, who wasn't a terrible pic

Hindsight and 20/20 vision ... with his health issues, he turned out to be a terrible pick. Of the Top 5 taken in that 2017 draft, he was the worst of the 5.

[LegoDoom]

Nolan Patrick, who wasn't a terrible pic

Hindsight and 20/20 vision ... with his health issues, he turned out to be a terrible pick. Of the Top 5 taken in that 2017 draft, he was the worst of the 5.

I know. At the time it was perfectly fine.

[phillychuck]

Ley me clarify--AF pointed out all the flyers picks from 23 up. I was honestly asking what the conversion rate is on those later picks in the NHL. I know it's not that good in the NBA, and pretty decent in the NFL. I don't kn ow the answer in the NHL.

[zambonir]

Yeah, that's how I read it, you were wondering what the 23 or 25 might get them.

There is actually data:

Success Rates of NHL Draft Picks - The Hockey Writers NHL Entry Draft Latest...

[LegoDoom]

I had a post ready to go, but G was picked at 22

[Austinfan]

It will, b/c I expect that deal for a top center prospect.
Zavragin is the goalie of the future, ETA 2027.
19 years old and starting for SKA St Petersburg (I think they're Putin's favorite team), the same FO that decided Michkov wasn't good enough for them.

Odds from one chart I found:
21-25: 400 games 44%, Allstar 16%
31-40: 20.7%/6.7%
41-50: 22.7%/4.6%
61-75: 18.3%/4.0%
Odds drop precipitously after the 3rd rd, which is why I don't see any reason to trade useful vets for 4th or 5th rd picks, unless they in their walk year and blocking a prospect (i.e something is better than nothing).

[andyb]

Hockey definitely has a different success ratio than the NBA though it is deeper in part because the rosters require 20 skaters a night versus 8-10 starters and rotation players. Much more chance for 2nd round picks to make it because of that. Counter that by drafting 18 year olds and it is a little like drafting HS baseball players and development is varied.

So you get 5-10 picks at the top of the first round that look like sure things (but are closer to 50-50) and then the back end for the first round is more of a 1 in 4 proposition. It is good to have more picks of course, but hard to develop all of them at the same time. Good hockey teams generally have a bunch of 22-24 year olds that take a step forward simultaneously but it is just hard to get that group to develop at once. Probably why the best teams will always have a mix of veterans around the younger players. A stable development environment matters and the Flyers just have not created that in recent years.

[zambonir]

When's the last time a Top 5 pick was traded?

[LegoDoom]

Zavragin is the goalie of the future, ETA 2027.
19 years old and starting for SKA St Petersburg (I think they're Putin's favorite team), the same FO that decided Michkov wasn't good enough for them.

Your contention is that franchise that turned away an NHL stud is a reason that another player is good?

[zambonir]

Haha touche. But I'm not talking about a long-term goalie. I'm taking about the two-year veteran they are going to end up overpaying for (if they're lucky they can include one of the two current Eastern Europeans in the deal) because the goalie market is so tight.

[Austinfan]

Hopefully, Briere continues to be patient, goes with Ersson/Fedotov, drafts a goalie this summer, has Bjarnason at LHV. At worst, picks up a veteran for cheap.

A successful rebuild is less about tanking and more about patiently "trust the process," accumulate young prospects and draft picks, invest in development and wait for the right deal(s) to come along.
Top 5x5 scorers this season:
Pastrnak #25
Kucherov #58
Hagel #159
Crosby #1
Panarin UDFA
MacKinnon #1
Draisaitl #3
Robertson #39
Connor #17

It helps to draft high, helps even more to draft well.

[zambonir]

I would say a modestly priced veteran goalie who is capable of being a tandem/mentor is the way to go. But if the price isn't modest, they aren't going to open the season with Fedotov. Not only are they trying to make the playoffs next year, but (this was the subject of an Inquirer column today) the shaky goaltending undermines both the personal and team development. As you have noted this is a pretty good roster at even-strength; stronger goaltending (including improvement from Ersson due to not having to carry such a load, physically and symbolically) and a better PP (which they've had under Shaw) along with other tweaks makes the post-season a completely realistic goal, even if they don't land their fantasy controllable young 1 or 2 C.

[zambonir]

Robertson #39

That 2017 draft was so insane for the Stars. Same year we got Patrick at 2 (and Tippet went 10) they took Heiskanen at 3, Oettinger at 26 and then Robertson 39. That's what we need from Flahr this year!

Poehling was picked 25 that year. Flyers are his third team since then. Probably a pretty good example of the most common good outcome around then, just a credible NHL player, neither a bust nor a star.

[bigegypt0417]

If they had a good goalie this year we'd be talking about the Flyers in the playoffs.

I may be overselling that but it seems like their major failing was awful goaltending.

In those stretches where a goalie got hot, they won some games.

If i was a betting man I'd say the only pick currently the Flyers will use will be the top pick and the rest can be used to maneuver up and down the draft.

[Docs]

I read a report that believes Kolosov will return to the KHL and won’t be coming back to North America.

[zambonir]

Kurz in heavy off-season fantasy mode here, for instance: he starts off by suggesting that instead of an offer sheet, they could trade the first first-rounder and Ryan Poehling for both Mason McTavish and G John Gibson (who has two years left on his deal but is expensive.

Potential offer-sheet targets for the Flyers — plus 3 Flyers who might get...

FA goalies mentioned in his previous article: Frederik Andersen, Jake Allen, Ilya Samsonov, David Rittich and James Reimer. Plus Gibson and Demko as possible trades. (There is a much longer list if you are trading, though more veteran back-ups than potential starters.)

[Docs]

I think they are considering bringing Hart back if he clears his legal issues, based on things briere has said and hasn’t said

[zambonir]

I think he said anything is possible, not much more than that.

I seriously doubt that will happen. Even if he's not convicted of a crime the media coverage is likely to be ugly, and even if someone is not legally convicted of a crime, that doesn't mean they didn't do something awful. A situation where someone is truly falsely accused (or apparently wasn't involved at all like the punter) is rare. There's also still the possibility of league discipline, though Bettman has certainly not shown any NFL-like tendencies there.

But forget all that: what would you even be getting, after nearly two years out of action, and at what price/term? Will the case even be fully resolved by training camp? And if neither of those things are concerns, will the Flyers even be his choice?

[phillychuck]

The reason we have a legal system is to determine how people who are accused of crimes should be treated by society. A person who is accused of a crime and then not convicted (charges dropped, whatever) should not be disadvantaged by that accusation. That goes for Carter Hart just as it did for OJ Simpson, just as it should have for Jean ValJean. In a society that is based on the law we don't brand people with Scarlett "Accusation" letters, they get their day in court, or at least their day in front of the prosecutors, and then their life moves on. You are not forever a thief or a murderer just because you were accused. JMHO.