The New New Unending Flyers thread

[LegoDoom]

And it's done.

[Docs]

With yesterdays loss to Montreal, the flyers are now officially eliminated from a playoff position

I just saw that this is the fifth consecutive season and ties the franchise record for most consecutive seasons missing the playoffs.

[bkeich]

With yesterdays loss to Montreal, the flyers are now officially eliminated from a playoff position

I just saw that this is the fifth consecutive season and ties the franchise record for most consecutive seasons missing the playoffs.

That record is in grave trouble. Getting a better coach will help, but the lack of talent on this team is just shocking.

[Austinfan]

Because forwards who score 20+ goals year after year are rare.
And $6M isn't much anymore, 6.3% next season and rapidly declining as cap rises.
When JVR signed his deal, it was 8.8% of the Cap.
The two years before his deal, he had 23 and 25 ES goals, next two years 22 and 18 (prorated)
Tippett, 19, 23, 19 in his three years as a Flyer.

Tippett is actually playing better this season, though scoring a little less, mostly b/c he's been moved around the lineup and has struggled to settle in. He's a better passer, probably the best on the team at zone entries. Erratic defensively but not a black hole.

Average of GAR/xGAR (Evolving Hockey)
Tippett last three seasons, 10.9, 8.0, 9.1
JVR, 2 years before deal, 12.9, 13.0, 2 years after, 5.1, 10.2 (last three seasons were much worse)

Tippett still has room to improve, JVR was signed off his peak seasons.

[Austinfan]

That's a gross exaggeration. At even strength:
xGF 52.18% (8), HDCF 53.76% (5)
That's despite a slow start and a finish where they traded 3 starting forwards and Risto was on IR.

Now they have holes, the PP is a disaster, the goalies even worse
all strength (GA - xGA)/60 = +0.64
How bad were the goalies? Next worse teams, Pens +0.44, Nash +0.39, BUF +0.32, San Jose +0.27.
ES scoring ranking: medians (48, 144, 240)
TK (27), MIchkov (34),
Brink (91), Couts (98), Tippett (140), Foerster (143)
Cates (173), Poehling (195), Pelletier (266, but only 44 games)

They could use one more top 6 scorer, ideally first line quality (top 48).
Barkey is one to watch, started slow due to mono, then 1.9 ppg his last 37 games, now has 12 points in his first 4 PO games. Sort of a Brink clone, smaller, agile scorer with great vision and playmaking skills.
Bump is leading scorer on Western Michigan, in the Frozen four playing next weekend. Bigger LW.

All the D-men are above replacement, biggest problem with Risto out they're awfully undersized and struggle against physical, forechecking teams. I think they wanted Dickinson, not Buium, and went with Jett b/c centers are so hard to find.

[Austinfan]

I've been watching the prospects in the end of the season/post-season. So far:

Jett was thrown into the LHV lineup, playing 20+ minutes a night, without much chance to practice. Next two weeks they only play on weekends, so he'll get practice time, I'll watch to see if he improves.
Raw on offense, defers too much, doesn't take over and drive play, though he shows flashes where he can skate with puck at high speed. Passes too much, should shoot more, and is still figuring out smaller windows.
But great defensive anticipation, similar to Cates and younger Couts, I think he has Selke potential with instincts, size and speed on defense. Also good on PK and faceoffs.

Ciernak has only played one game, so too early.

Grebenkin is interesting to watch, big but doesn't really play a PF game yet, only 21 and is listed at 6'3 209, so time to fill out. Does have some snarl to him. Agile skater for his size with some shake and bake and good playmaker, gets knocked off balance too much. Defense is a work in progress. Might need some skate coaching and another year in the LHV, but has top 6 potential.

Gendron is undersized and still getting bounced around, improved defensively, no longer a black hole. But his calling card is a plus wrist shot and ability to find open spots. Needs to add strength and improve offensive vision, shoots too much and doesn't look for teammates.

Wisdom has been meh for two years, but has turned it on the second half of this season. Still only 22, future is probably 4th line mucker like Hathaway who can pot a few goals.

Grans could probably play for the Flyers right now, has improved his skating and has an all around package.
Samson is still raw, only 21, but has improved his skating, can shoot but shoots too much, needs to learn when and how.
McDonald is a bigger version of Seeler, defense first, good skater, may need one more year to polish his fundamentals.

Barkey is finishing the season playing at an elite level, as discussed above, Brink type.

Bonk isn't putting up big numbers b/c he's paired with Dickinson, the stay at home guy, but plays big minutes in all situations and is the keystone of the defense.

Bump didn't jump out at me, he's a solid forward with good size, decent skating, plus shot, but nothing really special. To be fair, he plays in a conservative system without great offensive talent around him.

Sotheran hasn't been signed yet (I expect that after he's finished his POs) but he's the key player on defense for his WHL team. Big, mobile, can shoot from the point, isn't afraid to be aggressive on offense.

[LegoDoom]

I don't think I mentioned jvr, so your post seems like targeting.

Tippett seems like a perfect example of a lot of talent, but doesn't know how to play the game.

[Austinfan]

My point was simply what teams pay for goal scoring forwards.

As a % of the Cap, Tippett is getting far less than JVR for somewhat similar performance before their new contracts (JVR had more PP goals, but Tippett is on a team with a dysfunctional PP).

Tippett is a flawed player, but he's getting paid like a median 2nd line forward, which he is.
Projected cap:
2025-26: $95.5M
2026-27: $104M
2027-28: $113.5M
With the cap going up, top forwards are getting $13-15M, 1st line, $10-12, second line $6-10M.
So Sanheim, Tippett and TK's deals are going to be bargains going forward, and Couts' contract suddenly seems reasonable.

[Docs]

Bruins-Sabres play today.

Let's hope for OT!

Sabres up 5-3 & Blackhawks somehow beat the Pens. Guess I got greedy after yesterday.

[zambonir]

I just saw that this is the fifth consecutive season and ties the franchise record for most consecutive seasons missing the playoffs.

It really is stunning that A) it has been that long B) that they were trying to make the playoffs three of those years (at least at the start of the third one and C) that they had the 4th-most points in the East and were also the #1 seed in the COVID playoff format in 2020.

I think they are going to make the playoffs next year though. They would have last year with a goaltender and Walker, let alone being buyers (not that that would have been a good idea). They have plenty of money and assets now to add both placeholder talent and a few bigger pieces if they can find them. And I doubt either of the current back-up goaltenders are on the NHL team next year which could be worth four or five wins by itself. Maybe even 10 if it also makes Ersson five wins better.

[bigegypt0417]

overall still a good weekend for the flyers.

They just have to do their part at this point.

[bigegypt0417]

Bump looks like he could fight for a spot next year...

Alex Bump became a ‘college hockey superstar.’ After 2025 Frozen Four, Flyers...

[Docs]

Maybe something that is only interesting to me, i looked up Alex Bump to see where he was picked, and Nikita Grebenkin was selected two spots after him in the fifth round of the 2022 draft.

[flyers19rw]

Tortorella turned this team into a smelly mess. He mishandled his lines for the entire season while belittling most of the players at one point or another. That Michkov, Couturier and Konecny had the potential to be a solid line was obvious in camp. However Tortorella decided to drop all of the forwards into a blender and no continuity developed among them. Similar situation with the defense. He dumped on the goaltenders from the opening of camp with comments that were self fulfilling. No wonder that their play has been weak.
The next coach has to do more than rebuild the rosters. There are a lot of crushed images that need attention as well.

[phillychuck]

Bottom line--the next coach has to be better than the south end of a northbound donkey. Torts struggled to meet even that low standard.

Anyone who has ever worked for a jerky boss knows how that can affect your motivation and job performance. Jerky would be a compliment if applied to Torts. Please, don't let the door hit you in the butt on your way out.

[zambonir]

Seems like convenient revisionist history to pile on Torts now. I still think he did a pretty good job, it just always had an expiration date. If the hater perspective on him is even half-right that means our new President and GM made a terrible decision keeping him (which many people certainly thought then), and if they were overly influenced by Hilferty that's terrible too. Ditto if Torts' evaluations drove the roster decisions and trades. So how do you expect them to get anything else right?

[Austinfan]

If Torts is so bad, and the talent is so limited, how the heck were they top ten in ES metrics the last two seasons?
Couts took a year and a half to regain most of his skill set, Torts gave him a chance to be 1C and had to demote him b/c he was so bad.
Brink went from a marginal NHL player to a 2nd line forward in two seasons.
Zamula went from an AHL plus D-man to a solid NHL player.
Cates went from a 5th rd afterthought to the center of our best line (albeit overmatched against first lines).
He was right limiting Michkov's minutes, Michkov took off after the 4 nations break, he had dead legs going into the break - it's a huge jump from a KHL to a NHL season for a young rookie.

Torts couldn't reach Frost, and the neck injury flatlined Farabee, but it's not like they've blossomed in Calgary.

The real problem is this team is a bunch of misfit toys, Torts was mixing and matching trying to find chemistry, first the Cates line clicked, then the Couts line, now the Poehling line. Frost played with the best offensive forwards for two years and regressed, you can lead a horse to water . . . nothing clicked.

Same on defense, with a healthy Risto they had three solid pairs, but York - Sanheim can't handle 1st pair/25 minutes, Andrae - Zamula are easily pushed around. There's going to be personnel changes the next two years, I think Briere wants to pair mobile offensive D-man/big mobile defense first D-men.

[zambonir]

I think what the breakdown of the locker room showed this year is that while Torts talked a good game about the rebuild, he wasn't really ready or willing to hit bottom, and at the time he agreed to stay he thought he could have a playoff team a lot sooner. Had things gone differently with Hart maybe they make the playoffs last year, or maybe they trade Hart and he would have gotten to the point he did this year sooner.

Of course he also saw the writing on the wall - that next year might well be a playoff team but they weren't going to let him coach it anyway.

I agree it's been a perfectly decent team for the most part. A goalie, Walker and just a bit more talent on the PP (plus better coaching, it would seem) and we'd either be getting ready for the playoffs or complaining about another year where the draft pick wasn't high enough.

I seriously doubt the new coach is going to say that he needs a year to get this team back into the playoffs. The hire, and the moves they make in June and July, will set the expectation.

[Austinfan]

I don't see Briere making major moves this summer.
They're not at the point where they should be adding older FAs, other than short-term patches.
It would be nice to trade for a young, potential top 6 center or top 4 D-man, but those are opportunity calling deals (you can't predict when a player you like shakes loose).

If Briere wanted to make the playoffs
1) get a veteran goalie
2) get a veteran top 6 center
But that would slow the rebuild

More likely, he rolls out this team to start the season, he's not losing anyone, and Jett will probably make the team.
(Abols and Lycksell potential UFA, Cates and York, RFA)

At LHV:
Bump, Barkey, Grebenkin, Dowart, Wisdom, Gaucher, Gendron, Tuomaala, Rizzo, Ciernak?
Bonk, Grans, McDonald, Samson, Murchison, Sotheran?
Bjarnason

So players may dictate moves, to promote from LHV, will need to move players off the Flyer roster.

[phillychuck]

Torts is an a-hole, almost all the players hated him, and that is coming out now that he's gone. I don't care how much hockey he knew, no one, and that includes hockey players, wants to work for an a-hole. I'm sorry if this is a strong take, but I've experienced this, and it doesn't sit well with me. I've actually structured my life as a manager to do everything I can to avoid Torts-like behavior, and, honestly, I've been quite successful in my limited realm. Don't be a jerk, put your people first, go to bat for them, and, astonishingly, they will move mountains for you.