The Jean Segura trade featuring Carlos Santana and JPC

Austinfan 2018-12-03 22:57:44 UTC #41

His defense has been steady, slightly above average, an uptick last year which I wouldn't expect to repeat.
His offense the last two years has been steady, not the power surge he had in Zona, but a repeatable BABIP and a .300 BA.

He's not a top player, but he fills a hole in the lineup, and will provide steady defense at a key position.
Probably a 3 WAR player for a couple years, and 1-2 WAR by his fourth season, at which time he may be a super utility guy. But at $14M a year, a lot cheaper than buying that value in FA.

Clearwater: Brito (21), Guthiie (23), Maton (22), Gomez (22), Gamboa (21)
Lakewood: Stokes (22), Holmes (21)
Williamsport: Torres (19), Gonzalez (19), Simmons (19), Mercado (19), Tortolero (19), Guzman (20)
GCL: Garcia (18)

While most will fall by the wayside, Phillies have invested a lot of resources the last few years in middle IFs, a few should be in Lehigh by 2022, ready to step in if needed.

andyb 2018-12-03 23:06:59 UTC #42

You have way too much confidence in the volume of prospects. Right now Garcia is the only middle infielder that really profiles as a decent regular. Brito is the next best of that group and he is far, far away from being anything more than a utility player.

I don't have a huge problem with Segura as a regular. Just think he is overrated a bit and the defense likely will decline over this contract to the point where it is below average. The price is not outlandish - it is just a somewhat unnecessary addition that could create some issues in 2021 and 2022. Lots of time to fix that though and we could go into the luxury tax once or twice if needed. The lack of a great minor league system is somewhat worrying though. We are average now. Probably will be below average if we lose a pick or two plus international money in the next year.

zambonir 2018-12-03 23:15:03 UTC #43

Agree.

I don't see Segura as being "overpaid" at $14.25 million towards the end of the contract. That's probably about what he'd get in his final year of arbitration anyway. Now, granted, the Phillies once traded Hunter Pence to avoid that very thing, and will probably yet punt on Hernandez for the same reason. But it's hardly onerous (or immovable).

flyers19rw 2018-12-03 23:17:44 UTC #44

If things work out as some scouts believe, in four years Garcia will be the SS.

Squire 2018-12-03 23:53:26 UTC #45

Just wanted to say that I think this a fabulous trade for the Phillies. Moved the Santana contract, upgraded SS significantly, got two reliever wildcards, didn’t give up any other prospects.

California_Dreamin 2018-12-04 00:51:33 UTC #46

I too think this is a great deal for the Phillies, and sets the team up for a variety of future moves. As someone who still remembers the excitement of that post Hamels deal when we envisioned Williams, Alfaro and Thompson joining Crawford and Co. in a future that seemed limitless I will always wonder what happened to Crawford and how it soured so quickly.

But I hope he does well and give Klentak a 2 thumbs up for A] making a solid deal and B] for having the courage to acknowledge a mistake and do well to rectify it.

It also can't hurt that it moves Hoskins back to first base and opens up a spot for Harper in the OF. Both are Boras clients and while money will talk the most, Hoskins has to be happy with this move and happy client makes for a happy agent.

EastFallowfield 2018-12-04 01:07:26 UTC #47

Meghan Montemurro's story on The Athletic makes a good point: Klentak wasn't afraid to lose face by insisting that Santana stick around to prove signing him wasn't a mistake.

donaldorc 2018-12-04 01:36:45 UTC #48

Great trade. Does this mean they already have Harper on the hook? Looking forward to the next moves.

el-pietro 2018-12-04 09:09:02 UTC #49

I really liked this post. I've seen lots of negative talk about this trade from a Seattle point of view, less so here than in other places and while I think Klentak did a very good job here I don't think its a slam dunk win for the Phillies. I think both teams got some value here and the relief pitchers could be key to who eventually "wins" the deal.

The reason I think this deal makes sense for the Phillies is because we are hoping JP Crawford eventually becomes a player with similar current value to Jan Segura and because we are going into a win now mode and don't really have the ability to wait for his development right now as well as giving us a chance to move Rhys back to first.The reason it makes sense for Seattle is because they are moving towards a rebuild and can afford to give him time to show his ability to reach his ceiling. They also save money over the length of the countracts, even if they see an uptick in AAV right away but AAV only matters if you are near the tax.

I think we got a good player who can help us win right now, and brings some badly needed league average defence as well as above average contact ability. I also think theres a non zero chance Crawford bounces back quickly when given the chance to play everyday (after Seattle is finished messing with his service time, Dipoto has already said they won't bring him up day one for "development reasons") and could be outperforming Segura within a year or two.

My preference would have been to see Crawford develop in Philadelphia but its clear the organisation preferred Kingery and this move makes sense for everyone involved.

el-pietro 2018-12-04 10:31:47 UTC #50

Jeff Sullivan suggesting the Phillies were the only viable trade destination for Segura

Nicasio is an interesting player
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7731&position=P

ERA of 6.00 in 2018 but with babip of .400

His peripherals show a solid player. K/9 of 11.36, WHIP of 1.381, FIP looks much better than ERA and hes projected to be pretty good if unspectacular next year.
Definitely a bounce back candidate.

andyb 2018-12-04 13:23:28 UTC #51

I am guessing this is why we wanted Nicasio instead of Swarzak in the deal. He was fighting injuries last season as well. There was a reason he got $9 million a year and what happened last season does not eliminate the possibility he could do it again.

andyb 2018-12-04 13:27:38 UTC #52

This is kind of where I am on the deal. The Phillies made a good deal for 2019. But Crawford could easily turn out to be the better player.

The key is Crawford's defense to me. If his defense returns to being plus at SS his offense already is good enough to make him a 2-3 WAR player (at pretty reasonable prices for 5 years). He was hurt early last year and that contributed to his throwing errors at SS. Then IMO he was mismanaged when they put him at 3B and Kingery at SS for really shaky reasons. Simply put, the team (whether it was Kapler or Klentak or others) liked Kingery better.

Our ability to absorb money means we were bound to win the deal in the short term. I just think Crawford was an undervalued asset.

phillychuck 2018-12-04 13:30:09 UTC #53

I think most posters are missing the key variable in this trade. JPC has had a long history of sustaining injuries, some that he played with, some that put him on the DL. My guess is that he never stays healthy enough to "develop" into the player his skill package promises. I honestly think his health is more of a key to this trade than anything. I wish him the best, but I'm skeptical.

fish 2018-12-04 15:10:29 UTC #54

I know i sure undervalued him as an asset- never in my wildest dreams did I think he could net Segura without having to package other prospects in the deal.

Adding Segura and Pazos and moving Santana effectively fixed 4 roster problems- It's a really impressive move. Now you have a starting shortstop, a good lefty reliever, you cleared first to be able to move Hoskins over, and by filling short you can move Kingery back to second.

saycheese 2018-12-04 15:44:08 UTC #55

I really do like this deal. I watched Crawford play at Reading many a time. Didn't like his body language and didn't think he was that good defensively. He seemed to make a spectacular play and then boot the routine one. Sometimes that is age. I actually think he was a better 3rd baseman than SS. However his bat doesn't play to third base. He really was just a part for the Phillies, Kingery clearly was their choice ahead of him at shortstop and they even played Asdubel there. I think he was expendable. Santana was a bad fit to begin with and the fact that they got anything in a deal for him is commendable.
I am glad that the Phillies backed off the original deal (as reported by Rosenthal on the Athletic) that Sixto was originally in the deal that would have brought back Diaz to the Phillies. The Phillies decided they wanted to go the FA route for the back end bullpen positions (Notes Britton and Miller) Which means we should expect one at least one free agent signing going forward. Overall they improved SS and 1st base with this decision, improved their defense. They did create a hole in left field but that could be filled by a free agent or even letting Altherr and Quinn battle it out which once again improves their defense.

LoneStarPhan 2018-12-04 15:45:25 UTC #56

The Mariners may well look like the trade winner in a few years, but even in the short term, they did okay. Of course, any and every player can fail or blossom, so there is always uncertainty.

I think JPC can be a very good ML shortstop for many years. Santana is a solid ML regular and I like that he is a switch hitter. He may be a little over paid but not ridiculously so. The Mariners got good value.

The Phillies get a shortstop who should be a regular fixture in the lineup. Hoskins now returns to first and adds stability at that position. It should no longer br necessary to sub for him for defense late in games. That means no more late game situations where his spot in the order comes up in a key spot and he is already out of the game. Segura will also mean fewer in-game substitions at the SS position. These two things greatly reduce the need to use bench players and help make the 4 man bench more adequate to meet other in-game needs.

I am sure there will be many, many different lineups again this season. Seems that is the way of the game here well into the 21 st century. However, having a regular shortstop and first baseman playing in their comfortable position seems to greatly add to stabilization, something that seemed to be missing last season.

Kudos to the GM/PTB for recognizing this need to stabilize the lineup. I think this trade greatly helps do this. It also added two pitchers, including one lefty, that should help in assembling an effective bullpen.

Now I expect some more changes, probably free agents, to lock in a starter at third and one corner outfield position.

Philsmania 2018-12-04 15:59:58 UTC #57

Not to mention, if Santana has a good 2019 and the Mariners are willing to eat some of hiss money at the deadline, they could get a nice return for him.

EDmuch 2018-12-04 16:40:36 UTC #58

I don't know why anyone thinks JPC will ever become a good hitter, something he has not accomplished above AA ball. But whatever. I think he will be a competent, though marginal shortstop. Kind of a Freddie Galvis without power.

But the key thing now is to see where Klentak moves next. I hope they do not give Corbin 7 years in order to beat the Yankees. Heck we should hope the Yankees throw huge money at Corbin so as to reduce what they will have for Machado. I just wish they would put Middleton's "crazy" money down on paper for Machado and get him signed.

julio 2018-12-04 16:52:20 UTC #59

Credit where due: You put your opinion out there, EDmuch! If Crawford does develop into more that you think, you'll undoubtedly hear about it!

EDmuch 2018-12-04 17:12:47 UTC #60

I am sure BE will be all over me. Heck he still gets on me even though I was right about Dom Brown. So I have complete trust in BE's willingness to jump on me.