The Ended Flyers Thread

[zambonir]

Current playoff odds at Athletic are 13% but it was half that last week (and as low as 2% when they were 8 points out I think).

Ah, here's a round-up of three projections

NHL Playoff Watch Daily: Playoff chances, Lose for Hughes projections and more

[xogfog]

I don't know when Joel Farabee will reach the Flyers, but this was pretty:

BU Men's Hockey (TerrierHockey)

[Austinfan]

Farabee will stay in college or go directly to the NHL, it will probably depend on how fast he fills out - he plays a physical game so he needs to have enough strength to handle the crowds around the net and win battles in the corners. He's not going to be floating around the perimeter of the action.

[xogfog]

Flyers still rolling after the hiccup vs. the Caps, housed the Islanders at their place for the second time in a week, but Voracek has been suspended for 2 games for a cheap shot hit. They are 5 points behind the Canadians and the Blue Jackets for the last playoff spot, but their remaining schedule is the hardest in the NHL, so it is really an uphill climb...

[xogfog]

Flyers beat the Senators 3-2 and are now 3 points behind Montreal and Columbus. Now, the schedule gets brutal. They may not make the playoffs, but how they handle this stretch will go a long way to figuring out what decisions are still left to be made.

[phillychuck]

Making the playoffs should not be the goal, they need to get something other than the 8 seed if they get in. Tampa Bay is a juggernaut. Don't want to see them go out losing a bunch of 5-0 and 6-1 games.

[xogfog]

Well Carolina, the 7th seed has 5 points on the Flyers with a game in hand. I agree, Tampa would be a horrible matchup, but if the Flyers (who are 19-7 over the last month with two of the losses being OT losses) continue to play at the same level they've been at recently, I don't care what your record is, I wouldn't be thrilled about playing them in the playoffs. NHL history is littered with President Trophy winners getting ousted early in the playoffs.

[zambonir]

What's funny is, didn't the team do this two different times under Haskstol too? Epic struggles, epic winning streak? Or was it just the one?

[Austinfan]

They finished strong each year under Hakstol.
This year it's basically going from awful goalie play to top ten goalies, since January 10 the goalies have a .924 Sv% with the team giving up about the same rate of scoring and high danger scoring chances.

The other factor this year was Couts lost a month to the MCL and JVR didn't hit his stride until December, and Sanheim and Lindblom moved into bigger roles in January. Last year TK moved up to the first line in January. This will be the norm the next couple years - young players tend to be inconsistent, and when they struggle, the team often struggles. As they get more talent, and new players break in with lesser roles, this will be less of a problem.

[xogfog]

No help tonight, Montreal and Columbus both won.

[zambonir]

Still don't see 'em getting there and don't really care if they do but great win tonight. Still wanna trade JVR?

[xogfog]

At this point, as much as I like Quenneville as a coach, I know he leans towards vets, and the Flyers are loaded with young players, many of whom played under Gordon with the Phantoms. I think the way the Flyers have played, it is worth keeping Gordon as the coach even if it means missing out on Quenneville. I'd like to see this team next year with a full year with Gordon and the core of players currently on the team, with a big free agent signing and Frost coming up, plus full years of Hart and Myers and a big step forward from Patrick. I'm really excited about the future of this team.

[Austinfan]

Just say no to Gordon, the team has played worse under him than Hakstol, the difference has been the goalies, not the coaching. They're being dominated in Corsi, scoring chances and high danger scoring chances practically every game - in other words, the other team controls games and our goalies stop them - that's not a long-term winning formula.

My preference is Keefe, a great AHL HC who will coach somewhere in the NHL next year.
Before you say how can you go with an AHL coach - Sullivan took the Pens to two Cups.

[zambonir]

Of course you can go with an AHL coach. Sullivan's Cup-winning predecessor (Bylsma) was also an AHL coach. Helps to have the Penguins players too doesn't it? But the Flyers have also had great success with their NHL retreads - Nielsen, Hitch, Laviolette - for as long as they lasted.

Anyway, don't think you can expect this front office - even Fletcher - to hire an AHL or junior guy this time. They can justify keeping who they have - also a good AHL coach (before he failed on Long Island) - or they can make the splash. (Also I wonder if Keefe will just get promoted to Toronto assistant so they can keep him).

To say they have been truly worse under Gordon seems like a stretch. If anything it shows the problems are much deeper than coach or system.

[xogfog]

Under the 40 games so far with Gordon, the Flyers have amassed 47 points, which projects to around 95 points for an 82 game season, which would put them squarely in the playoffs. This also included a 7 game losing streak as Hart was getting acclimated to the NHL game, so you could project another 5 points with more goalie stability and now you have a 100 point season. That also discounts any improvement to the team, which there should be with the younger players being a year better, plus the addition of Frost and a free-agent. Of course not everything could go right, but I think the Flyers are poised to be a top 5 team next year with Gordon at the helm.

[xogfog]

I should also add that the assistant coaches with Gordon have really brought improvement to the defense and in no small way as Provorov, Sandheim in particular have made great strides of improvement under this staff's tutelage.

[Austinfan]

If you look at the team metrics under Hakstol and Gordon, they're worse under Gordon except for shooting % on the PP and save % at both 5x5 and the PK. The PP sh% is probably an anomaly, just like the historically poor PP sh% before he took over - like BABIP it tends to regress to the mean over time.

Hart came up and Elliott came back under Gordon, while before then, the Flyers easily had the worst goaltenders in the league.

Flyers under Gordon are more turnover prone, struggle to get the puck out of the D-zone and tend to make too many stretch passes instead of moving the puck up the ice.

With Hart as the starter (amazing game against the Pens), a veteran backup, goalie should be set (and a bunch of good young goalies that are 2-3 years away in Sandstrom, Ersson, Ustimenko and Fedotov).

Fletcher has a lot of assets to play with this offseason, from cap room to pick #12-15 to some young players he can deal.

[flyers19rw]

Rick Wilson's work with the defense has been a huge step forward from what was going on under Murphy. He'd be a keeper as an assistant coach but at his age, sixty-eight, he might rather enjoy his retirement, which he broke up, to help his friend, Fletcher.

[xogfog]

All those negatives you are citing, yet they are 23-14-4 under Gordon. That's more than just luck and goalie stability. The defense is better and the scoring is up. They are turning the puck over more because they can take more chances offensively because the defense and goaltending have improved.

[Austinfan]

The defense isn't better, they've been dominated most games of the winning streak in terms of both Corsi and scoring changes. The goalies are better by a wide margin at both 5x5 and the PK, in terms of Sv% for both scoring chances and high danger scoring chances - which wouldn't reflect better defense, better defense would be reflected in fewer scoring chances allowed, which hasn't occurred.