The Ended Flyers Thread

[zambonir]

I am sympathetic to both arguments. Results don't lie but peripherals and luck matter too. They were also 26-12 last season in 2018 (after starting 16-14). You can't discount the shake-up but I don't know that Gordon necessarily made them any better than Hakstol, and therefore can't say he's a clear choice over other outside candidates either. At the same time, he is and will be coaching al large group of guys he's had in the AHL, and he's a former goalie breaking in a young goalie.

The thing is there aren't really any casual hockey fans, they, and most of the local media wouldn't know Joel Quenneville from Conn Smythe. Otherwise, there would be pressure - post Process, post-Bryce - to make a splash. But winning is the only splash that really matters.

Boring for a message board but basically I don't have an opinion. They wanna hire Quenneville, he's obviously good. They wanna keep Gordon, he's done a good job. They wanna interview multiple candidates and pick someone else, also good. As always I'm in favor of interviewing multiple candidates regardless.

[zambonir]

Looks like we can continue with the off-season talk.

[phillychuck]

Honestly, fans that think the team has been playing better over the win streak (other than goalie play) aren't watching the same game I am. They still make lots of bad passes, lose their men in the zone, and just don't create enough dangerous scoring opportunities. They seem to be better than an average NHL team at converting good chances, and their goalie play has really been good lately. But that's it, and all the advanced stats show the same thing I'm seeing.

[zambonir]

For me it doesn't make a difference. If the team is actually better under Gordon, great, keep him if they want. If it's the same as it was under Hakstol, well, I doubt a third coach is going to be the difference either. Only more development (and some new players) will, and if things go right in that regard, whoever is coaching next fall will be the beneficiary of that improvement, as much as as a reason. It's really about deciding who is the right fit for the short and medium-term needs of both the roster and the W-L expectations. Not sure we know exactly what those are for the latter yet (though we have a pretty good idea how Scott and Holmgren feel).

[bkeich]

Trading JVR

I am guessing this is directed at me. Yes, I would, the fact he is playing well, and he is, just makes it an easier decision. It is not that he doesn't have value, it is that by the time this team might actually compete he will be in decline. He was not playing that well earlier this year, but he has certainly found his way now. Good.

I would like to see them get value for him, because sadly we are going to be a few years from competing. The young players coming up are going to need time, we have much of the defensive youth, but the offense is getting old fast.

Yes, I would hope to get something for him now.

[zambonir]

I just remembered it had come up. But you are raising the same core question I was. What are this team's short and medium-term goals? I don't think they are rebuilding. They didn't fire the GM and the coach to restart the clock. Whether the coach is Scott Gordon or Joel Quenneville next year they are going to be expected to make the playoffs, and win a round in or two '20-'21. Ditching your most productive goal scorer isn't going to get you there. He was merely injured earlier in the season, it turns out.

Whether that's the right move I don't know. But if you aren't trying to win I don't see JVR as someone you need to get rid of more than Voracek (bigger cap hit) or Giroux (longer contract). In for a penny, in for a pound?

They are in a pretty similar situation to last year's Phillies, I think. I would certainly be happier if they hadn't played quite so well this second half, tbh.

[Austinfan]

This team is in year 5 of the "stealth rebuild" that Hextall started in 2014, had he been honest (or allowed to be honest) the team would be further along and the fans less frustrated.

Flyers were just ranked as the #1 team in the NHL in terms of talent 23 and under by TSN.
They have Frost and Farabee on the door step, they'll have a loaded LHV roster next season.
They also have ten draft picks in this summer's draft and lots of short-term (less long-term due to RFAs coming up) cap room.

The primary need is a veteran RHD to stabilize the young defense (Gudas isn't good enough) and a 4C to strengthen that line, and maybe shuffling one of the top nine forwards for a better fit. That's about it. Otherwise, just let the kids grow into their roles.

[xogfog]

Unless they can get a top defensman in a trade, Karlsson is the only free agent I would be interested in, and reports are he wants to stay on the West coast. Otherwise, I'm okay with Sanheim, Provorov, Ghost, Myers, Hagg and Morin. At this point Provorov and Ghostisbehere are veterans. Frost makes the team next year, Farabee and Ratcliffe the year after. Rubstov only played 14 games (he looked really good) with the Phantoms before season ending shoulder surgery. I imagine he will start next year with the Phantoms, but could be with the Flyers by mid-season.

Again, unless they get a top d-man, I'd go after a top line forward as a free agent, Panarin in particular. Stanley Cups are usually won by teams with a superstar player (Caps, Penguins, Blackhawks). The Flyers won't have any superstars, so they will need to win with depth of talent and great goaltending (like the Kings).

2019-2020 roster projection:

Forwards: Giroux, Voracek, JVR, Couturier, Konecny, Frost, Lindblom, Patrick, Laughton, Hartman, Vorobyov, Free Agent

Defense: Provorov, Sanheim, Ghostisbehere, Myers, Morin, Hagg, Gudas (trade McDonald if possible, or send him to the Phantoms to take his 5 Mil salary off the books). Morin probably needs to play a bit in the AHL and see if he can stay healthy and if he proves he is worthy of the call up, they can probably trade Gudas. Schlemko is probably the 7th defenseman in the interim.

Goalies: Hart, Talbot or Elliot

[flyers19rw]

This team is too slow and lacks the players with skills that can compete with the speed teams in the league. On the other side, it doesn't have the strength/grit to out muscle teams like Caps and Bs that play that type of game. The organization needs to choose its personality and then make the appropriate moves to create it. Fletcher has a lot of work to do both on the ice and behind the bench.

[Austinfan]

Flyers don't have any superstars, hmm, just a center scoring a ppg and a top Selke candidate.
Another forward who is one of the top five scorers this decade.

Morin can't go back to the AHL without going through waivers, so that's a nonstarter.
On defense, I think they really want a veteran who can stabilize the "kiddie core" and shut opposing teams down in the D-zone, a Kimmo type, they have plenty of offense from their defense but need someone who plays defense.

I don't think they have much of a shot at landing EK or Panarin, my suspicion is they pick up a veteran for depth on the bottom six then make a trade of one of their top 7 forwards for a better top 6 guy who's a better fit.

They're gonna have a loaded LHV team next year, which means depth won't be an issue in 2020-21.

The difference between the Flyers and last year's Phillies is the Flyers have a loaded "farm system", for example Ersson was the best goalie in the Swedish version of juniors and is continuing his dominance in the playoffs - he'll be starting in the SHL next year while Sandstrom comes to LHV. The Russian UDFA they signed was one of the top defensemen in junior hockey, and so on.

[xogfog]

Flyers don't have any superstars, hmm, just a center scoring a ppg and a top Selke candidate.
Another forward who is one of the top five scorers this decade.

I stand by the statement that the Flyers do not have a superstar. Giroux and Couts are excellent, but no one of the ilk of McDavid, Matthews, Crosby, Malkin, Kucherov, Ovechkin, etc... Look at the last 10 cup winners:

2018 Washington - Ovechkin
2017/2016/2009 Pittsburgh - Crosby/Malkin
2015/2013/2010 Chicago - Kane/Toews

Only the Kings and Bruins have also won cups in the last 10 years with teams that were solid all the way around, and all I'm saying is that is the only way the Flyers are going to win it all, they have to be solid top to bottom and Hart has to be our Brodeur. If Hart does become the bellwether goalie he is expected to be, the Flyers are not far away from being cup contenders. The question will be if they can cash in before the play of the current group of vets fade.

[Austinfan]

The current vets are going to be support players in 3 years.
Couts, Patrick, Lindblom, TK, Frost, Farabee, Ratcliffe,
and behind them Rubtsov, Kase, Laczynski, Allison, Strome, Cates . . .
Ghost, Provorov, Myers, Sanheim, behind them Hogberg, Zamula, . . .
Hart with Sandstrom, Ersson, Ustimenko and Fedotov.

The organization has tremendous depth, it comes down to Fletcher making the right moves, not getting impatient and trying to force them to win now. Done right, this team is set up to be a cup contender for a decade.

If Giroux and Couts aren't superstars, neither are Kane and Toews.
Chicago won because of great depth, Hossa, Sharp, Keith, etc.

[bigegypt0417]

Farabee is signing a pro contract and leaving college after one year.

[xogfog]

Flyers extend Michael Raffl for two more years. If you are scratching your head wondering why, they brought him back at a huge discount (1.6 mil per season, an over 30% pay cut from this season). I'm fine with him if he is exclusively a 4th liner.

[Austinfan]

Depth.

We started the season with Vorobyev, Knight, Lehtera and Weise as the 11th to 14th forwards.
JVR and Knight got injured.

So someone like Raffl as your 12th forward is an upgrade, and if the kids step up he's the 13th/14th forward.
$1.6M is only 900K over the minimum, and you are going to be paying 14 forwards.

[xogfog]

With the Raffl extension, the Flyers have 14 players under contact and about 31 million in cap space. MacDonald is one of those 14, they need to get his 5 mil salary off the books either by trade or waive, which would get them to 36 million.

They have several restricted free agents, but only Hartman and Laughton are arbitration eligible, so figure 8 to 10 million, unless they want to lock up Provorov, Sanheim and Konecny to cost certain long term deals.

I would figure they will be about 20 mil under the cap when free agency starts. That should be enough to fill the roster with some good talent.

[Austinfan]

You're not moving MacDonald in a trade without retaining half his salary, and waiving him saves nothing, you either buy him out or stash him in the AHL (saving $1M).

Top free agents get 5-7 year deals, so the $20M cap room isn't available for big names, maybe $10M or one signing.

Where the short-term cap room comes in handy is picking up the last couple years on a contract or sweetening a trade by taking on a bad contract (Lehtera got us the 2018 1st rd pick which got us Farabee).

[xogfog]

Salary Cap is year by year, so if the Flyers have 20 mil available for next season they could easily sign a big name free agent to a long term deal that averages 9 mil a year, which would be a huge contract and still have 11 mil to fill out the rest of the roster. The largest salaries in 2018-2019 were Kane and Toews each getting 10.5mil and Kopitar made 10mil. The highest paid Flyer is Giroux at 8,275.000.

[Austinfan]

Huh? You sign a 7 year deal, it's guaranteed money over the life of the contract, and so is the cap hit.
$9M a deal won't land you EK or Panarin, they're looking at $11M a year or so.
It might get you Duchene, but he's not worth it, neither is Skinner.

[xogfog]

That was just an example of course, why are you nitpicking a theoretical scenario? Of course the could spend 11 mil on one player and the other 9 on the rest of the roster in that theoretical example as well.