Temporary 7/20 GDT Phillies vs Priates

[andyb]

Probably not as cut and dry though as most Hoskins' walks are very close to a strikeout also as he is fouling off close pitches.

The theory here is that Hoskins could hit more HRs if he is aggressive. He is taking lots of strikes early in the count. If he is not going to be more aggressive then maybe he should hit in front of Harper rather than behind.

None of this of course is THAT impactful. Batting orders only mean so much. The bigger issue is probably coming up with a more productive 5th hitter that cashes in all these runners on base.

[bkeich]

I agree that flipping Harper and Hoskins would be smart, but in past years sharpers OBP has been much higher so we might be making a decision based on an extended slump that Harper had.

Sadly we really don’t have a better #5 hitter. Hernandez might be an option since he does get singles and does work counts. Kingery might be a better option if Hernandez could get his OBP up again and move into the lead off spot.

Maybe we will pick up a rental CF or more likely 3B that could provide some production. Realmuto is miscast in his present spot in the lineup, but someone has to hit there.

If you want to do something really radical have Hoskins leadoff, then Kingery, Harper, Franco, Segura, Realmuto, Hernandez, Pitcher, Quinn/Haseley/Williams. That would get your best hitters more PA’s

[zambonir]

I think this is all slightly besides the point as far as Hoskins' overall worth (of course he had a good day today). Sure, he's 17th in the NL in OPS but but five of the guys ahead of him are also 1B (though he's actually tied with Muncy for 5th). He's a very good player but not extraordinary.

Again, ironically, no 1B in the NL is better than him or the other five guys except for Santana.

That Harper also doesn't seem to be extraordinary this year is an unrelated issue.

[BostonRoss]

I never understood the theory that reducing one’s walks results in better overall outcomes. Even if the at bats where a hitter declines to take a walk ended up in the same proportions of outcomes as the hitter’s other at bats, most of them are outs. Then factor in that declining walks requires swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, and it seems likely that the outcomes would be worse.

Are there any examples of players who reduced their walks and increased their overall offensive output?

[andyb]

Are there any examples of players who reduced their walks and increased their overall offensive output?

Lots and lots of players. It is more the change in approach. Being aggressive earlier in the count can get you good pitches to hit. Now if you hit them all, you might end up getting as many walks by being pitched around, so it might be harder to measure an exact relationship in the data.

The observation about Hoskins versus Harper is that Hoskins is less aggressive early in the count than Harper. They both take walks, but Harper might get more XBH batting after Hoskins because of his approach. And it would not matter as much to Hoskins since he is less aggressive.

Good players don't try to draw walks. They try to swing at good pitches and take walks when they come. More good pitches come early in the count rather than later.

An example of a player who improved by decreasing his walks is Joc Pederson:

Joc Pederson Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

[BostonRoss]

It doesn't seem to me that Pederson is a clear cut case of improvement:

(2019 numbers prorated to a full season)

There was improvement after his rookie year, when he did walk more, but his last two years don't look better than his second year when he walked 50% more often. 2017 was bad, and he did walk more than in the past two years, but less than in his best season the year before.

[andyb]

It doesn't seem to me that Pederson is a clear cut case of improvement:

The data is never perfectly clear, but it does see that if you group the high walk years (15-17) and compare them to the lower walk years (18-19) the latter two would be better. Like 124 vs 112 OPS+ (the WAR is subject to playing time and defense).

Pederson's walks will probably increase a bit in the future if he gets pitched around more. But he clearly got better by walking less. My comment was also more about approach. With many players it might increase power without a change in walk rate.

The list of Phillies first pitch swingers is really interesting:

Statcast Search

Harper by a large amount swings the most at first pitches (and still has a really high walk rate). Hoskins and Cutch are the bottom two. Note Freddie Freeman is near the league lead in swinging at first pitches. Alfaro is really high of course also. The key of course is swinging at good pitches. They may be the only ones Harper sees in some at bats. Same with Hoskins potentially.