Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

gmwannabe 2023-01-20 13:13:10 UTC #102

I think if he makes it, 120 innings would be fine. 10 complete games and then spread out the 30 extra innings. if he gets less work than before, there is a possibility of arm injury. keep building the strength.
gm

rpmcmurphy 2023-01-20 15:38:37 UTC #104

I think that this is an over-simplification

Austinfan 2023-01-20 16:04:23 UTC #105

I think monitoring is a bit more sophisticated these days, and the focus will be less on crude proxies like IP, and more on how he responds to his workload, is he dropping his arm angle, overcompensating for fatigue, etc. And his workload will be managed based on those indicators.

Right now the focus of the video analysis is on ML players, but the Phillies organization wants to use these tools for players throughout the system, but it probably will take time to ramp up, b/c some of the analysis is labor intensive (though this is the real value of AI, doing the routine review and raising red flags for humans to look into more detail).

zambonir 2023-01-20 16:06:57 UTC #106

BP certainly eviscerated Verducci (in several articles), as far as anything being proven (or even provable). Honestly I don't think anyone, in a dugout, in a front office, in the stathead community, has ever truly figured it out, in terms of both pitch counts/IPs and training/throwing regimen. Didn't Leo Mazzone have his own system that almost no one else used? And I think Mike Marshall, who was a pariah at the time, is probably very well-represented in the new generation of coaches.

Matt_Winkelman 2023-01-20 17:08:41 UTC #107

Returning to lists, BP Top 101

12- Painter
36 - Abel
51 - McGarry

Lee wasn't just missed, but was not far off.

andyb 2023-01-20 18:39:15 UTC #108

As I recall the science in Verducci was less than just finding a pattern in usage that correlated with overuse. We have progressed much further than that these days of course. Pitch counts are still used though and used more strictly. Letting a pitcher go 110 pitches these days is just rare and managers know that it is just easier to go by the pitch counts than if they are "tiring" or noticed something bio-mechanically.

I think a 30-inning increase (not 20) has been the benchmark used in recent years as acceptable. They have just tightened all the rules somewhat.

For the Phillies Thomson is right to acknowledge that something has to give if he gets a bunch of 4-5 inning starts. Bullpens are already strained by the extra innings and I think the Phillies are more oriented towards 1-inning relievers because they have so many hard throwers.

Consequently I think the Phillies will look to give Painter periodic rests and skip him in the rotation if there are off days. A 6-man rotation actually introduces the same bullpen issues so I think they may go with a 5-man rotation and throw a bullpen game in there occasionally. Along with a 2-week planned break.

I don't think there is any way Painter will exceed 150 innings in the regular season. And even in the playoffs they might choose to make him a long relief weapon. The coaching staff is simply not good enough to recognize a tiring pitcher so they will default to arbitrary pitch counts and inning limits because they have nothing better in their arsenal.

andyb 2023-01-20 18:42:40 UTC #109

Not to get a preview of your list, but it sounds like you may be ranking Lee 4th. The hit tool does seem to justify that, but it also feels aggressive for somebody who may not be great defensively. I think I still slot him behind Rojas and Crawford but he might be pretty far ahead of anybody we might rank 7th.

Matt_Winkelman 2023-01-20 18:59:33 UTC #110

I was part of writing and ranking on BP's Phillies list so it isn't really giving anything away to say I will have Lee 4th. I think he will be a fine defender at 2B, but really he just hits. The batted ball data matches the eye test in that he does lack some true high end power, but he just does not hit anything softly, just a ton of solid contact, much of it line drive. For his age and level of play his plate discipline numbers were outstanding. I don't know if he gets to the power output, but he is a much better defender, but Curtis Mead did come up in conversations because they are both guys that just hit, and while that sounds cliché it just is what they do.

I don't know if the gap is big to Crawford and Rojas, but I just don't have any real confidence in either of them hitting. I want to believe in Crawford being young and Rojas having ++ makeup and feel for the game, but neither has shown they have a knack for pitch recognition.

Not to give everything away and ruin people reading the list, but I have Bergolla at 7 on the list because watching him I think he will hit. I don't know if it is big upside, but I think he will hit the ball. I don't know if it is a pivot away from what I have prioritized in the past, but the Phillies just do not develop hit tools right now, and until they do I just cannot justify guys who do not have them. I do think this year because the system is so sort of jumbled and down I have been prioritizing personal preference and org strengths in the rankings. Like for example Alex McFarlane is over Gabriel Rincones not entirely because McFarlane is the better talent, but because I see the raw tools of McFarlane and I know what the Phillies may turn that into. I just don't have that confidence on the hitting side.

andyb 2023-01-20 19:19:41 UTC #111

Did not see this linked, but BA does make a podcast available for each list:

andyb 2023-01-27 19:04:25 UTC #112

Matt Winkelman starts his list today:

andyb 2023-01-27 21:24:46 UTC #113

MLB.com top 100 today too. Painter 6 and Abel 48.

Keith Law lists start next week as well.

phillychuck 2023-01-28 13:30:06 UTC #114

Fangraphs issued its "Top-48" prospects list for Tampa Bay this week, and our old friend Curtis Mead is #1, according to them. He put up a 1.250 OPS in a half-season in AA, and nearly matched it in a month at AAA last year. Give credit to the Rays who saw him as valuable when he was in rookie ball, and shame on the Phils for not seeing his potential. He's really still a bit lost on defense, but he hits like a young Mike Trout.

andyb 2023-01-28 13:44:03 UTC #115

Mead is very good. Not Mike Trout good though. A reference to Evan Longoria in the piece sounds a little closer. Trout had 80 speed and like 70 power though.

I do wonder where he will end up like anybody else. If the Phillies still had them we would be saying he has no place in LF with Schwarber and Castellanos and that he is as bad defensively at 3B as Bohm (maybe even worse). I can't imagine we would have NOT decided to sign Trea Turner (thinking a Stott at SS and Mead at 2B lineup was our future).

In Phillies world, assuming we could have developed his hit tool like Tampa (yes that is a big assumption), I think we trade him like we traded O'Hoppe for something else we need. Of course we got a major league starter for O'Hoppe.....

andyb 2023-01-30 18:20:13 UTC #116

Keith Law Top 100.

Painter only 13th. Abel 77. Looks like he is factoring in the injury risk for younger pitchers in his rankings.

tom81 2023-01-31 02:37:17 UTC #117

Law is full of it! “If your crystal ball says he’ll stay healthy, he’s a top-10 prospect in baseball, and might have a case to be in the top 6.”

Why does his crystal ball say #10. Eury Pérez, RHP, Miami Marlins,Age: 20 | 6-8 | 220 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right, is any less an injury risk than Painter?

andyb 2023-01-31 03:38:18 UTC #118

There is not much difference between 10 and 13 on a list. Law downgrades all young pitchers because of risk. At least he explains that he does so.

Here is the just missed list and it does include Rojas who Law seems to like more than others.

andyb 2023-01-31 14:13:13 UTC #119

And the next 2 chapters from Matt:

fish 2023-01-31 14:50:10 UTC #120

Tommy McCollum has his strikeout pitch ready for 2023.
https://twitter.com/LanginTots13/status/1488982207939051524?s=20&t=uWHAZ49Np7q1r2cia33-SA

Patchmk88 2023-01-31 19:23:23 UTC #121

That is filthy

Matt_Winkelman 2023-01-31 19:39:40 UTC #122

That video/tweet is from a year ago and part of why McCollum had a breakout (he also started adding velocity over the first few months until he got hurt)