Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[flyers19rw]

Anything that Law writes about the Phillies should be ignored. IDK did he try to get a job with them in the past and get rejected? I never have seen him write anything positive about the club.

[phillychuck]

How does that splitter have a 1500 rpm spin rate? It looked like a knucklemball its spin was so slow....

[Austinfan]

It doesn't, the average ML splitter is 1500 RPM, his averaged 1000 RPM.

Splitter, changeup, call it what you will, as long as it breaks like a screwball (was a screwball actually a changeup?) and he is deceptive enough that hitters can't see it coming, it's a key pitch for a RH pitcher, especially against LH hitters.

[bigegypt0417]

I really love Matt's writing!

Phillies 2023 Top Prospects – Ready to Be Hurt Again 12-17

[Squire]

So the Top 11 comes from:

RHPs: Painter, Abel, McGarry, McFarlane, Baker
OFs: Crawford, Rojas, Muzzioti
INFs: Lee, Bergolla, Caba

[andyb]

Carlos De La Cruz? - Maybe not ranking Caba yet till we see something.

[Matt_Winkelman]

No Caba. With the signing period moved to January I decided not to rank new international signees. I don't have any new or personal information to contribute, nor have they performed in a recent venue where information could be gathered. He certainly has the pre-signing reports to be in this area, but I just don't feel comfortable slapping a number next to his name and calling it my work.

[andyb]

Top 100 lists coming fast and furious this week. Today its ESPN. Painter 10 and Abel 46. Rojas among the 29 prospects who just missed.

That is 2 lists in a row with Rojas mentioned and McGarry not. In that range of a ranking there are clearly going to be areas of disagreement, but it is nice to see more support for Rojas on some sites. I do wonder if the new stolen base rules make many prospects like Rojas more valuable.

Kiley McDaniel's top 100 MLB prospects for 2023: Which future star is No. 1?

[phillychuck]

Certainly a solid take. Unless we have info from Phils' personnel on Caba it's fair to wait.

Good list as usual, Matt. There are a lot of potential breakouts in the 19-50 range--it's on the Phils to shepherd some of them through to next year's top 10.

Did you think of not ranking Guthrie due to his age?

[gmwannabe]

Always nice to see these lists come out. Matt's is very informative with a ton of info. I can't believe he didn't give a sniff to Manolfi Jimenez from the DSL white team. he is my sleeper. he can hit a ton and run like the wind. Thanks for sending this Matt.
gm

[Matt_Winkelman]

No, he always felt like a prospect. The missed 2020 season messes with age vs experience. This was also the year he would have become a minor league FA, so this isn't a guy who has been bouncing around. I think I end up punishing enough for age when it comes to future growth and a history of failed growth/development that I don't really factor it into prospect or not for guys who have not been playing the equivalent of major leagues in other countries.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I will have a bunch of DSL hitters and pitchers in my supplementals. It is tough for a DSL hitter to make the list without really jumping out. I really liked what I saw from Bergolla, and the bat speed from Aroon Escobar was enough to sneak him onto the list at the last moment, but it was close. The overall level of play was really high on both DSL teams this last year, the players are just so far away and the overall competition level in the DSL is just so bad.

[andyb]

Any chance Caba starts in FCL rather than DSL? We used to be more aggressive about starting our high profile signings in FL in the past. I guess domestic roster limits work against that now. The failure of Luis Garcia and Carlos Tocci to prosper after early promotions is also relevant. I could also see the Phillies wanting to let Bergolla get most of the SS starts in FCL and for Caba to start full time in the DSL.

[Matt_Winkelman]

They have said Caba will go to the DSL (Wen-Hui Pan will be stateside). There is a chance he hits his way stateside, but only one FCL team and no shortseason is a real killer. Not that you wouldn't move others aside for Caba, but the number of at bats and roster spots really is a finite resource.

Just another reason to hate the Astros and their influence on the current game (they were part of the push to contract the minors)

[Austinfan]

I don't think it matters for his first season, it's the offseason that matters, FIL, strength and conditioning training, one on one instruction at the complex. It's the 2nd and 3rd seasons you'd like to start seeing top prospects make big jumps - because most future stars tend to shoot up farm systems when they're 19-21 and get to the show by 20-22. Which makes sense, the reason they're stars is once they approach physical maturity they're simply heads and shoulders above their peers at every level. But when you're dealing with a 17-18 year old, I think just getting them comfortable moving to the US and strong and conditioned well enough to avoid injury should be the priority.

[andyb]

Keith Law's organizational rankings - 22nd. He thinks the system is trending up too, especially if they can resurrect a few stalled draftees (thinking Ethan Wilson here though his team rankings are not out yet).

MLB farm system rankings: Keith Law ranks all 30 teams

[bigegypt0417]

Up from 28 is not bad...there were some bright spots last season....let's hope for more progress this year!

[allentown]

Improvement is a good thing. I think this reflects Painter developing into a top prospect and moving, along with Abel, into the upper minors. Rankings of farm systems are legitimately based largely upon prospects with a solid chance to become stars or at least plus major leaguers. Depth adds less to the ranking of the farm.

[nycphils]

Matt, is the Phillies strength and conditioning program exceptionally poor? We seem to get a lot of skinny guys and while they all can’t be able to add the requisite muscle, can it really be possible that NONE of them ever turn the corner and add enough strength to drive the ball? Goes back to Carlos Tocci at least.

[andyb]

And we are likely to slip back in the rankings after this season unless we get some breakouts from beyond the top 6. Painter probably graduates. Maybe Abel and McGarry too. Low draft pick next year and the loss of a 2nd and 5th round pick. Really need someone like Bergolla to become a top 100 prospect to maintain where we are.