Post-season Prospect Lists

[Squire]

Wow. That is kinda amazing. To me there is a clear 1-3 and then 4-10 is razor thin.

[allentown]

Not trying to guess what BA will do, my list is:
1,Sixto Sanchez
2. Kingery
3. Crawford
4.Alfaro
5. Haseley
6. Medina
7. Ortiz
8. Morales
9. Moniak
10. Kilome
11. Romero
12. Dominguez
13. Romero
14.Brayan Gonzalez
15. Gamboa

[andyb]

I did think about Morales a bit (more for my next 5) but then just concluded he is too far away and really is 99% projection at this point. He is kind of like Kilome in rookie ball. Hard to rank till he does a little more at higher levels.

Gowdy is another name most will ignore but probably belongs near the back of the top 20. He got good reviews on the mound whenever he actually got on the mound.

[phillychuck]

I like Squire's list a lot...I probably am way too high on Ortiz, who I have at #4, though.

[Austinfan]

I consider Alfaro and Crawford graduated for all intents and purposes, doubtful they'll start next season in AAA.

Top Tier
1. Sanchez (19) - 96-98. Work in progress, but nothing to project, just a matter of polishing his change and curve.
2. Kingery (23) – great season at Reading, .335 OBP at Lehigh suggests he’s not quite ready to be a leadoff hitter in the Show
3. Ortiz (18) – at Williamsport and was a top player going against college kids, sky is the limit
4. Haseley (21) – they’ll probably tweak his mechanics in the FIL, look for a rapid ascent starting next year

Next Tier

1. Kilome (22) – steady progress, like a lot of tall fireballers, command is still an issue, probably 2 years away
2. Moniak (19) – hasn’t lived up to the pre-draft hype, moving into the “show me” stage of his career
3. Randolph (20) – light went on, 2nd half: .268/.361/.445/.806
4. Anderson (23) – 92-95 t97. Changeup, slider, and curveball. Good feel for pitching. Needs to get stronger – 110 IP is career high
5. Romero (20) – dominant at Lakewood, didn’t miss a beat at Clearwater
6. Medina (20) - 91-94 with a plus curve and changeup, solid year at Lakewood
7. Eshelman (23) – dominant at Lehigh, 13 BB in 114 IP, might just be the next Hendricks
8. D Hall (22) – how good was his Lakewood season? Road: .298/.363/.640/1.003, needs better discipline but should destroy FSL
9. Irvin (23) – 144 IP between Clearwater and Reading, HR problems in Reading prepares him for CBP
10. Howard (21) – getting his feet wet in Williamsport, should start at Lakewood and finish in Clearwater next year
11. Garcia, Elniery (22) – lost season due to suspension, but flashing at the end of the year, rusty.

I'm wary of prospects below A ball, Ortiz is an exception because he combines great upside and good performance in a college rookie league.
So I'll wait on Gamboa, Brito, Gonzalez, Morales, etc. These guys can jump immediately b/c FIL plus SIL, weight room and nutrition, and they're often totally remade a year or two down the road
Dominguez has to stay healthy, he's may win the Quinn award next year. If he can pitch 100+ innings, he could jump into the top 5.
Gowdy, forget about him until he shows the TJ was a success.

[allentown]

The toughest guys for me were Eshelman, Randolph, and Quinn. I decided I couldn't put any in top 15. Quinn needs to stay healthy for half a season, at which point he is likely a major leaguer, but can he stay healthy? Randolph will likely be a plus hitter, but given his slow speed and bad D limited to LF he needs to be an excellent hitter, and he hasn't shown that. Eshelman gets it done, but I doubt he has the stuff to be better than a #4/5, although I feel confident that if he remains healthy he will find his way into the Phillies rotation.

[Austinfan]

I'd like to see what Eshelman can do, while he lacks what I'd normally consider ML stuff, Hendricks and Keuchel show you can do it with marginal stuff if you have great command, and Eshelman may just be that freak.
Difference with someone like Cloyd was Cloyd was deceptive at the AAA level, but lacked the kind of command to keep ML hitters off-balance.
You see that with Leiter, if he had plus command he'd be a #3 starter with the assortment of pitches he throws, but too many end up over the center of the plate.
Same will apply to Leibrandt, without great command his stuff just won't fly.

Randolph is tough to gauge, while he hasn't torn it up, he's also was very young for the FSL.
But at some point he can't just hold his own, he has to excel as a hitter.
Moniak has more of a margin of error as a hitter, his defense will carry a good but not great bat.

[mdougherty12]

Hendricks and Keuchel both get a lot of ground balls, which is a very good trait if you're not going to get a ton of strikeouts. Eshelman has been more of a fly ball pitcher in the upper minors.

[andyb]

The toughest guys for me were Eshelman, Randolph, and Quinn.

I had Randolph and Quinn in my next 5. While I share the concern about Randolph's defense, I do think we downplay the second half offensive improvement and there is definitely some age-appropriate ability being shown. I also think Quinn has to be there because on talent he might be top 5. And we are pretty sure he'll be in the majors next year so while there is injury risk, there is also the lower risk of proximity to the majors.

Eshelman is tricky. I don't rank him because of ceiling. None of us can predict the Keuchels of the world. On stuff Eshelman is a #5 starter. Command might make him a tick better, but a guy with a 4/5 starter ceiling is just not a top 15 prospect to me. That is a guy that might have major league value, but is also easily replaceable on the roster. He'll get his chance like Lively did and might help us. It just does not make him any sort of top prospect. He has more stuff than Cloyd. Not much but he does have more. On command it is actually close. It is just hard to make a living in the majors as a right-handed starter throwing 87. At 90-91 for Eshelman there are more examples of success, just not that many percentage-wise.

[allentown]

Here's the reader's composite top 30 from Phuture Phillies:

1
Scott Kingery
2069
2
Sixto Sanchez
2052
3.J.P. Crawford
1841
4.Franklyn Kilome
1757
5.Adam Haseley
1741
6.Mickey Moniak
1696
7.Jhailyn Ortiz
1614
8.Adonis Medina
9.JoJo Romero
1530
10.Cornelius Randolph
1368
11.Roman Quinn
1305
12.Thomas Eshelman
1213
13'Ranger Suarez
1196
14.Dylan Cozens
1041
15.Carlos Tocci
1033
16.Seranthony Dominguez
1003

17.Drew Anderson
911
18.Nick Fanti
895
19.Daniel Brito
781
20.Darick Hall
738
21.Arquimedes Gamboa
731
22.Jorge Alfaro
693
23.Kyle Young
626
24.Cole Irvin
592
25.Spencer Howard
586
26.Francisco Morales
577
27.Kevin Gowdy
540
28.Jose Taveras
514
29.Elniery Garcia
490
30.McKenzie Mills
401

Note, the number on the line below the name is the weighted vote
Also note, there was some confusion over Alfaro eligibility

[phillychuck]

It's sick that a pitcher who jumped from starting in A ball to a successful month in AAA and posted a 1.04 WHIP and 2.22 ERA across 3 levels is our 28th best prospect. I think he might surprise us next year.

[allentown]

It's not that hard to list reasonably legit prospects through #50. It is a very deep farm of mid-level prospects, once you get past the top half dozen to 10 really serious prospects. We will have hits and misses from both groups.

[andyb]

It's sick that a pitcher who jumped from starting in A ball to a successful month in AAA and posted a 1.04 WHIP and 2.22 ERA across 3 levels is our 28th best prospect. I think he might surprise us next year.

He is kind of a Latino Eshelman. The stuff just does not impress anyone. Probably has similar chance of success. Could easily end up eating innings at the back of a rotation. Or the stuff may not play in the majors. He will deserve a chance at some point though if he keeps pitching well.

[allentown]

BA Phillies Top 10:
1. Crawford
2. Sanchez
3. Kingery
4. Medina
5. Haseley
6. Romero
7. Ortiz
8, Alfaro
9, Moniak
10.Kilome

[California_Dreamin]

Medina at #4...wow!

[andyb]

Looks like Squire and I got the right 10 (and the right top 5) if not in the exact order.

Bold prediction (bolstered by yet another positive take on Romero) is that he will be in the major league rotation after the All Star Break at some point. He just reminds me so much of Randy Wolf (stuff is a little different, but their athleticism and command are similar) and Wolf was on a fast track that got him to the majors in his second full minor league season. Romero is a year younger so this does not have to happen - but I would not be surprised if it did.

[bigegypt0417]

Medina at #4...wow!

I really like Medina at 4. He learned how to miss bats (10k's per 9) this season and while also improving his walk rate (2.9 per 9)

Reading will be a big test for him...

[andyb]

Not a prospect list per se, but Matt Winkelman is starting a series of 2017 review articles with the GCL. Not too much new but a good summary in one place:

2017 GCL Phillies Season Recap

[Austinfan]

These are the kind of tibits that raise eyebrows:

Jhordany Mezquita was the Phillies’ surprise 8th round pick in the 2017 draft. He signed for the same $50K contract that he had signed and the league office had voided a few months earlier, saving the Phillies some slot money. He’s a 19-year old with no baseball background who can really pitch. He finished the season with a mid-90s FB. Mezquita is another lefty with a low 90s fastball. He has less projection than Silva, but he has more advanced secondary pitches.

These kids arrive with little or no money. Even those who sign large bonuses leave it behind in the hands of their buscones and families. And what little money they earn here is sent back to their families. They rely on the meals the Phillies provide from local restaurants for breakfast and lunch. A local restaurant (the one that provides the breakfast) that isn’t open for dinner provides the evening meal for those players who show up at their door. I have driven past this restaurant and seen the large group of our players standing outside for the meal.

[no wonder these kids fill out when they get to eat three squares a day!]

Dalton Guthrie. I had a brief talk with Johnny Almarez where I told him I liked the kid. Mr. Almarez spoke effusively about his future.

Simon Muzziotti – Muzziotti is going to Carlos Tocci comps because he is a lanky Venezuelan center fielder. Muzziotti is also a plus runner with a good glove in center field, but he has a bit more power than Tocci. Muzziotti barely struck out in his GCL season, and likely has the contact abilities for an aggressive assignment to Lakewood.

[andyb]

Phillies article is posted. Chat later today.

2018 Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 Prospects | BaseballAmerica.com