Post-season Prospect Lists

[nycphils]

Ugly. From BP's scouting reports on AFL players:

Cornelius Randolph, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: The 10th pick in the 2015 Draft was supposed to hit, and instead he’s only hit a little. He’s still got the bat speed and he’s got a decent clue at the plate, but he hasn’t yet handled velocity well and it’s not like the pitchers throw slower when you get into the high-minors. The reason he has to hit is because there’s no secondary value here at all, although he’s not quite as bad an athlete as you’d expect for a guy already limited to being a bad left fielder. It’s not without hope, but it’s not what you’d like. —JS

[zambonir]

I am not questioning Valentin's value or 2017 performance, just that the suspension had any real effect. It seems to me his peak value came after the suspension. Now it is in decline again.

[nycphils]

With three straight drafts of OFs that were supposed to be advanced hitters and none of them actually seem to perform that way, I'm very concerned about our amateur scouting and Klentak's decision making. Really a huge waste of resources to blow three straight top 10 picks including a 1.1 if that's where this ends up.

That Randolph can't handle a good fastball is a pretty devastating indictment.

[Philsmania]

We've not been good at developing outfielders for some time now. We've seen a whole slew of high school outfielders we've drafted in the first round flop going back to Jeff Jackson (see also, Reggie Taylor, Greg Golson, Zach Collier, Larry Green, Jr. and now Randolph and Moniak have struggled). Really, the only outfielders we've successfully developed in the last twenty or so years who have had sustained ML success (excluding Brown's 2013 flash in the pan) are Burrell, Byrd and Bourn. Maybe you can say Santana as well in Milwaukee but we only partially developed him. Can Altherr and Williams (who has an asterisk since we only finished his development) break the mold?

[zambonir]

Well, the thing is Klentak didn't draft Randolph (neither did MacPhail), and he also didn't hire Almaraz. Even the Moniak draft had to be mostly based on inherited scouting apparatus. So we really don't know much about him yet (and I don't think you can say anything about Haseley, SSS, long season, was pitching too).

Just as firing Mackanin means this is finally 100% Klentak's major league team (even if the roster is still entirely inherited besides Velasquez) he may yet bring in more of his own scouting guys. And if development is still an issue, ditto Jordan and company.

[Austinfan]

As far as developing OFs, Herrera and Altherr are a pretty good start. Williams has improved as a hitter since he joined the system.
Drafting is another issue. But that's mostly past, Quinn is injuries, Cozens was a tools over hitting skills pick.
I'm not going to panic over Randolph at the tender age of 20 or Moniak at 19.
And Haseley has a college track record that suggests one should ignore his first couple wood bat months (Hoskins looked bat his first month at Williamsport, the rest is history).

[andyb]

One could argue that both Quinn and Cozens were good picks, and Randolph and Moniak are (at the moment) mediocre picks. Quinn has had injury issues but his overall package (plus speed and defense, average OBP, line drive power) is a potential 2-4 WAR CF. Cozens also has a plus major league power tool and dominated in AA before last season. They are good picks because they are second round picks. For the spot in the draft where we selected each of them they have delivered solid value.

Randolph and Moniak to this point have not delivered solid value for their position in the draft. We selected Randolph a half dozen spots before most predictions and his lack of defensive value limits his overall value. He'll need to hit much more than Quinn will to be a 4 WAR player for instance. And Moniak has been discussed often as a relatively low value for a 1-1 pick. Besides the fact that Senzel might have been the obvious other choice, Moniak just looks like a relatively low ceiling player at the moment for such a high pick. And it is not like we got a major discount for selecting him given his bonus was only $100K below Senzel.

There is not enough data on Haseley obviously to field many conclusions, but to say we are now better at drafting OF is not quite right. We are avoiding the Jeff Jacksons and Golsons of the world. But we have been doing for over 5 years (Larry Greene being the last example). It is possible we have veered too far in the other direction by not considering other tools enough in our outfield selections.

[allentown]

I am quite happy with the Quinn and Cozens picks. Second rounders with a decent chance to help the Phillies in the very near future. I am not pleased with the Randolph pick. He has thus far been a very limited player -- no speed, poor LF-only defense, not a power guy, and really his OBP skills turn out to be much less than advertised. I like Haseley and think he's shown he has a reasonable shot at joining the Phillies OF at some point. Moniak is a mixed bag, not an obvious flop, not what one hopes for from a 1.1 or what one can clearly label as a plus pick had be been at 1.10 -- still a guy who is hanging in at his level and has enough real tools that we can still reasonably hope he takes off in the near future. So, I'm a bit ambivalent of all of our first round OF picks to downright negative/pessimistic on Randolph, whom I am perhaps a tad premature in regard (oing as close to a bust -- not LGJ level of bust, but not a worthy first round (or even as good a pick as Quinn or Cozens, had we waited until the second round to take him).

We really haven't spent much of our draft power on pitchers, despite MacPhails declaration that he wants to grow our own and buy hitters. The draft, and really the international spending as well, tell a different story as we've strongly prioritized position players, especially OFs, when you throw Ortiz into the mix.

[andyb]

Adding Altherr to the equation it just enhances the importance of selecting toolsy OFs with top picks, just not necessarily first round picks. Not an OF but one of our most valuable picks in 2017 might end up being Jake Holmes. $500K is late 3rd/early 4th round slot territory and it looks like he is a solid value for the money. Altherr was a bargain though even he was overslot a bit.

In the first round one needs to expect tools AND polish. Which was why Crawford was such a good pick. They were hoping for that with Moniak but he has not delivered on it yet unfortunately. I still do like him as a prospect though. Just not as representing a good value for a 1.1 pick.

[Austinfan]

I'm all for tools past the 3rd round.
Maton (7th), Holmes (11th) this past draft.
Martin is maybe the worst pick other than Randolph, 4th rd 1B who was a 22 yr old senior, Hall at 14th was a better prospect coming out of college
Schneiner is a better bet, 2B/3B coming off a great college offensive season.
Same with Stobbe, HS power hitting 3B, long-shot but at least the upside was there

PHillies drafting their share of high pitchers
2017: Howard (2nd), Seabold (3rd), Lindbow (5th), Mezquita (8th)
2016: Gowdy (2nd), Romero (4th), Irvin (5th)

[bkox]

Phillies Hoskins, Romero named top prospects

[nycphils]

From the NY Penn League chat at BA.com - sounds like Franco but 5 levels lower:

Joseph (Philadelphia): What is your view of the high school players that the Phillies drafted in 2016 that played in this league? What are the prospects of Stobbe, Stephens and Kyle Young? Thanks

J.J. Cooper: Young is the one that stands out the most. Scouts/coaches were unimpressed with Stobbe’s approach. He has significant power but his approach sells out so much to try to drive the ball that a pitcher can just throw sliders off the plate over and over and know that Stobbe will never hurt him.

[Squire]

GCL Top 20 List includes Franklyn Morales, Jonathan Guzman and Simon Muzzioti (but not Pelletier).

[andyb]

That is probably how I would rank them. Pelletier does not profile that well defensively and the hitting statistics are affected by repeating the year even if he was age appropriate.

Morales was pretty clearly the top prospect on the team though maybe I am surprised that Brayan Gonzalez did not get mentioned too as he had a solid first year (and Muzziotti had a DSL year which makes him more advanced).

[nycphils]

Order is actually Muzziotti (#7), Guzman (#8) and Morales (#11)

Here's the blurb on Muzziotti:

Age: 18. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 175. Signed: Venezuela, 2016.

The Red Sox signed Muzziotti for $300,000 in 2015, but when Major League Baseball determined the Red Sox circumvented the international bonus pools to sign him, the league removed him and fourth other players from the organization. Muzziotti signed with the Phillies last year for $750,000, then made a strong impression around the league for his play on both sides of the ball this year in the GCL.

Muzziotti earned high praise for his defense in center field. He's a plus runner with a gliding stride who gets good jumps off the bat. Muzziotti has good range to both sides and goes back on the ball well, with an arm that's improved since his amateur days when an elbow injury hampered him. At the plate, Muzziotti has excellent hand-eye coordination and rarely swings and misses, striking out in just six percent of his plate appearances. He has superb bat control and plate coverage, using the whole field with a line-drive approach but not much power at this point.

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-gulf-coast-league-top-20-prospects/#DM7HPW3MUQfolSgM.99

[nycphils]

A couple of tidbits from Badler in the chat:

Joseph (Philadelphia): Which GCL Phillies are you most excited about and which are the most likely to make a leap forward? Thanks

Ben Badler: The three on the list. And scouts were pretty split on which one they liked the best of that group, but a lot of praise for each one. Ben Pelletier is another one to keep an eye on from that club. He was a 2016 draft pick but he played almost the full year as an 18-year-old and took some significant steps forward this year with the bat.

Tom (NJ): Did Jhordanny Mezquita get any consideration?

Ben Badler: His name came up, but more as a guy to keep an eye on. He does it more with savvy and polish for the level than pure stuff, but he put himself on the radar as a lefty with those type of results.

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-gulf-coast-league-top-20-prospects-chat/#jWc2ZLgwgeME1tY4.99

[nycphils]

From BP on Moniak from back at the end of the MilB season:

"5. Mickey Moniak, OF (Lakewood Blue Claws)

...“We”—the Baseball Prospectus prospect team as a group—have over 30 [live looks at Moniak].
...

Before he joined the Oakland A’s, Al Skorupa gave me a piece of pro scouting advice that has always stuck with me. Someone in the amateur scouting ranks—likely smarter than you, certainly with more information than you—decided to draft this guy. They saw something that could help a major-league team someday. It’s always good to remember that and look for it. With Moniak, naturally it isn’t hard to find. He shows excellent feel with the barrel and is a plus runner who is likely to stick in center field. If you try to get into his kitchen, he keeps his hands in well and turns on the pitch authoritatively. He has a pretty good feel for the strike zone and goes up to the plate with a plan.

...[but he has a hitch in his swing which is worse when worked away and trouble with spin and LHP]...

After all, Moniak was never supposed to have any questions about his hit tool. He was sold with a 7 hit tool, in part because he doesn’t look like Corey Ray. Is it an exaggeration to say that no 7 hitter could post a .236/.285/.342 line deep into the dog days of Summer? Maybe. But while the triple slash isn’t evidence on its own, the underlying issues he’s shown on the field reflect many of the concerns you’d have from merely looking at that triple slash.

The recent prospects we’ve thrown 7 hit tools on—who were also reasonable age and league comps for Moniak—include Raimel Tapia, Victor Robles, and Francisco Mejia. Tapia never hit lower than .305 at any minor-league stop. Robles is almost exactly a year older than Moniak and is hitting .322 in Double-A. As a 19-year-old he split his time between two A-ball levels and hit .280/.376/.423. Mejia is the ray of hope. He hit .243/.324/.345 as a 19-year-old in the Midwest League. He then rolled off a 50-game hit streak the following year. Of course, no one was calling him a future .300 hitter as a teenager. But these things can change rapidly. A year is an eternity in the life of a teenaged prospect.

...It hasn’t happened yet for Moniak. So yeah, I still don’t see $6 million in major-league tools here."

[andyb]

BA starting their top 10s with the NL East first. Braves today. Assume the Phillies by next week.

Time to post our top 10 projections? Note that Alfaro is still eligible as rookie eligibility is 130 at bats, not plate appearances.

1. Sixto Sanchez - Going with the high end, medium risk pitcher here. Still needs to develop his secondary pitches and prove durability. Floor is probably a pretty good closer.
2. JP Crawford - Plus defense and OBP. 800+ OPS in the second half. The team needs to put him at SS and leave him there.
3. Scott Kingery - Might need a couple months in AAA but now offers a potential 30 SB/15 HR 2B with solid defense.
4. Adam Haseley - Solid but unspectacular tools across the board. Should move quickly (A+ and AA in 2018) though it remains to be seen how good a CF he is.
5. Adonis Medina - Learned how to miss bats in 2017. While he might not have quite the fastball that Kilome and Dominguez have, he is a better rounded pitcher.
6. Jorge Alfaro - Still believe in the tools and the defense is improving. Average should regress next year but 20+ HRs are very possible.
7. Mickey Moniak - Struggled and tired his first full year though played in a tough park. Hit tool not as good as advertised but he does have speed and defense in addition to that.
8. Franklyn Kilome - K rate was down a bit this year but he still pitched well. He was always very raw but his stuff seems intact.
9. Jhailyn Ortiz - Curious if he makes the BA list. 961 OPS at age 18 in a college league impressed me. He will always strike out a lot but he is making lots of progress and has a really high ceiling.
10. JoJo Romero - Going off the board a bit because I think he is very low risk. Athletic LHP repeats his delivery well and did not miss a beat with his midseason promotion.

Next 5 (in no specific order): Quinn, Randolph, Dominguez, Cozens, Gamboa.

[Squire]

1. Sixto Sanchez, RHP
2. J.P. Crawford, SS
3. Scott Kingery, 2B
4. Adam Haseley, CF
5. Adonis Medina, RHP
6. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF
7. Mickey Moniak, CF
8. Jorge Alfaro, C
9. Franklyn Kilome, RHP
10. JoJo Romero, LHP

[andyb]

I swear I did not look at your list where the two toughest choices are Ortiz and Romero....