Post-season Prospect Lists

I’d guess the Braves, Yankees, White Sox are ahead of us - i’ll say we are 4th

We are in the top 6. A's, Reds, Blue Jays, Dodgers are 7-10.

Braves, White Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Rays remaining. 3 tomorrow and last 3 Friday.

And the list:

Phillies came in 5th. As expected the MLB list is a little different than others. They have always ranked Moniak higher (5th) than others.

Opening day bonus: the last prospect list of the offseason:

First Carlos De La Cruz mention in a prospect article.

Month into the season. Alfaro, Crawford and Kingery have all graduated. Sixto still #1 but after that I have no idea. Enyel might be 2. Quinn might be top 5

The minors have been about the biggest disaster you could imagine thus far.

Moniak hitting .219 with a sub.500 OPS and only 2 BB in 111ABs
Randolph hitting under .175 with a sub .500 OPS
Haseley managing a .270 BA, but with only 2 BB in over 100 ABs, he has a sub .700 OPS
Ortiz with a sub .500 OPS
Romero, Medina, Kilome, eshelman ALL surrendering over 5.50 ERA
Even Sixto, who’s been decent, has a 13/6 K/BB ratio in 17IP

Bleh.

Meh. SSS.
And De Los Santos, Hall, Listi, Quinn, Cozens, Canelo, etc. exceeding expectations.

Fwiw, Kiley McDaniel just tweeted that having seen Adonis Medina, if he's not better than Casey Mize, he's really close

Clearly some of it is SSS. Medina, for example.

However, some is not...we now have over 800 PA for Moniak across three levels, and it is safe to say he’s shown terrible plate discipline and little power. I think we can also safely say he’s not anywhere close what he was supposed to be...even if he isn’t yet a total bust (but he could be, can’t rule it out by any means).

At the time that he was drafted, Moniak was compared with Christian Yelich who is 6'4"; 200# today. When Moniak was drafted he was 6' 2'; 170#. The Phillies must not have liked his physique since they put him on a weight program and he is now up to 200#.
At the time of the draft, Moniak was supposed to have a good hitting eye and made solid contact as a hitter. Since then, TPTB have reworked his stance and swing in order to get more power out of him. It looks like the Phillies didn't want what Moniak was since they've pushed him into a different direction with his weight and hitting.
There is no way that adding thirty pounds to a player won't affect his quickness in the field and at the plate.
That begs the question of why did they draft him to begin with? It looks like part of the reason for Moniak's stalled development lays in the hands of the Phillies. Are the Phillies attempting to pound square pegs into round holes with Moniak and possibly Randolph as well?

I don't think our scouts are the problem, the development people are. I think what you state is exactly the problem. The Phillies are trying to re-make these guys too much and, instead, messing them up. They all do fairly well I rookie ball but then, when the development people really begin to work with them after rookie ball, they hit a wall in Lakewood. Randolph, Moniak, Haseley and now Ortiz all went splat up against the wall in Lakewood (although with Ortiz, the shoulder injuries may have something to do with his woes). The ultimate test of this may come when they all move on after becoming failed Phillies prospects. Will they put it together at their next stops?

With regard to Haseley, that one may be on the scouts. He wasn't considered a major draft prospect until his junior year at UVA. Anytime after guy comes out of nowhere and doesn't have a long body of work, he should be considered suspect, in my opinion. See, Jeff Jackson.

I'll stick this in here...one month analysis of our top prospects level-by-level

Lehigh Valley Hitters (OPS):
Cozens 977
Walding 897
Quinn 820
Valentin 744
Pullin 483

At this level the hitters are doing well, with the exception of Pullin who was at best a borderline prospect anyway. Walding is really taking walks, and Cozens' eye seems improved. Cozens has 7 HR and Walding has 8 doubles. Quinn has stolen 11 bases with 1 CS and is healthy so far.

Lehigh Valley Pitchers (ERA):

De Los Santos 1.07
Eflin 4.05
Irvin 4.50
Waguespack 4.50
Eshelman 7.11
Thompson 10.50

De Los Santos has done well, although his outings have been short due to high pitch counts. Eflin has a 3/1 K/BB ratio. Irvin is 3/1 with a higher K/IP ratio, but has yielded 3 HR. Waguespack is 4.5/1 but is giving up too many hits right now. Eshelman is getting bombed, and Thompson is pitching BP.

Reading Hitters (OPS):
Z. Green 927
Canelo 925
Hernandez 815
Grullon 785
Randolph 532

Green is a nice surprise, finally healthy, has 5 HR and 4 doubles. Canelo and Grullon are the real deal defensively, and are hitting well for their defensive roles. Canelo has 13 extra-base hits and both have 4 HR. Randolph still is struggling, even after his 3-hit game last night including 2 doubles got him to the Mendoza line (barely).

Reading pitching (ERA):
Hunter 0.00
Ed Garcia 0.51
Dominguez 2.08
Suarez 3.90
Kilome 4.98
Romero 7.18

The three relievers at the top of the list have a 37/9 K/BB rate and all look great (now that Hunter is actually pitching). Suarez has been OK, and has an excellent 4/1 ratio, although he's giving up too many hits. Kilome has a 3/1 ratio and has pitched well recently. Romero has been surprisingly bad in almost all peripherals.

Clearwater Hitters (OPS)
Listi 1008
Hall 996
Pujols 772
Gamboa 658
Haseley 635
Gomez 501
Moniak 480

Listi is old for CLW, but I'm listing him because a 1000+ OPS playing full time deserves respect. Hall is leading the FSL in HR with 10 and has taken 8 walks, which is good for him in 100 ABs. Gamboa is walking but not much else. Haseley isn't walking or hitting for power, which is honestly a surprise. Gomez and Moniak are disasters.

Clearwater Pitching (ERA):
Falter 2.35
Mills 3.12
Sanchez 4.71
Seabold 5.33
Medina 5.66

Falter has a 5/1 K/BB ratio and has been solid in all respects. Mills has a 5.5/1 ratio but has been hit much harder, including yielding 3 HR. Sanchez is suffering bad BABIP luck and has walked more than his share. Seabold is walking too many, 10 in 25 IP, despite a 2.5/1 ratio. Medina is really struggling, I suspect he's got a minor injury/dead arm.

Lakewood Hitters (OPS)
(keep in mind that nobody ever hits at Lakewood (except Hall last year!)):
Maton 797
Stobbe 769 (injured)
Markham 719
Muzziotti 710 (injured)
Stephen 657
Brito 538
Ortiz 496

Maton is an older low-A player, but 797 as a SS at Lakewood is encouraging. He has 9 doubles. Brito is at least walking, though he's sub-Mendoza. Ortiz has been discussed a lot, showing no power and striking out in 50% of his ABs. His lack of hitting is bewildering after his last two years.

Lakewood Pitching (ERA)
Parkinson 0.52
Rosso 1.35
Stewart 1.86
Jones 2.63
Brogdon 3.63
Howard 3.68

Parkinson has a 2/1 ratio but is walking too many and has been lucky. Rosso has a 3/1 ratio and is yielding few hits. Stewart has a 6/1 ratio with a lot of Ks, and his walks are way down from previous years. Jones has only a 2/1 ratio but has yet to yield a professional HR. Brogdon and Howard both have 5/1 ratios, have given up 5 HRs between them, and have been a bit unlucky. Also keep in mind that pitchers get a huge boost from the Lakewood environment, just as hitters pay a penalty.

I am coming to the opinion that the scouts aren't the problem, the player development people are, especially with regard to the hitters. When the Phillies drafted or signed these guys, it didn't raise eyebrows. And, they all seemed to do fine in rookie ball. However, when they move up to Lakewood or higher when the development people really begin to work with them, they all head dramatically South. Perhaps the development people are tinkering with their swings too much or altering their approaches at the plate which have taken them completely out of their comfort zones. Regardless, there is a clear trend of our supposedly top position player prospects hitting a wall in low A ball .

With regard to Ortiz, his shoulder injury could have something to do with his woes.

One possible "blame the scouts" could be Haseley who frankly didn't have a long body of work before his junior year. Guys who come along out of nowhere should be a red flag, in my opinion.

But, getting good back to my "blame the development people" theory, the ultimate test of this could come when Randolph, Moniak and Hasely (and Ortiz?) all leave the organization after being failed Phillies prospects. It would be interesting to see if they put it together with their new organizations.

When Marti Wolever was blowing first round picks they were in the 20-30 range,

Can you really split hairs between scouting and development? When they make a pick, they should already know not only what they like about the player currently, but how they envision developing the player.

But if it really is development, it will eventually be time to clean house, since Jordan and a fair number of the managers and instructional types are holdovers.