Post-season Prospect Lists

[andyb]

I think Ortiz is a better prospect than Kilome, and I like Kilome. I just have an irrational bias in favor of anyone who actually hits at WMPT or LAK.

All the lists have some bias and I am guessing Fangraphs is looking at risk more with younger guys at low levels getting penalized. There is also much less difference between 50 and 150 than between 25 and 50. I like Ortiz too. Just don't know enough about the prospects around him to say whether top 100 is justified. Frankly the one guy I am really high on that gets in few of these rankings is Jojo Romero. I think he is in our rotation before the end of 2018.

[phillychuck]

Yeah, Andy, I agree about Romero, too. I think I'd have Ortiz in the 80s and Romero around

[nycphils]

BP’s Top 101 came out a couple days ago:

13 Sixto
14 JPC
31 Kingery
36 Alfaro
46 Medina
68 Kilome
92 Arquimedez Gamboa

Just Missed:

Jhalyn Ortiz “...there’s enough potential in his bat that he could crack the list no matter where he lands on the defensive spectrum.”

From the Chat:
Mike (Ontario): Why was Mickey Moniak on the MLB Pipeline list but not this one?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I can't speak to other lists, but we had 30+ staff looks at him between Jarrett, Greg, and me, and he was never really in consideration. Jarrett and I both wrote longer form pieces about the why this year.

Other: White Sox with 8, and Phillies, Braves, Dodgers with 7 each (although the Yankees have 6 but a comment in the chat indicated essentially it was close because they’d have another 5 if the list went to 150)

[Philsmania]

It's been interesting to see how Crawford has bounced back and forth in the rankings over the last calendar year. From elite Top 10 prospect to barely in the top 100 to back in at least the top 30 on most lists.

[andyb]

Well they are the high ones on Alfaro.

There are also wide differences of opinion on Kilome and Gamboa. Kilome's drop in K rate and difficulty commanding offspeed pitches have led to the differences there. Although I would say that if the raw stuff is there we may be overreacting to him pitching in a tough environment the first time (Reading is as bad for pitchers as it is good for power hitters).

Watching some people love Gamboa and others completely ignore him (like Law not putting him in his top 25) is fascinating. More people like Brito for instance and Gamboa outperformed him at the same age playing a tougher defensive position. And Gamboa has more tools except for maybe the hit tool where it is arguable. It will be interesting to watch those two with an extra year of maturity and strength outside of the Lakewood suffocating offensive environment.

Small note on BP - Ortiz made their just missed list also. So we have 8 out of their top 113 I think.

[phillychuck]

So let's say their was this hypothetical player who got a large international bonus to sign, let's say the second highest bonus in his signing year. Then he came directly to the states, played a full year in rookie ball as a 17-year-old (vs mostly 19- and 20-year-olds) , posted nearly a .760 OPS for a RC+ of roughly 130. Scouts were surprised that he was much more athletic than they thought, and had a better arm. He then played advanced rookie ball in one of the worst offensive environments in the minor leagues, and at 18 (playing against mostly US college kids and older HS and international signees) posted a .960-ish OPS, leading the league, although he was a few ABs short of qualifying. He finished 3rd in the league in HRs, first in HR/AB, first in the league in doubles, first in the league in SLG, hit .300, and walked nearly 10% of his PAs. His RC+ approached 200. Reviews of his work ethic were great, and his physique actually improved from year-to-year.

And this guy can't crack the top 10 on many prospect lists for his team? And he doesn't make the top 100, finishing behind a teammate who has had RC+'s of 57, 65, and 105 in his 3 minor league seasons, and is primarily known as a glove-first middle infielder, the kind of player who grows on AAAA trees and can be signed for a spring-training invite every season?

Ortiz needs a better publicist..

[Austinfan]

I think most LA infielders are overrated, you're projecting guys who are 155 lbs to develop strength and gap power, because if they don't, well even for a good defender, .270/.320/.360/.680 isn't as good as Galvis.

The difference with someone like Crawford, even though he was a late bloomer, he had the glove, great plate discipline, and contact so even if he never developed gap power, .270/.350/.360/.710 is passable for a top defensive SS. And with his frame, gap power was just a matter of mechanical tweaks.

[andyb]

I am not sure there is a single player in the Philles system who is 155 pounds. Even Grenny Cumana is likely more than that 5 years after he signed. I am just not sure what lazy stereotype this comment is trying to suggest. Yes Gamboa is probably a little overrated in that prospect list because someone likes him. And he is a solid 6'0" 175, probably 190 by now since they never update the weights.

Will Gamboa be as good as Galvis? Who knows with any 19-20 year old. But Galvis was a touted prospect and so is Gamboa. He clearly has the tools to be better than Galvis (who was a 1-2 win player so really not that good). He is bigger and faster than Galvis and has better offensive results at a similar point in their career. I kind of don't get why you are in love with Galvis. He has a .287 career OBP and .309 last year was his career high. That is the main reason he is mediocre. I thought you were in love with high OBP guys with good hit tools? Galvis added power in his career, though that was partly the magic baseballs in play this year and is just less important than OBP. You actually don't seem to realize that the 350 OBP you project for Crawford would make him dramatically better than Galvis and probably a top 10 SS in baseball with his above average defense.

And was Crawford late developing? He made the majors when he was 22 and has a starting job at 23. Is that late?

[allentown]

Gamboa also has a plus glove, plus speed and put up a .706 OPS at LKW as a 20-year old, which is fine. Everything I've read says he can stick at SS and be at least average defensively and likely m ore than that. He still can't hit LHP, but does quite well against RHP. This is not the only list to put him in the top 10. Winkelman, who follows the Phillies as closely as anybody has him at 7.

I'm not sure why you consider LA IFs to be over-rated. A lot of starting MLB middle IFs are LA players. You don't need a super big bat at SS to be a success. I think you've been a booster of Hernandez lately. He was always over-rated, until suddenly he matured and was a plus overall starting MLB 2B. Galvis also was always over-rated and you always criticized the rest of the board for giving him too much of an age/league adjustment benefit. Then he was our starting SS, then he hit 20 HRs. I won't claim he was ever a star, but including good D with is bat, he was close to average for an MLB starting SS. Whatever else one can say about him, Freddy was a competent and cheap starting SS for us. Likely Gamboa will be the same, at a time when money will once again be a constraint for the team. That has value.

[Austinfan]

Neither Galvis or Hernandez were highly rated when signed.
A lot of LA infielders are smaller guys with good athleticism, but for every Altuve there's a Canelo or Mora.
The real test is when they get to 21-22, do they add strength, make contact, slow down?
I just think none deserve to be in the top 10 or even 20 until they have one A ball or higher season that shows they are more than a 16 year old projection.

This is different from an athletic guy with a projectable frame.

Here are some sizes when signed:

Torres 5'11 155 $665K
Guzman 6'0 159 $60K
L Garcia 5'11 170 $2.5M
Gonzalez 5'10 176 $900K
Brito 6'1 155 $650K
Cumana 5'5 145
Gamboa 6'0 175 $900K
Canelo 5'10 156
J Gomez 5'11 175
E Alvarez 5'11 165
Mora 5'11 150

There's a lot of projection involved, as Tocci showed, sometimes skinny players never add strength.

[julio]

I think most LA infielders are overrated, you're projecting guys who are 155 lbs to develop strength and gap power, because if they don't, well even for a good defender, .270/.320/.360/.680 isn't as good as Galvis.

Galvis lifetime: .245/.287/.372/.659
Galvis last 3 years: .253/.295/.375/.670
Galvis 2017: .255/.309/.382/.690

I might argue that the stats you cite are Freddy Galvis. an OBP/SLG of .320/360 is probably as valuable as Galvis' .309/.382 (since we know OPS over-values SLG vs. OBP) - and 2017 was easily Galvis' best season. His three-year average is more likely reality - and that's less than the numbers you disparaged.

[andyb]

It is always hard to figure out if there is a point in your posts. This is a random list of middle infielders. Hint - most middle infielders are smaller than other positions. Nothing to do with Latin America. Cherry-picking a list of random signings just tells us nothing. And stereotyping every Latin American SS as the exact same thing is just plain wrong. So you compose a list of relatively low dollar signees. So what. Gamboa is clearly one of our top 20-25 prospects, maybe better. Which is a good outcome for his age and the size of bonus he got. On that list expectations will be much higher for Luis Garcia than anyone else. He could be a top 10 prospect if he performs well in a year or two.

Telling us that 16-year-old prospects have a wide variety of outcomes is not telling us anything we don't know. Saying that no Latin American prospect deserves a top 10 ranking for like 5 years because they are skinny also tells us nothing except maybe you are avoiding trying to rank the prospects, and that is kind of the point of this thread.

[allentown]

Every young player signed is a severe projection, because even if fully physically developed, as with Larry Greene or Cozens, the skills are raw to very raw and need to be developed. The presence of unfixable holes in the players' abilities isn't known. Even a player with a good work ethic in H.S. or college can lose it with a big bonus in his pocket, especially once he is old enough to get into clubs.

BTW, Jimmy Rollins was 5-7, 175 and Garry Maddox was 6-3, 175. Gamboa isn't drastically small.

[andyb]

The attitude of I can't rank them until they get to AA unless they are American is just wrong and that is what is being presented. Gamboa was signed at 16. Was there some projection involved with any 16-year-old? Sure. That is why 16-year-olds generally don't get ranked until they do something like Ortiz did. The really high bonuses like Ortiz and Garcia got this year do probably deserve some sort of speculative ranking based on their scouting reports. Rankings are always a combination of tools and performance.

Gamboa has both though. When I posted that somebody likes him a lot to put him in the top 100, it was a sense that he was probably ranked a bit too high. But it is not at all that he shouldn't be ranked. The kid played last year in Lakewood at age 19 and put up a 700+ OPS in a really difficult environment with decent BB rates and growing power. And he is reportedly a good defensive SS, good enough to move an average defensive SS (Brito) to 2B.

That's a prospect in my book. Maybe not top 100 in baseball yet, but top 15 for us. Our depth also means top 15 for us is top 10 for most organizations. He does not have to be Jimmy Rollins yet (who handled Low A a year younger) to be a prospect. Galvis got to Low A earlier also, but he did not master the offensive side like Gamboa just did and frankly lacks some of the tools Gamboa has. That is how we rank players - tools and performance - and Gamboa clearly belongs somewhere medium-high in our organization.

[nycphils]

Yes Gamboa is probably a little overrated in that prospect list because someone likes him. And he is a solid 6'0" 175, probably 190 by now since they never update the weights.

One of the reasons Gamboa is highly rated is he’s gotten significantly bigger - here’s from BA in December:

Gamboa, a switch-hitter, has added size and strength since signing at age 16. He is now 6-foot-2 and 195 pounds. Jordan called Gamboa a plus runner with a plus arm.
Read more at https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/arquimedes-gamboa-shows-across-board-improvement/#fqPMS8oF7u6jGOeo.99

[allentown]

That's very good size for a SS. He doesn't need to add more bulk.

[Austinfan]

That of course is the key, how they play when they bulk up, I think that's one of the issues with Moniak, he got stronger and lost some bat speed - and he was 18 when drafted.
It's why LA players are far riskier, even with Ortiz the question was whether he could maintain his athleticism given he was so big at such a young age.
One reason Morales got a big bonus is there's less risk projecting him because he has a man's body and ML velocity, so the only question is how much upside is left, not whether he'll even develop a ML FB.

It's good that Gamboa has a full sized body, yes, some smaller players can excel, but we've seen LA players who've never developed sufficient pop to have a real shot - remember, we're talking top 100, above average starters (i.e. 3-4 WAR). Galvis was probably never top 200, to be a legitimate top 100 prospect at SS, even as a plus fielder you probably should project to .750+ OPS, and that's hard to do without either off the charts plate discipline (.370+ OPS) and/or alley power (.150+ ISO).

Hernandez is a good example, he got his OBP (.373) up to where he's in the top ten for leadoff hitters, and improved his fielding to average/above average. And his ISO is over .100.

[andyb]

Nearing the end of prospect list season. MLB top 30s start next week. Today we have the Athletic's overall top 50. It is Bowden doing the ranking so grain of salt applies:

-12 Scott Kingery
-29 Sixto Sanchez
-32 JP Crawford

Ohtani, Vlad Jr., Acuna at the top of the list. Senzel 13th.

Bowden: Ranking the top 50 prospects in baseball

[andyb]

MLB.com NL East Top 30s today. Good news is no Phillies list as the top 10 organizations are released Tuesday-Friday of next week.

[Squire]

Right now we know that the Yankees, Rays, BlueJays, Phillies and Braves are all in the Top 10.