Phils sign Realmuto 5/$115M

[phillychuck]

According to twitter.

JUST IN: JT Realmuto has signed a 5-yr/$115M contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.

️ @craigmish was on #TMA and believed the Realmuto sweepstakes would be coming to an end... #MLB #MLBHotStove pic.twitter.com/57NXn4zTSe

— SportsGrid ( @SportsGrid ) January 26, 2021

Realmuto to Phillies confirmed. @CraigMish reported $115.5M

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) January 26, 2021

PS--how do I get tweets to display better?

[PC - I go to the tweet in Twitter (in my browser), select "embed tweet" from the dropdown menu, and copy the tweet code, then paste it into a post here. I've updated the two you linked, above. - J]

[Lucky_Beagle]

Glad to see it

[andyb]

I think the best method is letting Julio edit in the background: I think it has something to do with the mobile Twitter site.

[Mod's note: Hah. Lazy sod! - J]

Got to love the extra 0.1 on the AAV. Agents and ego drive these things and $23.1 (5/115.5) is better than $23.0 even if timing and bonuses are more important.

[el-pietro]

Very happy with this. Happy with the AAV, the length and with the signal this sends about competitiveness in 2021. I would expect them to sign a Short stop as well at tbis point and maybe even a starter.

[jimbomill]

There hasn't been this much rejoicing since they ate Robin's minstrels!

[Austinfan]

I go off $7M per WAR as the "efficient point" on FAs.
So a little more than 16 WAR makes this a good deal.
He was around 20 WAR the last four years, so even with age related decline, he should be 15+ the next four.
Which means as a 34 year old part-time catcher he'd only have to put up 2 WAR.

[andyb]

I go off $7M per WAR as the "efficient point" on FAs.

More like $8.6 million the last 3 years. Pandemic does not help, but baseball revenues justify close to $9 million per WAR.

The Cost of a Win in Free Agency in 2020

[zambonir]

PS--how do I get tweets to display better?

Click on three dots at the top right of the tweet, select "Embed tweet" and go from there. Still doesn't look as good as the old way, you don't get graphics (when applicable).

Realmuto to Phillies confirmed. @CraigMish reported $115.5M

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) January 26, 2021

[andyb]

Contract is back loaded and 2021 friendly. $20 million in 2021 but $10 million deferred. Then $23.875 for the next 4 years to add up to 5/115.5 (23.1 AAV).

Phillies To Sign J.T. Realmuto

[zambonir]

The Phillies certainly won this negotiation. It would have taken $130 or maybe even 6 years to sign him last season (though not extending him with last season included was still a miss). And supposedly they went into the market asking for even more.

Pretty much the fourth straight year we've fretted and complained in December and most of January and then watched them come through in February (or March, in Arrieta's case). Just too bad the results haven't been there!

Also the first year we won't be giving up a comp pick, which is nice. (I think it's safe to say we're not signing Bauer).

[andyb]

I always thought the time to do the extension was 2 years ago when they could have baked 2 years of lower cost into the equation. Now that would have been a 7 or 8 year deal, but in the long run it probably would work out better even if they paid a small tax one year (or never did the Segura deal.....).

[zambonir]

JT may have never been that interested in an early extension either. I thought it was fine to give it one season to make sure both teams were happy. It was dumb to let last year go to arbitration but it's possible JT's agent was already looking for too much.

The tax would have had no tangible or prohibitively costly impact on the Phillies, especially after re-setting this year. But Middleton is no Steinbrenner of the South.

Was wondering why no bonus, that kind of feels like a win for the Phillies too (especially given the deferral).

Realmuto's 5-year, $115.5M deal with #Phillies has an unusual structure, sources say.

No signing bonus. No options. No buyouts.

— Jayson Stark ( @jaysonst ) January 26, 2021

[andyb]

Was wondering why no bonus,

I think the reality was that nobody was offering a front loaded contract so it was more about the overall amount. Everything in baseball is guaranteed and the lack of an option is more money within the first 5 years to JT rather than offloading a buyout further out.

A little surprised there is not a 2-year opt out, but maybe that is too risky for a catcher to count on if it costs then guaranteed dollars in the contract.

More from the Athletic:

How J.T. Realmuto, Phillies slow-danced to record deal amid 'Sign J.T.' drumbeat

[phillychuck]

So where does that leave us in terms of competing?

C-Best player in baseball at the position
1B-young player who has skills but is below average statistically at his position
2B-Segura--below average at 2B
SS-who knows? open? Galvis?
3B-young player with potential to be very good
LF-declining older player(s)
CF-replacement level
RF-one of the better players at his position in the game

Looks like about an average lineup to me. And the pitching is below average even projecting Nola, Wheeler, and Eflin staying healthy. They need to do more to compete, or get very lucky with Howard and a couple of minor leaguers, or a combination of career years.

[BaseballCat]

Doing my best Snoopy happy dance right now.

[Taudawg]

If you bring back Didi, the same lineup (Fangraphs) ranked as 5th best in baseball last year. The starting pitching staff ranked 10th. The bullpen ranked 30th and was not even close to 29th. Team fielding was 24th.

[phillychuck]

The optimistic take is the lineup is pretty good, and good coaching/GM work can upgrade the bullpen. Realistically, positional OPS's best realistic case would be:

C-800
1B-900
2B-700
SS-750
3B-850 (with a lot of variability)
LF-750
CF-680? (if that good)
RF-920

That should be an 800-ish OPS lineup if the at-bats are weighted toward the better players. So best case it's a great offensive team. About 3rd or 4th in the NL.

[Taudawg]

I can agree with that. My take is the lineup and the starting staff are not really the weaknesses of this team. They need some starting depth but that bullpen has been a train wreck. I really think they win the division last year with a league average bullpen. The bullpen was historically bad in 2020 - top 10 worst in history of the game bad.

[phillychuck]

BBreference has the Colorado and Pittsburgh bullpens both worse than ours last year! We sure seemed worse from watching...

2020 National League Season Summary | Baseball-Reference.com

[zambonir]

In a lot of ways the team is as good or bad as its young players. Assuming they add a SS, if Kingery and Haseley can improve and Hoskins can maintain his health/2020 level of production, that's a really good line-up, and you can just tinker with the bench or upgrade at the deadline.

Similarly, the rotation really turns on Howard, not whatever extra veteran part they sign. But that can also be addressed at deadline.

I think both Kingery and the bullpen were so freakishly bad that the team is going to get a couple of wins even if Kingery still isn't great, or the bullpen is merely below average.