Phils sign Realmuto 5/$115M

Taudawg 2021-01-26 21:51:41 UTC #21

Sorted a little differently...Phillies bullpen ERA was 7.06 easily the worst. Rockies sort of don't count 6.77 ERA with 50% games @Coors Field.

The one underlying number that may offer evidence the Phillies bullpen had an incredible year of bad luck is .376 BABIP. That won't happen again, but they still need to improve the bullpen and on defense.

phillychuck 2021-01-26 22:05:18 UTC #22

The optimistic take is the lineup is pretty good, and good coaching/GM work can upgrade the bullpen. Realistically, positional OPS's best realistic case would be:

C-800
1B-900
2B-700
SS-750
3B-850 (with a lot of variability)
LF-750
CF-680? (if that good)
RF-920

That should be an 800-ish OPS lineup if the at-bats are weighted toward the better players. So best case it's a great offensive team.

zambonir 2021-01-26 22:09:50 UTC #23

It's hard to read much into the stats from a 60-game season. Heck, it's hard enough to make much of bullpen stats to begin with. With that small of a sample (especially with 7-inning games also in the mix), the inflated numbers include guys who were only on the team for two weeks, as well as guys who stunk early but got better (including a few of the youngsters and even Hector). Conversely of course, they lost Alvarez, and Romero got worse instead of better (but in a normal season who knows what another 100 games would have brought), and all the trade acquisitions were terrible.

Anyway, what happened happened, the stats don't lie, but they also don't project. Especially with five or six guys definitely gone.

I'd still bring back Parker again if possible (not guaranteed)

andyb 2021-01-26 22:21:00 UTC #24

I wonder if the AAV calculation will come in at a little less than $23.1 million because of the deferred money. It might still be something like $22.9 million but remember the Scherzer AAV on his 7/210 contract came in at $28.7 million because of the deferrals.

Regardless we are now about $38 million under the threshold. Was always thinking they were going to top out in the $190 to $195 range so that might be $18-$23 million more for a SS, one more relief pitcher, and probably a starter with lots of incentives.

andyb 2021-01-26 22:27:33 UTC #25

Fangraphs has us up to 80 wins!

Austinfan 2021-01-26 23:18:00 UTC #26

What people pay is not efficient, the top FAs tend to be overpaid due to the "Winner's Curse."

So I use $7M as a conservative value that allows you to add WAR in free agency without crippling your budget under the cap.

donaldorc 2021-01-26 23:32:37 UTC #27

This is great news. So glad to hear it.

allentown 2021-01-27 00:38:29 UTC #28

I think that, like Harper, Realmuto's contract is fine. The Phillies cap problem isn't that they've overpaid stars or paid too much for stars. The problem is the lack of low cost homegrown young players and dumpster dives who have/can add significant plus WAR. Nola has done his bit. Bohm has a chance. Kingery a big disappointment so far. Hope for Hoskins. Hope for Howard? I feel good about Eflin. The internal relievers a major disappointment. We can't draft/July 2/ and develop an OF to save our souls. Burrell was Burrell when we drafted him and it was an obvious pick. That has been a very serious problem. The team says it believes in strength up the middle and spends $ and bonuses accordingly, but we've come up very short on C, SS, 2B, CF. Part of it is losing guys through trade or just dropping them, but we developed Rollins and Ruiz and then not much else.