Phils Sign Bryce Harper, extend spring training invite

Philsmania 2019-03-02 00:51:43 UTC #165

Looks like Harper dodged an awkward situation by not signing with the Giants.

bkox 2019-03-02 01:30:35 UTC #166

As Matt WInkelman points out on twitter.. the hug between Middleton and Boras on this video here is really something. Could be a good sign when dealing with Boras clients in the future. (Hug is at the 34 second mark)

BostonRoss 2019-03-02 01:52:41 UTC #167

Hopefully the Phillies off-seasons will be getting shorter!

zambonir 2019-03-02 02:09:24 UTC #168

I forgot that Knapp was supposed to wear it until Halladay died.

Had also been worn by Harang, Obertholtzer, Ellis and A.J. Burnett.

donaldorc 2019-03-02 02:15:50 UTC #169

Well said. I feel the same way.

tom81 2019-03-02 03:06:53 UTC #170

Maybe he chose #3 in honor of the greatest player of all time, even if he wasn’t a Phillie. The “Bambino?” I think a big part of Harper’s desire to play the rest of his career in Philly and CBP is to chase history.

Philsmania 2019-03-02 14:01:11 UTC #171

For the record, the deal became official last night.

Check out @Phillies’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/Phillies/status/1101696196626841600?s=09

andyb 2019-03-02 14:29:03 UTC #172

Well, going by the Yankees' original uniform strategy he'll make a fine #3 hitter. And Segura is good for #2. Franco might hit in his spot also (#7). Williams is an OK 5th hitter in certain lineups. I draw the line at Kingery though (#4). He'll need to switch uniforms with Rhys.

julio 2019-03-02 17:05:02 UTC #173

3 posts were split to a new topic: Phillies 2019 Lineup Thoughts

LoneStarPhan 2019-03-02 18:54:39 UTC #174

For those wondering what number Rodriguez (Sean) will wear now that #3 goes to Harper, the answer for now is #13.

Purduke 2019-03-02 19:06:43 UTC #175

Actually the state where you earn the income probably has more to do re bonus treatment than the residency state.

I wasn't sure about Pennsylvania but I can guarantee you that if Bryce had signed with the Hartford Yard Goats that he would be paying income tax on the bonus as long as it was part and parcel of the employment agreement.

This article from Forbes indicates that Pennsylvania basically treats it the same way.

zambonir 2019-03-02 19:17:18 UTC #176

Fascinating that Eskin gets to ask the first press conference question.

Counterpoint, Purduke. This says he can avoid being a PA resident at all, so long as he doesn't spend too many days there separate from the games. And also he may well live in New Jersey (though that would mean higher state taxes, but lower city payroll taxes).

I don't claim to know which is right but I'm sure Boras's 100 employees can deal with it.

julio 2019-03-02 21:45:05 UTC #177

If he's really all about avoiding state taxes, and minimizing the Philly wage tax...well, Arden is pretty nice. (Hint: It's in Delaware.) But somehow I don't think Harper is going to let his tax advisor determine where he and his wife live, in-season.

zambonir 2019-03-02 21:53:59 UTC #178

Even rich people make those kind of choices for cheaper neighborhoods or lower taxes! Just on a very different scale. I think so long as Nevada remains his primary residence it probably doesn't matter very much. He'll pay those 81 days of taxes in Philly and wherever he lives and he'll pay the 81 in the other areas.

Coincidentally, Andrew McCutchen's pay stub leaked a few years ago. I think he definitely lived in Pittsburgh full-time (and probably still does).

donaldorc 2019-03-02 21:56:14 UTC #179

Harper is going to be adored by the Phillie Phans. His comments in his presser were purely for the blue-collar phans in our stands.

ZardozMD 2019-03-03 14:04:21 UTC #180

Still a great signing for the club regardless.

tom81 2019-03-03 14:59:16 UTC #181

Yes if the best he does in 5-7 WAR/year but can do that consistently it will be a great signing for us.

andyb 2019-03-03 15:24:20 UTC #182

That is a flawed statistical premise (the 538 article). If you create a subset of players with an 8 WAR early season you are biasing the study to include players who peak early. A more proper analysis would look at any player who has had an 8 WAR season, early or late, and then see what their career path was like.

phillychuck 2019-03-03 16:13:53 UTC #183

Yeah, 538 used to have higher standards for publication than this. They should have at least mentioned the possible biasing. Here is the money quote:

"FiveThirtyEight examined all players in MLB history who have had one season of 8 or more WAR — but only one — before turning 26, and then we studied the trajectory of those players’ careers."

I actually think the data is more against Harper than the study shows...Harper has had 6 seasons below 8 WAR and some of their "comps" have had only 1 or 2 of those. And the modern defensive adjustments (extreme shifts, etc.) have impacted will continue to impact him more severely unless he adjusts. I'm still fine with him at 5 or 6 WAR annually. A WAR is worth somewhere between 7-10 $M, and we're paying him as if it's worth about 5 $M.

zambonir 2019-03-03 16:45:24 UTC #184

He's averaged just 3.9 (BBRef) or 4.3 (Fangraphs) WAR. Fangraphs rated him much higher this past year, 3.5 to 1.3, and projections say 4.8 this year.

If his defense bounces back and/or he moves down the defensive spectrum than it could rise, but I'm not expecting more than 4-5 WAR on average for the next five years. Presumably CBP means it will definitely trend higher (don't know if projections have been updated for that?). But could still be 7 one year, 3 another. Even in 2017 when he had a 1.008 OPS it was less than 5 (from both sites).

He doesn't have to repeat 2015 five times to be worth it, and the Phillies still didn't (and don't) have anyone that good.