Phillies 2019 Lineup Thoughts

[Austinfan]

McCutchen should bat 2nd, high OPB, decent speed and balances LH/RH.
Segura is more of a contact hitter, and I'd bat him 6th or so.
Reaulmuto 5th, Herrera 7th, Franco 8th.

[Mod's note: broke this out to a new thread, from Harper Signing thread. We can argue about lineups for a while!]

[phillychuck]

Veterans at the top:

Cutch
Segura
Harper
Hoskins
Realmuto
Herrera
Franco
P
Hernandez

Keeping Hernandez at the top:

Hernandez
Cutch
Harper
Hoskins
Realmuto
Segura
Franco
herrera
P

[tom81]

I agree, I’d bat Cutch 2nd most days. The wild card for me is Herrera. If he gets on one of his unconscious hitting everything zone he could bat 2nd or third.

[julio]

Hernandez and McCutchen are the best table-setters in the lineup (highest OBP not slated for the 3-4 holes). Put them at the top of the order, followed by the big RBI guys (highest OPS, highest SLG) - Harper and Hoskins. I'd structure the lineup from there down on the basis of OPS.

Based on the past two season cumulative data:

		BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	OPS+
McCutchen	R	.267	.366	.455	.188	.820	121
Hernandez	S	.273	.364	.389	.117	.758	101
Harper	L	.279	.401	.539	.260	.940	143
Hoskins	R	.249	.364	.525	.276	.889	134
Realmuto	R	.278	.336	.467	.189	.803	121
Segura	R	.302	.345	.421	.119	.765	112
Herrera	L	.267	.318	.436	.169	.753	98
Franco	R	.247	.295	.434	.187	.729	91

You could switch Hernandez and McCutchen to alternate L-R-L bats, but I think McCutchen's greater pop in the leadoff spot outweighs that, generally.

Similarly, you could switch Hoskins and Harper in 3-4, to move the LH bat, but I don't think this would make a lot of difference.

The downside to this is that the lineup really does tail off in 7-8, if the past two seasons' data reflect what we can expect from Herrera and Franco. But that doesn't mean I want to diminish the effectiveness of the top 2/3 of the lineup by putting a stiff in there (so I can move a better hitter to the 8-hole).

To be honest, if Franco's two-season numbers are the real Franco (OPS+ of 91), given that we're not talking about tolerating his bat because of his defense...if that's the real Maikel Franco, he needs to be outta here. Mediocre defense? I want an OPS+ of 110 or better (e.g., 10% better than league-average bat). Below-average defense plus below-average bat? No - if we can expect an OPS+ that's 10% below average from third base... well, we can carry that, but give me an outstanding defender with that disappointing bat, OK?

Maybe Franco's better than the past two seasons? He was a bit better in 2018, after being below average in 2016, and horrible in 2017. His career OPS+ is 96, and most of the good in that was his half-season in 2015.

[Dirk41]

I can't wait for the collective disgust from the reignited causal fan when Realmuto leads off at times.

All Gabe Kapler Lineup?

Realmuto
Hoskins
Cutch
Harper
Segura
Franco
Torito
Pitcher
Hernandez

[zambonir]

I'm not sold on Franco yet either but it's still pretty exciting to see a guy like him batting 8th. Granted Kingery (at least in theory), Crawford and Alfaro had more defensive value but he's an offensive upgrade there for now. If he craters back to 2017 levels Kingery will play and/or there will be a July move.

And if Herrera gets back to playing good defense but still slumps offensively (hopefully not all the time!) you're just carrying a typical CF bat low in the order a la Inciarte or Kiermaier.

You forgot the line-up where Harper leads off Dirk!

[andyb]

I think we'll see our fair share of Harper in the 1st or 2nd spots, most likely number 2. That depends on how well the more traditional top of the lineup players do (Cutch, Cesar, Segura). I am guessing that Kapler does not really buy into the new requirement of speed and the "move hitters over" style of traditional 1 and 2 hitters and batting Harper 2nd gets him more at bats (and if the pitcher's batting 8th it is still a bit like being in the 3 spot).

Realmuto will get some time at the top too.

[flyers19rw]

If Caesar can get healthy, he should be the one to lead off. He has the potential to use his speed to bother the pitcher and put pressure on the IF defense. At his age, IDK how much one would want McCutcheon to be stealing bases. It's a long season and having him beat up himself on the base paths might not be the best of ideas. If the Phillies are going to just play station to station ball, it wouldn't make much difference which one lead off aside from the fact that McCutcheon has more power.

[Lucky_Beagle]

My concerns with Realmuto in the 5 slot are the days he doesn't start what do you do with the lineup? Slide everyone up a spot or does it depend upon the opposing starter?

[zambonir]

Well I imagine less than half the line-up will start more than 100 games from the same batting order spot, so I don't think it's a big deal. Especially if Franco or Herrera are any good.

[phillychuck]

One relevant (I guess) recent statistic regarding McCutchen is how well he did leading off for the Yankees last season. As a lead-off hitter (in 49 games) his OBP was .414 with a walk percentage of nearly 20% (which would be a near record level for a full season). The high walk percentage indicates Cutch was intentionally taking more pitches, knowing getting on base was his job, and he said as much last year. I think I'd start the year with I'm leading off, and put Cesar/Kingery at the bottom of the order as a second lead-off guy. At least if everyone is healthy, I'd go

Cutch (to take advantage of his discipline)
Segura (who makes a lot of contact--manage around the GDPs, which have been higher for him the last two years)
Harper
Hoskins
Realmuto
Herrera (to break up the righties)
Franco
P
Hernandez

[tom81]

Y

The high walk percentage indicates Cutch was intentionally taking more pitches, knowing getting on base was his job, and he said as much last year.

Cutch is a smart ball player. He would also realize that hitting second in front of Harper, Hoskins, and Realmuto that his job is also to get on base and he would take a lot of pitches there too. The key is who would get on base more Hernandez or Segura and you pick that guy, Hernandez, to hit in front of Harper, etc. if you like Cutch as your lead off hitter then you hit Hernandez 2nd, and since he is a switch hitter you could switch Harper and Hoskins if you want to break up the righties.

[phillychuck]

Cutch is a smart ball player. He would also realize that hitting second in front of Harper, Hoskins, and Realmuto that his job is also to get on base and he would take a lot of pitches there too. The key is who would get on base more Hernandez or Segura and you pick that guy, Hernandez, to hit in front of Harper, etc. if you like Cutch as your lead off hitter then you hit Hernandez 2nd, and since he is a switch hitter you could switch Harper and Hoskins if you want to break up the righties.

This would also work well, I think.

[andyb]

My concerns with Realmuto in the 5 slot are the days he doesn't start what do you do with the lineup? Slide everyone up a spot or does it depend upon the opposing starter?

If I had a guess our manager will continue to customize lineups for every pitcher and situation. I just doubt we'll have a set lineup at all and am not sure it matters. Realmuto will hit 2nd, 5th, and 7th almost randomly depending on the matchups. Bryce will hit 1, 2, or 3. Even lower when he is slumping. We'll have 125 different lineups over the course of the year by choice, not necessarily because of injury.