Phils Sign Bryce Harper, extend spring training invite

[el-pietro]

If we get in the region of 4.5 WAR between 2019 and 2022 then I'd be very happy. Hopefully then a slow decline rather than a cliff edge for the last (checks notes) 9 seasons! It would be great if he could put up an MVP caliber season or two but I don't think we should be expecting that. If he stays healthy and can be about average defensively until hes 30 then we should be very competitive with him in the outfield.

I do think theres a good chance he ends up at first base in a few years, maybe even at the cost of his friend and Boras stablemate Rhys Hoskins before eventually DHing but not for 6 plus years.

[zambonir]

Once there's a DH there won't necessarily be one guy doing it. There were only 9 qualified DHs in the AL last year and I don't imagine all their ABs came while DHing either. If they are all still here in 2022 and 2023 Hoskins, Harper and Realmuto could all be in the mix.

Let's hope this is the MVP season. Some people are saying crazy stuff. Joe Sheehan (who's usually not prone to hyperbole) thinks he'll end up with 600 HRs, which would require a makeable but still optimistic average of 33 over the 13 years. Harold Reynolds thinks he could go back to hitting 45 (or even 50) the next few seasons.

[bkox]

https://sports.yahoo.com/bryce-harper-jersey-sales-record-phillies-232229890.html

A day after he was officially introduced as the newest member of the Phillies and his jersey hit the team’s store, Harper’s jersey has broken the 24-hour sales record for a jersey launch in any sport. That data comes via Fanatics, which runs the Phillies’ online store.

[julio]

Also, will there soon be a change to the banner atop this page?

I can't update the banner until I have decent photos of the new regulars (Harper, McCutchen, Segura, Realmuto) in Phillies uniforms in game action. No way you're going to see a Nationals jersey up there!

I put together a (temporary) update. No Harper image yet - he wasn't even in the ST uniform yet today, and not in game action. I expect to update many of the images that are ST unis with in-season images when I can... and there may well be changes in personnel as well. Nominations?

[el-pietro]

Personally I'm a huge fan of Odúbel and his goofyness. I am also partial to the Cream Day game alternates. I love the pinstripes but I wouldn't be upset if they made the Cream the primary jersey. I thin the players you have up there now are the guys with the exception maybe of Nick Williams who I think it's fair to assume won't have a huge role in this team unless there is an injury to a key player.

[phillychuck]

Nice job with the banner!

[EastFallowfield]

Apparently the Athletic article on the Phils offseason makes it clear that after they met with Machado and Harper in person they decided on Harper.

[Philsmania]

Apparently the Athletic article on the Phils offseason makes it clear that after they met with Machado and Harper in person they decided on Harper.

It also seemed as if something put the Yankees off after their meeting with Machado and there were whispers that Hank Steinbrenner did not find Machado's explanation for the "Johnny Hustle" stuff to be satisfactory. In the end, the Yankees never even extended a formal offer. You can't help but wonder if his explanation also went over like a lead balloon to the Phillies' braintrust.

[el-pietro]

Reading the Athletic piece right now. Its gripping.

This part was especially interesting

The first offer was 15 years and $330 million. The Phillies made it Feb. 24. It started, during internal brainstorming, as a 20-year deal. Twenty years! Just an idea, one too insane and probably illegal because Major League Baseball would have viewed it as a circumvention of the competitive balance tax. The Phillies had their number — $330 million — and that was the number. They were flexible on the years.

Then the Dodgers flew to Las Vegas and the Giants followed. The Phillies knew Boras would create options. They countered with their choose-your-own-adventure. They offered a three- or four-year deal with a record $40 million average annual value. Then, they offered a middle-ground solution — a six- or seven-year deal with a $35 million average annual value. Those offers were designed to combat the Giants’ and Dodgers’ strategies.

Harper’s camp wanted the long-term deal, but at a higher figure than $330 million. They wanted a record length, a record overall total and a record average annual value. If you can get that from someone else, the Phillies said, take it. A $22 million average annual value in the 15-year offer was far too low, Boras said. Something had to give. It was almost March and the two sides were just repeating arguments. It was emotional.

On Thursday morning, when Klentak engaged Boras, there was traction. Rather than asking to raise the overall guaranteed total to bump the annual average value, Boras requested a shorter term. The Phillies lowered to 14 years. Still no deal. They went to 13 years. That bumped the average annual value over $25 million. It was a compromise for both sides.

[zambonir]

The craziest Phillies offseason ever: Inside the winding...

There is actually nothing in the story about their meeting with Machado or their impression of him as a person. No details about their meeting with Harper either (just the very last Middleton-only meeting). Just some details about the back-and-forth with Lozano. In the end they found Boras easier to work with too!

--
Lozano asked for offers between Christmas and New Year’s Day. He told clubs he would evaluate those offers and counter sometime in early January. The Phillies believed Machado could make a decision by the middle of the month, if not sooner.

Instead, the mind games intensified. Lozano was underwhelmed by the offers. Communication between the two sides became nonexistent. The Phillies expected a response to a counter offer in days. A week passed. It was a shrewd negotiating tactic by Lozano, albeit a frustrating one. This was gamesmanship. Lozano tested the Phillies — and others — to see how desperate they were for Machado. Wait, wait, wait and maybe someone blinks. The Phillies didn’t want to play the game, but they risked losing a player they liked. Padres general manager A.J. Preller visited Machado in Miami in mid-February. By then, the Phillies and Lozano had spoken. It was going to take at least 10 years and at least $300 million to be in the picture. The Phillies did not know if Lozano was bluffing. They had started around eight years and $225 million. They bumped it a few times but never made a final offer. There was a wide gap between the Phillies’ offer and Machado’s demand.

[andyb]

There is actually nothing in the story about their meeting with Machado or their impression of him as a person. No details about their meeting with Harper either (just the very last Middleton-only meeting). Just some details about the back-and-forth with Lozano. In the end they found Boras easier to work with too!

I am always a little wary about concluding too much. We just signed Bryce. We are of course going to say positive things about him and that we wanted him all the time. I am sure there is some truth to that since he did sign here, but we really can't conclude much about Machado. We clearly are becoming the new Boras home, for better or worse.

[zambonir]

The story doesn't say anything like that either. I mean, the implication is the same as always, they did not like Manny enough to top the Padres' offer. But they definitely liked him enough that they would have signed him on February 1 if they could have. Lozano played it the same as Boras except in his case he found a second team who got it done. I don't think they fell in love with Harper at Manny's expense; I think they felt the market conditions were such that they could get Bryce and of course they understood he'd sell more tickets.

[andyb]

There is a DH-related baseball argument for Harper also. Harper is the better offensive player. Manny could easily age out of being a good 3B in 5-8 years. Either could probably play 1B acceptably, but defense is not that important there. But if we assume that Harper could DH the last 5 years (or share DH and play OF part time) then it is very possible the better offensive player could age as well or better than Machado.

Plate discipline is a skill that should not go away and Harper has enough bat speed that he should not have to go through the speed up strategies that a player like Ryan Howard used in his later years.

Plus the LH power bat does fit our lineup needs. I buy these baseball reasons as more important in the decision to sign Harper than the Machado dislike rumors.

[zambonir]

It does say that they think MIddleton left the first meeting preferring Harper. And the stuff about him not wanting an opt-out had already come up (they just weren't sure they believed it). He said he wanted to know which team he'd go into the Hall with. I'm sure Manny was not nearly as seductive. Doesn't mean he came off badly.

[EastFallowfield]

Yes, it says that some in the front office think that Middleton decided on Harper after first meeting him, the no opt out statement and some 'looking in the eyes'.

And of course it notes that Boras was waiting for Machado to sign first, so the waiting so long all winter theme was really about waiting for Machado to sign, so not really Phils being negligent.

[zambonir]

also interesting details in there about the Corbin negotiations

[Florida_Sunshine]

By waiting as long as Boras typically does, he runs the risk of losing good suitors.

[andyb]

My point is that I don't necessarily believe the Phillies' impressions reported here. Do we expect anyone in the organization to say they really preferred Machado after signing Harper? They obviously liked Harper enough to sign him. That is apparent. There is just no way to get their true, honest impressions on either player from an interview after one of them has signed with you and one has not.

It is actually a strangely reported piece. I doubt that Gelb was treated like an embedded reporter. So all of this is told from the Phillies and the agent's perspective after the fact. It is interesting and probably has a lot of truth in it. I just suspect there is a fair amount of spin as well.

[zambonir]

By waiting as long as Boras typically does, he runs the risk of losing good suitors.

Sometimes he does but it seems like both agents played it perfectly. Lozano successfully got the Padres to outbid Chicago and the Phillies and Boras was able to use LA and SF, who were nowhere to be seen publicly for months, to get the Phillies to the record-breaking number (and that article also says the Phillies were prepared to match any short-term high AAV offers if necessary). The Phillies still won a few rounds of the negotiation by not having to do a 10-year deal (though their original offer was 15).

My point is that I don't necessarily believe the Phillies' impressions reported here. Do we expect anyone in the organization to say they really preferred Machado after signing Harper?

To me the article still makes it clear that they preferred Machado, even if part of that was that they didn't want to wait on Boras. Then it turns out they had to wait on Lozano too. If he had taken $275 he'd probably be on the Phillies. And if he'd only gotten $275 (from any team) who knows if Harper would have been able to get his record number.

[frylock]

I don't think I've posted since the signing, absolutely ecstatic. Didn't think there was any viable alternative and wanted an overpay if it meant not getting him since I saw no window to contend without him (upgrades were evident this offseason, but probably mid 80s wins, wildcard if lucky, but not a true contender). Was literally going to not go to any games if they didn't get him due to how much baseball and business sense it made to sign him, so I was sure to shell out some serious money on merchandise this weekend as it wouldn't be right if I didn't as much as I was complaining!

Looks like Klentak played his cards perfectly in the Boras negotiations, and what an offseason he had. Love seeing the electricity around Phillies baseball, which has been absent for quite some time.

Re: the article and preference, I wouldn't be surprised if management preferred Machado and ownership preferred Harper (though they were probably fine with either on their terms). Harper just made so much sense on both levels I'm glad that he was the one we signed.

SO EXCITED FOR THIS SEASON