Phillies Trade Double A RHP Franklyn Kilomé for Asdrubal Cabrera

[Austinfan]

This can all change quickly, Crawford to SS, Kingery to 2B, Quinn/Moniak in CF, Haseley/Hernandez in RF, Alfaro/Grullon at C, it's much easier to turn around defensively than to find guys who hit 20+ HRs with .800+ OPS.

And of course, we'll have Trout at a corner OF spot in 2021.

[LegoDoom]

I'm sure adjusting to the new systems/shifts/data is part of the defensive struggles, who knew it would end up mattering in the standings so quickly? Back in mid-June they were -8 in shift runs saved, but I read that all of the negatives had been in March and April. I would assume even the overall DRS numbers started with a big hole and was not as terrible in July.

This is what I alluded to in a previous post. It certainly seems like most of the negative defensive results were from earlier in the season. At a quick glance, you can say that it is because it takes time to adjust to new shifts philosophies, but is that really what it is? It could definitely be that or it could also be that as the HR rate goes up in the summer that the defense doesn't matter as much (I know the HR rate goes up, but haven't looked at how that affects defensive chances). If that is the case, then it could point to a reason why the defense hasn't been as bad as it was earlier in the year. It could also mean that it could be more of a factor come September.

But that is just a guess. Adjusting to new shifts, angles, etc. is certainly a viable theory. As is simple variance.

[EastFallowfield]

There was a play today where the ball went between Eflin's legs and was a routine out. Probably won't get remembered as much as a hit against the shift would be.

[Philsmania]

It seems clear the Phillies either have data that says the defense is better than the public metrics say or they have data that says it doesn't matter. Can't argue with the standings, though that won't be much consolation when Hoskins can't get to a tough fly with men on base in a deciding playoff game.

In that regard, Klentak seems to be following "old school sabermetrics". I'm talking '90s vintage. I remember having debates with other phans on the Hank Davis Phillies listserv back thenwho were very sabermetric who generally took the position which basically said, "defense, schmefense, just get the best offensive player you can at each position regardless of how good they are with the glove, whatever runs they create will more than take care of whatever runs their poor defense creates." They used to blithely dismiss Dave Hollins' defensive shortcomings. Analytics, since then, evolved to measure defense and its value though.

[andyb]

Analytics, since then, evolved to measure defense and its value though.

The Royals winning was the big thing that forced some of this re-evaluation. There is a logic though that if there are 20% fewer balls in play (and another 10% of hits disappear because of shifts) then defense is less important. How much less important is the key question. And just like working counts has a hard to measure positive effect on the offense that does not show up in individual WAR (i.e. we get to the bullpen in the 5th or 6th inning), there are similar effects on defense (needing to get more outs means your pitchers work harder).

The team may not know what is right here, but I am sure they think they are adding net runs with everything they do. I just hope they are not arrogant enough to think their theories are always correct because they may not be (i.e. the Royals showed everyone something they could not quantify effectively).

[Austinfan]

Of course, if Klentak has the AAA/Philly shuffle figured out, he can give up extra outs because he's rolling with a 13-14 man pitching staff.

[EastFallowfield]

Can someone explain to me who the defensive players we declined to use in lieu of offensive players, other than going with Crawford/Kingery over Galvis?

[zambonir]

Moving Hoskins would be the other big one. Made the defense in LF worse in exchange for his offense, and no defensive upgrade at 1B (Santana's not as good as his rep and Hoskins wasn't bad there).

Also moving Williams, who already wasn't a good defensive LF, to RF. And then playing him a lot more than Altherr. But with good reason!

And now acquiring Cabrera who was apparently the worst defensive SS in all of baseball and isn't that great at the other positions.

Going with Crawford over Galvis wasn't necessarily a choice about worsening the defense (once he established himself) but going with Kingery over Crawford while moving Crawford to 3B was.

I don't think anyone is saying they should play different, defense-first players now. But they could have acquired a defensive SS instead of Cabrera. They also could have acquired an OF in the off-season but they saw an opportunity cost with Santana. And obviously they didn't expect Altherr to fail, Williams was going to be fine backing up the two corners.

[EastFallowfield]

Guess we won't know if they like Crawford and Franco over Kingery at those two positions now until or if JP comes back. But don't know who the OF they could have acquired in the offseason is, so tough to debate if the decision was wrong without knowing who that was (but of course that allows for 20-20 hindsight selection).

[zambonir]

Well as andy has mentioned, Lorenzo Cain, but I don't think they were interested in signing a 32 year-old (or any free agent) to a five-year deal. Obviously they weren't in on Stanton or Martinez either. Santana may well have been, by far, the best player available that they could sign to a deal that they found reasonable/flexible. A lot of the other options have either bombed or wouldn't have been that much better in the OF anyway (Jay Bruce, Logan Morrison, Carlos Gomez).

I'm not criticizing them. It's just an interesting philosophy. And given how much the team has improved, possibly correct, if not clearly sustainable.

[andyb]

I have to think the Cabrera move was also done partially with September rosters in mind. So for 50% of the time he is with the team we will have an expanded bench that likely has all of Crawford, Florimon, and Valentin on it if they are healthy. So I imagine Cabrera will get spotted in the infield when we have fly ball pitchers (not Arrieta) and will play 7 innings of defense max most games.

In the outfield as well expect Quinn to be in the game in the 8th and 9th inning for defense, often after a pinch hit or run double switch. We cannot do as much of this maneuvering with a 4-man bench. But in September it will be like an 8-10 man bench and even in the playoffs it will be a 5 or 6 man bench.

[Austinfan]

And this is a one year thing, I think next year some moves will be made.

Players tend to work this out by their play, if Moniak or Haseley or Quinn can hit, they start and improve the defense, same with Kingery at 2B or Crawford at SS or Alfaro improving in both dimensions at C or Grullon pushing him in a couple years.

When you're trading off offense for defense or visa versa, what you're really saying is you don't have enough talent - because top players tend to excel at both.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Absolutely agree. I have to admit, this is more fun watching this unfold than I had expected though I kind of feel we are playing with house money this year.

[zambonir]

even in the playoffs it will be a 5 or 6 man bench.

Astros and Dodgers both went with five in the WS. I suppose you could get away with six in NLDS. But you're right, they only have four weeks of this and three of it should also be with Crawford.

Honestly no matter how you slice it Kingery still feels like the guy they can do without for a month. And even just two-three weeks in AAA probably wouldn't hurt him.

[andyb]

I guess they are so attuned to using 4-6 relievers in a game that they will not want to disrupt it that much, especially if we have a bullpen without a clear pecking order (We have 5 or 6 guys that pitch in the 7-9th inning situations while most teams try to whittle that down to 3). So a 5-man playoff bench is probably likely. More if we are in the wild card game of course.

[Squire]

BA ranked Kilome as the 25th best prospect that got traded at the deadline (and that didn't include the Pirates guys in the Archer deal). He's really fallen a bit.

[andyb]

Fangraphs ranks Kilome 8th though among prospects moved:

Ranking the Prospects Traded at the Deadline | FanGraphs Baseball

Wags down at 62nd out of 65 total.

[allentown]

Wags deserves to be that far down. Most interesting to me is that Diaz is only rated #3 and the next highest rated guy in the Machado trade is way down at #40. Also surprising that, at least in these guys' view, Hand netted the top-rated prospect.

[Austinfan]

Kilome is strictly projected off velocity and a promising curve, his K rate is horrible for a top prospect and his BB% is bad, and he lacks a 3rd pitch.

He's 23 and running out of time. If he can't develop better command and a third pitch, he's at best a setup RP, which just isn't that valuable (Garcia).

I also think Medina is overrated, but he has more time to turn it around, and he's outperformed Kilome at the same age. Medina has a full repertoire, mastering that and improving command is far more valuable than 1-2 more MPH.

Our two best starters are Nola and Arrieta and both throw 92-93.
Eflin was our third best pitcher until his blister, and that was less due to velocity than improved command and secondary pitches. He added a MPH to his 4 and 2 seamer, but also sharpened his slider and curve. His next step is developing his changeup, do that and he has a shot at #1 starter.

[andyb]

The assumption on Kilome is that in the bullpen he would be more like 98-99 and would be closer material. That is why his fallback risk is better than what his AA starting numbers might say. He's 23. His velocity is fine. He is actually not running out of time. He could be in the majors next June if they moved him to the bullpen and his stuff ticked up.